“Putting the country first may well mean we would be better in opposition, by far….People feel it is going to be hard to drive the government and that, therefore, the people we represent might be better protected by leading the opposition.

“I think there is a strong view along those lines.”

Broughan is the first high-profile TD to publicly oppose a Coalition, though Labour Youth President Colm Lawless Councillor Cian O’Callaghan, Blanchardstown Councillor Patrick Nulty and the UNITE union have also come out against:

“”I’ve been talking to Labour party members across the country, grassroots members, councillors, and I’m also aware that a number of TDs in the party have some strong reservations about the potential for a Fine Gael-led government,” the Howth/Malahide councillor said.

“You can be absolutely certain that you’re going to see a very strong, vigorous and healthy debate on Sunday and we’ll wait to see what the outcome is.” (Cian O’Callaghan)

“I fear that Labour’s influence will be minuscule and that we are about to allow Fine Gael a free reign on introducing harsh austerity measures which will hit ordinary people hardest..I fear that Labour’s influence will be minuscule and that we are about to allow Fine Gael a free reign on introducing harsh austerity measures which will hit ordinary people hardest,” said the Trinity College Dublin student.

“Fine Gael do not rely on Labour to remain in office and this is a serious concern…In the case of not holding a balance of power it is wise for us to remain in opposition.”

Mr O’Callaghan said four TDs had personally expressed their opposition to him about a prospective coalition.

“Unite has campaigned during this general election for a Labour-led left government…We were promoting that our members would vote for the Labour Party; we wanted Eamon Gilmore as taoiseach.” (Jimmy Kelly, UNITE Regional Secretary)

“If a programme for government is put to Labour members, I believe we should reject it and instead put the country first and push for . . . transformation in our political system” (Councillor Patrick Nulty)

“Meanwhile, Labour Party MEP Proinsias De Rossa has said his party should be prepared to go into Opposition.

In a statement, Mr De Rossa said that Labour should defend the interests of its core constituency – low and middle-income earners – by having key elements of its social democratic policies implemented.

He said that if Fine Gael did not accept these requirements, Labour should not enter a Coalition.” (RTE)

Meanwhile, FG’s Immigration and Integration Spokesperson Lucinda Creighton has called for the party to sound out Independent TDs as her supporters were rejecting Labour, “higher taxes” and “going soft on cuts”:

“People voting for me and voting for my colleagues were coming from Fianna Fáil and PD backgrounds. They were voting against Labour and against higher taxes and going soft on cuts. We will be punished if we were to say we would not try to see if there were other viable alternatives”

Creighton’s stance comes amid tensions over the next occupant of the Department of Finance and contrasts with FG Grandees who have largely dismissed a deal with “flakey” Independents. This is in spite of a public offer from Dublin South poll-topper Shane Ross TD for an agreement with up to 8 Independent TDs. Among Independents who might be prepared to support a FG-minority government are Noel Grealish (publicly pledged for vote for Kenny as a “West of Ireland” Taoiseach, former FG TD Michael Lowry, Michael Healy-Rae, former FF TD Tom Fleming, Luke “Ming” Flanagan (who claims to agree with many FG policies), Stephen Donnelly (backed by David McWilliams in Wicklow), former FF TD Mattie McGrath and Shane Ross. Neither of these constitute part of the Leftist-bloc of ULA or SP Independents. An alliance with FG would produce 84 seats and allow FG to reward impressive performers who played a decisive role in shaping policy and building the foundations for the party’s spectacular gains which have made the party – for the first time in Irish political history – the largest in the State. A Coalition with Labour, in constrast, is likely to require the sacrifice of up to 6 Cabinet seats – possibly including the ‘Holy Grail’ of the Department of Finance. With double the seat numbers of Labour, the surrender of the most powerful position at the Cabinet (arguably more so in a Coalition than that of Taoiseach) would raise the spectre of a repeat of the unpopular 1982-7 FG-Labour Government where the senior party was abandoned en masse in the succeeding General Election as conservative and libertarian FG voters defected to the PDs, depriving the party of one-quarter of its vote and consigning it to 22 years (consecutive apart from an interlude in 1992-4) to the political-wilderness.

