“Putting the country first may well mean we would be better in opposition, by far….People feel it is going to be hard to drive the government and that, therefore, the people we represent might be better protected by leading the opposition.

“I think there is a strong view along those lines.”

Broughan is the first high-profile TD to publicly oppose a Coalition, though Labour Youth President Colm Lawless Councillor Cian O’Callaghan, Blanchardstown Councillor Patrick Nulty and the UNITE union have also come out against:

“”I’ve been talking to Labour party members across the country, grassroots members, councillors, and I’m also aware that a number of TDs in the party have some strong reservations about the potential for a Fine Gael-led government,” the Howth/Malahide councillor said.

“You can be absolutely certain that you’re going to see a very strong, vigorous and healthy debate on Sunday and we’ll wait to see what the outcome is.” (Cian O’Callaghan)

“I fear that Labour’s influence will be minuscule and that we are about to allow Fine Gael a free reign on introducing harsh austerity measures which will hit ordinary people hardest..I fear that Labour’s influence will be minuscule and that we are about to allow Fine Gael a free reign on introducing harsh austerity measures which will hit ordinary people hardest,” said the Trinity College Dublin student.

“Fine Gael do not rely on Labour to remain in office and this is a serious concern…In the case of not holding a balance of power it is wise for us to remain in opposition.”

Mr O’Callaghan said four TDs had personally expressed their opposition to him about a prospective coalition.

“Unite has campaigned during this general election for a Labour-led left government…We were promoting that our members would vote for the Labour Party; we wanted Eamon Gilmore as taoiseach.” (Jimmy Kelly, UNITE Regional Secretary)

“If a programme for government is put to Labour members, I believe we should reject it and instead put the country first and push for . . . transformation in our political system” (Councillor Patrick Nulty)

“Meanwhile, Labour Party MEP Proinsias De Rossa has said his party should be prepared to go into Opposition.

In a statement, Mr De Rossa said that Labour should defend the interests of its core constituency – low and middle-income earners – by having key elements of its social democratic policies implemented.

He said that if Fine Gael did not accept these requirements, Labour should not enter a Coalition.” (RTE)

Meanwhile, FG’s Immigration and Integration Spokesperson Lucinda Creighton has called for the party to sound out Independent TDs as her supporters were rejecting Labour, “higher taxes” and “going soft on cuts”:

“People voting for me and voting for my colleagues were coming from Fianna Fáil and PD backgrounds. They were voting against Labour and against higher taxes and going soft on cuts. We will be punished if we were to say we would not try to see if there were other viable alternatives”

Creighton’s stance comes amid tensions over the next occupant of the Department of Finance and contrasts with FG Grandees who have largely dismissed a deal with “flakey” Independents. This is in spite of a public offer from Dublin South poll-topper Shane Ross TD for an agreement with up to 8 Independent TDs. Among Independents who might be prepared to support a FG-minority government are Noel Grealish (publicly pledged for vote for Kenny as a “West of Ireland” Taoiseach, former FG TD Michael Lowry, Michael Healy-Rae, former FF TD Tom Fleming, Luke “Ming” Flanagan (who claims to agree with many FG policies), Stephen Donnelly (backed by David McWilliams in Wicklow), former FF TD Mattie McGrath and Shane Ross. Neither of these constitute part of the Leftist-bloc of ULA or SP Independents. An alliance with FG would produce 84 seats and allow FG to reward impressive performers who played a decisive role in shaping policy and building the foundations for the party’s spectacular gains which have made the party – for the first time in Irish political history – the largest in the State. A Coalition with Labour, in constrast, is likely to require the sacrifice of up to 6 Cabinet seats – possibly including the ‘Holy Grail’ of the Department of Finance. With double the seat numbers of Labour, the surrender of the most powerful position at the Cabinet (arguably more so in a Coalition than that of Taoiseach) would raise the spectre of a repeat of the unpopular 1982-7 FG-Labour Government where the senior party was abandoned en masse in the succeeding General Election as conservative and libertarian FG voters defected to the PDs, depriving the party of one-quarter of its vote and consigning it to 22 years (consecutive apart from an interlude in 1992-4) to the political-wilderness.

Any Coalition agreement will have to be ratified by Labour’s Special Delegate Conference and by FG TDs and Senators. Unions will have 10% of the votes while Labour Youth will havd 45 votes at the conference.