Any Coalition agreement will have to be ratified by Labour’s Special Delegate Conference and by FG TDs and Senators. Unions will have 10% of the votes while Labour Youth will havd 45 votes at the conference.

That hope, and the fact that they remain in a strong (if not insurmountable) position in Dublin gives the lie to a week of spats between the two major parties. For Fine Gael, especially for the likes of Noonan and Varadker in particular, the numbers bear out that for FG to get close to a majority with 42% of the vote, Labour’s position in Dublin has to be eroded. 46 seats are available in Dublin, if FG were to come second or leave little or no gap between themselves and Labour, it could mean the difference between 72-75 seats and 80-83 seats.

When this is added to a gap between the parties on fiscal and social issues, it puts the tit-for-tat of the last week into stark relief. They are at odds on the IMF, fiscal management, growth projections, the health service and other issues. It won’t stop a deal being done, but if FG can get away without Labour, they will do all they can to do it.

This weekend marks the point, with two weeks left, when most voters begin to pay attention in standard elections, while we can argue the public are switched on already (for the past two years almost), there is still a feeling that the final two weeks are the formative period – when decisions on preferences are made and stuck to. It will be interesting to see how the parties try to communicate with voters in this time – whether debates, policies or slip-ups will swing people in behind anyone other than FG.

It is certainly all to play for, but we can expect to see plenty more spat between Fine Gael and Labour as the focus for the bigger party zones in on governing alone. Dublin is the key to FG’s last two weeks and they are sure to know it. Kenny will be taking part in the 5-way leader’s debate on The Frontline on Monday but if last week’s debate were the place to frame the debate, Mondays will be the place to get a single, memorable sound-bite.

Though Martin is loath to utter them (pull the other one), the soundbite will be the best way to ensure that something is achieved from a 5 person all-in with Pat Kenny (apologies for the unfortunate mental images). The challenge is there too for Labour, they have lost a lot of ground from their peak. Constant attacks from FF and FG have hurt them, added to by the failure (see Jan O Sullivan on the banks Weds on Today with PK) of front benchers to get the fiscal policy across under cross-examination. If this is repeating on the doors, Dublin is a battleground for them.

Edit @ 8.30: Just to add from Noel Whelan’s column today that Michael Marsh’s poll of polls (excluding tonights result) now has FG and Labour on parity in Dublin. Fine Gael are on 30.3% while Labour are on 29.9%.

In the 2009 local elections, the breakdown was as follows (FG first, Lab second);
Dublin City: 18% / 29%
Fingal: 20% / 25%
SoDub Co: 27% / 25%
DL/R’down: 34% / 22%

The difference between 2009 figures and the overall level of support for parties in Dublin is difficult to assess at a remove, one would need to spend a lot of time with the breakdown of boundaries for the election. This is due to the mixture of 3/4 seaters in many council areas. However a top-level analysis suggests that Labour have grown their overall support in Dublin’s suburbs, or have powered ahead in the Dublin City area. I think it unlikely to assume Labour on 40% in the Dublin City area and rather more likely that they have added on a few percentage points in the outer Dublin areas encompassed by Fingal, South Dublin Co. and Dun Laoghaire. Though only a few.

For Fine Gael the figures are much more promising, aside from Dun Laoghaire and their strong position in South Dublin, they didn’t break 30% in Dublin in 2009. Therefore the implication of the current 30% figure for Dublin suggests they have solidified their presence in South Dublin but lifted support in the other three council areas. They need it.

The current figures are a statistical dead heat. They are not sufficient for Fine Gael to swing into overall majority territory. The major problem they face is the Dublin is a mixture of 3-4-5 seaters, rather than a smaller number of 5 seaters. They will have to work extremely hard to take 2 seats in 3 or 4 seaters. They have shown capable of taking 3 seats in Dublin South, but the dog-fight in Dun Laoghaire should see them suffer unless there is a ‘wave election’ for Fine Gael (not something I am ruling out).