That hope, and the fact that they remain in a strong (if not insurmountable) position in Dublin gives the lie to a week of spats between the two major parties. For Fine Gael, especially for the likes of Noonan and Varadker in particular, the numbers bear out that for FG to get close to a majority with 42% of the vote, Labour’s position in Dublin has to be eroded. 46 seats are available in Dublin, if FG were to come second or leave little or no gap between themselves and Labour, it could mean the difference between 72-75 seats and 80-83 seats.

When this is added to a gap between the parties on fiscal and social issues, it puts the tit-for-tat of the last week into stark relief. They are at odds on the IMF, fiscal management, growth projections, the health service and other issues. It won’t stop a deal being done, but if FG can get away without Labour, they will do all they can to do it.

This weekend marks the point, with two weeks left, when most voters begin to pay attention in standard elections, while we can argue the public are switched on already (for the past two years almost), there is still a feeling that the final two weeks are the formative period – when decisions on preferences are made and stuck to. It will be interesting to see how the parties try to communicate with voters in this time – whether debates, policies or slip-ups will swing people in behind anyone other than FG.

It is certainly all to play for, but we can expect to see plenty more spat between Fine Gael and Labour as the focus for the bigger party zones in on governing alone. Dublin is the key to FG’s last two weeks and they are sure to know it. Kenny will be taking part in the 5-way leader’s debate on The Frontline on Monday but if last week’s debate were the place to frame the debate, Mondays will be the place to get a single, memorable sound-bite.

Though Martin is loath to utter them (pull the other one), the soundbite will be the best way to ensure that something is achieved from a 5 person all-in with Pat Kenny (apologies for the unfortunate mental images). The challenge is there too for Labour, they have lost a lot of ground from their peak. Constant attacks from FF and FG have hurt them, added to by the failure (see Jan O Sullivan on the banks Weds on Today with PK) of front benchers to get the fiscal policy across under cross-examination. If this is repeating on the doors, Dublin is a battleground for them.

Edit @ 8.30: Just to add from Noel Whelan’s column today that Michael Marsh’s poll of polls (excluding tonights result) now has FG and Labour on parity in Dublin. Fine Gael are on 30.3% while Labour are on 29.9%.

In the 2009 local elections, the breakdown was as follows (FG first, Lab second);
Dublin City: 18% / 29%
Fingal: 20% / 25%
SoDub Co: 27% / 25%
DL/R’down: 34% / 22%

The difference between 2009 figures and the overall level of support for parties in Dublin is difficult to assess at a remove, one would need to spend a lot of time with the breakdown of boundaries for the election. This is due to the mixture of 3/4 seaters in many council areas. However a top-level analysis suggests that Labour have grown their overall support in Dublin’s suburbs, or have powered ahead in the Dublin City area. I think it unlikely to assume Labour on 40% in the Dublin City area and rather more likely that they have added on a few percentage points in the outer Dublin areas encompassed by Fingal, South Dublin Co. and Dun Laoghaire. Though only a few.

For Fine Gael the figures are much more promising, aside from Dun Laoghaire and their strong position in South Dublin, they didn’t break 30% in Dublin in 2009. Therefore the implication of the current 30% figure for Dublin suggests they have solidified their presence in South Dublin but lifted support in the other three council areas. They need it.

The current figures are a statistical dead heat. They are not sufficient for Fine Gael to swing into overall majority territory. The major problem they face is the Dublin is a mixture of 3-4-5 seaters, rather than a smaller number of 5 seaters. They will have to work extremely hard to take 2 seats in 3 or 4 seaters. They have shown capable of taking 3 seats in Dublin South, but the dog-fight in Dun Laoghaire should see them suffer unless there is a ‘wave election’ for Fine Gael (not something I am ruling out).

My feeling is that Fine Gael have made up a lot of ground in Dublin, but may need a much larger overall lead on Labour to get results – smaller seat numbers per constituency are disproportional. To convert a percentage into seats requires a lot of organisation and luck.

The policy is worth reading, for it suggests eliminating 8,000 jobs (as part of FG’s overall 30,000 target?) from the HSE and dismantling the behemoth by 2018/2019. Specifics and detail, well that is for next week.

According to Reilly:

“In 2001, Micheál Martin, then Minister for Health, announced his intention to end waiting lists by 2004. Both he and the HSE have spectacularly failed to meet this target.

“We recently witnessed 569 patients on trolleys in A&E and over 19,000 patients waiting more than three months for treatment.