My feeling is that Fine Gael have made up a lot of ground in Dublin, but may need a much larger overall lead on Labour to get results – smaller seat numbers per constituency are disproportional. To convert a percentage into seats requires a lot of organisation and luck.

The policy is worth reading, for it suggests eliminating 8,000 jobs (as part of FG’s overall 30,000 target?) from the HSE and dismantling the behemoth by 2018/2019. Specifics and detail, well that is for next week.

According to Reilly:

“In 2001, Micheál Martin, then Minister for Health, announced his intention to end waiting lists by 2004. Both he and the HSE have spectacularly failed to meet this target.

“We recently witnessed 569 patients on trolleys in A&E and over 19,000 patients waiting more than three months for treatment.

“The message is simple; ‘Micheál Martin’s HSE is not working’. Fine Gael’s FairCare will completely reform the health system and is divided into three key phases:

Phase 1 (2011-14): Fine Gael will reform the current system to bring down waiting lists and build a stronger primary care system.
Phase 2 (2014): Fine Gael will change the way hospitals area paid. Block grants will be replaced by a system based on the numbers of patients they treat – ‘money follows the patient’. This will increase productivity by between 5% and 10%.
Phase 3: (2016): Fine Gael will begin the introduction of UHI. However, we know this is a long term project and bedding down all of reforms will take place during the following five years.

Well worth taking this into your electoral consideration – the HSE has claim to a huge amount of exchquer funding, in an era of cuts it is already in the firing line. FG assert you can lose 8,000 jobs and move to their system without affecting frontline services. As James Reilly is deputy-leader of Fine Gael, it seems a fair bet that the party will not allow the department to move to any coalition partner after the election. The proposal for the separation of “the purchaser of healthcare (the State) from the providers of healthcare (the hospitals)” implies the space for growth of private, for-profit hospitals.

For Labour, a universal health insurance system is underpinned by a public hospital systems drawing on public funds. We should naturally wait for the Labour health policy for full detail but as they have been on this since 2001, we are justified in not anticipating huge change. The ideological ground here is far tougher than on the economy. This is definitely something voters should be thinking about deeply prior to election day as there are plenty of non-economic social issues that need to be addressed in the post-tiger budget deficit era.

If you are looking at points of difference, you can start with the article Sara Burke (HSE analyst and journalist) wrote in response to the release of Fair Care first time around. Via her blog.

There was Enda’s Empty Chairism.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Noonan’s Ralph Wiggum closeup.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Oh and the strange Gilmore meet and greet at shopping centres yesterday.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Forget about Nob Nation et al, the Nine News and reality is far more amusing!

The meaty part of the exchange is below the fold, but in essence Lenihan claimed that Labour party proposals on the mixture of the tax increases and spending cuts had been presented by the unions in social partnership discussions over the last two years, and since the unions and Labour are “symbiotically linked”, Labour was thus effectively in social partnership.  Lenihan added the extra dig of mentioning that he could see “Kim Il Sung type pictures” of Eamon Gilmore on Liberty Hall.  Which is a bit of laugh if you consider that had the crash not happened when it did, Liberty Hall would by now be renamed Ahern Hall.

In a separate part of the discussion, Lenihan makes clear his bitterness at the Greens at their November announcement putting a lifespan on the government without actually withdrawing from it.

Deputy Brian Lenihan: …. That said, as a result of Government decisions and budgets adopted in recent years, marginal tax rates have slipped up beyond the 50% level. I have always believed that marginal tax rates should not exceed 50%. I have fought with might and main against it, but did so against a torrent of opposition, especially from the Labour Party and, of course, even more so from Sinn Féin which seems to believe there is a limitless pot of taxation and that taxation can be introduced and extended to 55%, 60%, 65% and 70%.

Senator Alex White:   Nonsense.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   This was raised with me in social partnership.

Senator Alex White:  Read the manifesto next week and see it.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:  This issue was raised by me with social partners in social partnership negotiations—–

Senator Alex White:   The Minister is making it up now.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   —–who objected to pay cuts and who turned around and asked why I would not bring in a 65% income tax rate.

Senator Alex White:   Was the Labour Party in social partnership? I do not remember that.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:  These persons are all symbiotically linked.

Senator Alex White:  That must be new. That is new to me, that nobody is invited to social partnership.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   I have the honour of representing a north-side Dublin constituency and when I pass Liberty Hall I see Kim Il-sung-type pictures of Deputy Gilmore on the building.

Senator Alex White:   It was former Taoiseach, Deputy Bertie Ahern, who invited them all in.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:  Please stop pretending to me that you are not symbiotically linked with all these people.

Senator Alex White:  Do not offend Senator Harris now.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   I look forward seeing the Labour Party’s manifesto.

Senator Alex White:   The Minister will see it quickly. I wonder has Fianna Fáil one at all and who will write it.

An Cathaoirleach:   Has Senator Alex White a point of order?

Deputy Brian Lenihan:  I have the honour of having written the manifesto for the next four years for this country—–

Senator Alex White:   Agreed.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:  —–and Senator Alex White will depart from it at his peril. That is all I can tell him.

Senator Alex White:   That is classic hubris. That is classic Fianna Fáil narrative.

Deputy Brian Lenihan: There is no question of hubris. There are modifications that can be introduced, but the broad direction of that manifesto in the national recovery plan is that two thirds of the adjustment must take place on the expenditure and one third on the taxation side. Although Fine Gael is maintaining that it can make an even bigger adjustment on the expenditure side, it will find it will be difficult to do that in office. On the other hand, the Labour Party is saying that half of the adjustment must take place on the taxation side and Sinn Féin is maintaining that two thirds of it can be done on the taxation side, which is an impossibility. It is a politically attractive impossibility—–

Senator Alex White: The Minister has increased taxes considerably.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:  —–because it allows them engage in this endless politics of begrudgery—–

Senator Alex White:  We have never had such tax increases as we have had from the Minister.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   —–that there is someone else who has to pay.

An Cathaoirleach:  The Minister is replying to the points raised. No interruption.

Senator Alex White: The Minister put the taxes up madly.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   There is always someone else who must pay.

Senator Alex White:  Some €1.5 billion of tax increases.

Deputy Brian Lenihan: It allows Senator Alex White to go to the doorstep and state to the occupant that he or she is a poor man or woman who is being mercilessly treated by the last Government, that his party accepts all that it did and will not change the measures even though the party opposed them, but there is someone else who can pay in the future. There is not—–

Senator Alex White:   Read the document. Read the manifesto.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   —–and that will not work as an economic policy for this country.

Senator Alex White:  Will Fianna Fáil have a manifesto?

We believe that there is a clear duty on all members of Dáil Éireann to facilitate the passage of these measures in the uniquely serious circumstances in which we find ourselves. The political and financial stability of the State requires no less.

So again ministers who couldn’t have cared less about the Dail in the day-to-day running of the country suddenly want all its members aboard for a budget which they have no hand in creating.  Perhaps if you like parliamentary government, it should be seen as a good news that the days of the country being run through social partnership meetings and quangos have been put to one side.   But is it really the function of the parliamentary opposition to wait every 2 decades until the country is in a real shambles and then be called upon to vote with Fianna Fail for the sake of the country?   If, as periodically comes up for discussion, you take the view that there’s a dearth of talent in Irish politics, it doesn’t help when that’s the basic job description.

After a crazy week in which I visited Tralee, Tuam, Rathowen and Galway, I finally headed for Donegal South-West last Saturday morning. I’ve never worked a by election campaign before, so there’s always a certain amount of excitement involved in getting stuck into something I haven’t been involved in before. And I had only met Frank a few times before, so I was very curious to see what the reaction within the constituency to his candidacy would be.

As I arrived in Bundoran, I was greeted by the familiar sight of campaign posters (including one bizarre Fianna Fáil poster using this image in which Brian ó Domhnaill’s eyes have been photoshopped in a scary way). Nothing makes me feel like a campaign has started quite like election posters – I think they have a limited enough impact, but you can usually judge the strength of a campaign reasonably well based on the quality of the postering. On that analysis, Pearse Doherty, ó Domhnaill and Frank McBrearty are the only candidates at the races – Barry O’Neill’s postering is dreadfully patchy. None of the candidates running away with the postering race, but Labour, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin have stolen a bit of a march at this point.