“The message is simple; ‘Micheál Martin’s HSE is not working’. Fine Gael’s FairCare will completely reform the health system and is divided into three key phases:

Phase 1 (2011-14): Fine Gael will reform the current system to bring down waiting lists and build a stronger primary care system.
Phase 2 (2014): Fine Gael will change the way hospitals area paid. Block grants will be replaced by a system based on the numbers of patients they treat – ‘money follows the patient’. This will increase productivity by between 5% and 10%.
Phase 3: (2016): Fine Gael will begin the introduction of UHI. However, we know this is a long term project and bedding down all of reforms will take place during the following five years.

Well worth taking this into your electoral consideration – the HSE has claim to a huge amount of exchquer funding, in an era of cuts it is already in the firing line. FG assert you can lose 8,000 jobs and move to their system without affecting frontline services. As James Reilly is deputy-leader of Fine Gael, it seems a fair bet that the party will not allow the department to move to any coalition partner after the election. The proposal for the separation of “the purchaser of healthcare (the State) from the providers of healthcare (the hospitals)” implies the space for growth of private, for-profit hospitals.

For Labour, a universal health insurance system is underpinned by a public hospital systems drawing on public funds. We should naturally wait for the Labour health policy for full detail but as they have been on this since 2001, we are justified in not anticipating huge change. The ideological ground here is far tougher than on the economy. This is definitely something voters should be thinking about deeply prior to election day as there are plenty of non-economic social issues that need to be addressed in the post-tiger budget deficit era.

If you are looking at points of difference, you can start with the article Sara Burke (HSE analyst and journalist) wrote in response to the release of Fair Care first time around. Via her blog.

In case you missed it, Enda offered reason number 453,665 for not heading to TV3 on Tuesday for the first 3-way leaders debate. He has a scheduling problem and has to be in Sligo. What a pity notice was so short eh? (For their part, TV3 have a number of videos on their site addressing the issues raised by Kenny).

With 2-3 debates left to avoid, it looks like Enda might need a hand with a few more reasons to duck debates – he has used up all his others. All ideas welcome in the comments.

Suzy has audio boo of the presser (embeds below the fold).

I know that Kenny has a point regarding Browne’s comments but there are a few points that worry me; FG told Vincent his apology was accepted and now it isn’t, Kenny feels confident enough in his poll position to duck debates, an early debate to focus on policy and help craft a narrative from nonsense and noise is lost. I admit he has a lot to lose, by ducking this debate he has put huge pressure and expectation on his ultimate debate outing. He has also raised what would be quite low stakes.

So any more ideas for #Endasnextexcuse are welcome below.

Audio of today’s presser:

There was Enda’s Empty Chairism.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Noonan’s Ralph Wiggum closeup.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Oh and the strange Gilmore meet and greet at shopping centres yesterday.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Forget about Nob Nation et al, the Nine News and reality is far more amusing!

Kenny’s speech is below the fold but the main focus from Fine Gael is a five point plan – hopefully we won’t be asked to sign it – around the themes of; Protecting and creating jobs, Introducing better, fairer budgets to keep taxes low, create a completely new health system, smaller, better government with the people’s money spent wisely on vital public services, a political system that achieves more and costs less, with the Government leading by example .

Full speech below the fold.

It’s my great pleasure to welcome the Fine Gael team for the 2011 General Election here to the Mansion House.

One hundred and two proud and committed men and women. Proud and committed.

And also ready.

Ready to stand for our people, our communities and our country. Ready to fight and win this election.

And above all, ready to Get Ireland Working.

That’s why we’re here today. That’s why we’re standing for election. Not for ourselves. Or for the Party. But for our people and our country.

That’s why I will never apologise for using the international network and respect that Fine Gael has built over many decades to further our national interests. That’s why Michael Noonan and I went to Brussels on Friday to signal our intent to renegotiate the bailout deal.

That’s why, unlike others who have abandoned our cause, I will never throw in the towel when it comes for fighting for fair treatment for Ireland. Today, many of our people feel betrayed. They’re losing jobs, hopes, sense of self. In yet another generation, Irish parents are losing their children to emigration. Today, for too many people, the flow of life has stopped. They have no job, no money to pay for the mortgage or bills. Or, if they do have a job, but thanks to the Government’s rescue remedy – penal taxes – they still have little money to pay for the mortgage or bills.

And no Minister Lenihan, they did not all party.

I met a man this week. He and his wife are both graduates. They were hard workers, good earners. Both now without jobs. Last year they made a donation to St Vincent de Paul, as they did every year.

The day I met him, he was waiting for his local Vincent de Paul Conference to come over on a visitation. They come at night. Under cover of darkness to keep people’s dignity. Maybe Fianna Fail’s coming period in the dark might teach them such lessons of dignity and compassion.