Having dropped our stuff off at Jackson’s Hotel in Ballybofey, myself and Karen raced to catch up with the canvass team in Dungloe. Pretty soon, we bumped into Deaglán (whose piece on today’s Times can be found here), and shortly after that, Frank and the gang rolled into town. Talkin’ bout a revolution was blaring from the McBrearty mobile campaign unit, and a huge team of local members and Labour TDs (Eamon Gilmore, Emmet Stagg, Jack Wall, Joe Costello as well as Cllrs. Emer Costello and Jimmy Harte) descended upon Dungloe.

Using this leaflet, the town of Dungloe was soon canvassed to within an inch of it’s life – a fate likely to be repeated several times during the remainder of the campaign. The first encouraging thing for me, was that Frank is clearly extremely well known – there was no need for him to be introduced to voters, which is always an enormous benefit in a short campaign like this one. And the second encouraging sign for me, was the level of popularity with which he was greeted. As we continued the canvass across the Glenties electoral area, the response was similar, and was repeated further at masses in Ballybofey, and canvassing in Donegal town on Sunday.

It’s certainly no secret that Labour have been weak in Donegal in recent years. In the 2007 General Election, Seamus Rodgers was our candidate, polling 2.79% of the vote, or 1,111 first preferences. By the time of the local elections last year, this had risen considerably, with Labour taking 8.36% of the vote, or 3,476 votes across the local electoral areas of Glenties, Donegal and Stranorlar (where Frank was elected to the council with 12.5% of the vote). In addition to Frank’s election to the council, Seamus Rodgers was very nearly elected in Glenties, while Martin Farren was elected in Inishowen (Donegal North-East), and has been joined by Cllr. Jimmy Harte from Letterkenny on the Labour benches of the council in recent months.

The point of which is that Labour are clearly building a new vote in Donegal, which makes us contenders in a race we have always been written out of. So much so, I put my money where my mouth was today, and put 50 quid on Frank to win. He may be an outsider, but based on what I saw over the weekend, at 11/1, he’s the best value dark horse I’ve come across in a while…

As an aside, Suzy has put together a good round-up of the campaign to date, which is well worth checking out for anyone keeping an eye on the campaign.

MANY IN Britain, who came through the harrowing years of war, the London blitz, the struggle to defend against invasion and the eventual defeat of Germany, recall the period as one of great personal fulfilment and satisfaction. British political parties set aside their differences and formed a national government of unity for the duration of the war. The prime minister’s inspired leadership rallied people to the cause; the parliamentary routine of peacetime was abandoned. A united people responded to the challenge and, under conditions of great hardship, contributed to the war effort and ultimately took satisfaction in the successful outcome.

If this is meant as an analogy to Ireland’s current situation, it’s a very incomplete one.

Here’s the thing: Britain’s National Government was formed in 1931, in the midst of the Great Depression, not with the onset of the World War II.  Here’s the relevant Wikipedia entry and the key thing that comes out is that while economic crisis did produce a durable national government, it didn’t produce consensus.  Instead, 2 of the then big parties (Labour and Liberal) had splits, while over time the government became a Tory Plus model, albeit with hybrid policies, for example austerity also with protectionism and devaluation.

So in the Irish case, if FF saw salvation (i.e. a chance at staying in power) coming in the shape of Labour and FG endorsement, which parties would be most likely to split and whose policies would emerge from the sausage grinder at the end?

And incidentally, when a true national unity government was formed in 1940, the one that Walsh has in mind, it involved the resignation of the Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain.   It’s hard to see Irish politics producing an admission of failure.

FG 31 (-2)
FF24,(nc)
LAB 23 (-4)
SF 10 (+2)
GR 3 (+1)
Oths 9 (+3)

Underlines volatility of Labour vote. Also public satisfaction with Brian Cowen is 19% to 64% dissatisfied and 17% undecided. 29% are more likekly to vote vote FF with Cowen replaced, including 21% of FG and Labour voters. Will FF be forced to turn to SF and Independents to retain power?