That man’s story is replicated in every corner of Ireland. And it’s up to us, through our plan, through our example, through our new government, to rescue people from that savage indignity.

No wonder people are angry. But that anger, proper and real as it is, won’t get Ireland working. That’s why, in this election, we’re giving people the chance to turn their anger into action.

We’re saying, please come and work with us, come and vote for us because we have a plan to Get Ireland Working.

It’s been worked on for over three years. It’s a sensible plan, a realistic plan, to get people working, to get systems working, to get government working.

Right now, public Ireland, is not working. In personal and private Ireland, if they’re lucky enough to still have a job, people are working harder than ever. Putting in the grind. Coming up with plans.

Have our entrepreneurs run out of ideas? No. They’re full of them. More brilliant than ever. Your young people are more eager than ever to live and work in their own country.

The trouble is, while our Ministers are double jobbing, even treble jobbing, the Government just isn’t working. The systems that people depend on are not working. Or if they are, they’re just not working for the people.

With our plan to get Ireland Working we’ll change that.

Our five-point plan is like a five-pointed star. The one on our logo.

It gives clarity, light and direction to what will be a difficult journey to a better future ahead.

Point One – Protecting and creating jobs
Because jobs and opportunity are the best chance of keeping our best asset – our young people – at home.

We plan to create 20,000 new jobs a year over the next four years. How? By cutting employers’ PRSI, by creating a welfare system that encourages work and by investing an extra €7 billion from State pension funds and from the strategic sale of state assets into developing the key infrastructures that will make our economy competitive for the future.

In doing so, we can, by 2016, make Ireland the best small country in the world in which to do business.

Point Two – Introducing better, fairer budgets to keep taxes low
We will fix Ireland’s budget deficit by prioritising cutting waste, over raising taxes. Because high taxes kill jobs, we will keep taxes – particularly income taxes – down.

No country has ever taxed its way to economic recovery.

Point Three – we will create a completely new health system
Thanks to Micheal Martin’s creation of the HSE, €17 billion a year is currently spent on a health system that doesn’t work. That’s going to stop.
Our FairCare plan – modelled on the reformed Dutch health service – will cut waiting lists and end apartheid in our health service. With universal insurance, we’ll offer equal access to all. There’ll be more and better community care, meaning fewer hospital stays. Fewer hospital patients mean lower hospital costs for the taxpayer.

Point Four – smaller, better government with the people’s money spent wisely on vital public services
By streamlining systems, cutting red tape and abolishing quangos, we will reduce public-service costs by €5 billion. In making the system more efficient, we will protect the essential services provided by our teachers, nurses, doctors, Gardai and local government workers.

Point Five – a political system that achieves more and costs less, with the Government leading by example
We will cut the number of politicians by over a third. We will impose a ceiling on higher public service salaries.

We will introduce car pooling for ministers.

We will ensure proper accountability for decisions. A single-chamber parliamentary system, with powerful Dail committees, will hold Ministers to greater account
With our plan, when cuts are needed, they start at the top. When accountability is needed? It starts at the top. When sacrifice is needed? It starts at the top. Not with the blind, or the carers, or the poor. That’s example.

Conclusion
In just two days’ time, the current Dail will be dissolved. Tuesday is La Fheile Bride. The Celtic year turns, bringing new hope, new possibility, new life.

And as it does, Fine Gael want to bring that same new hope, new possibility, new life to Government. To our people. And to our country.
Because if people give us the most precious possessions that they have – their trust, their vote – then we will respond in kind.

With our plan we will replace old government cynicism with new government compassion.

We will replace old government indifference with new government insight.

We will replace the old dysfunction and disorder at the heart of government, with a government that holds the hearts and the needs of the people within its own.

That’s government they can trust.

That’s government they can believe in.

That’s government by Fine Gael.

The party with a Plan.

Each Fine Gael candidate will carry a clear message from this historic building to every person in Ireland:

• This country is not banjaxed. We have been faced with huge challenges before and we have overcome them.
• Fine Gael has the Plan to Get Ireland Working.
• We have the team – a strong team- to implement that plan.
• We are asking the Irish people for their mandate.
• If we get that honour, we will deliver and Get Ireland Working again.

Sinn Fein.

Look who SF takes votes from.

We believe that there is a clear duty on all members of Dáil Éireann to facilitate the passage of these measures in the uniquely serious circumstances in which we find ourselves. The political and financial stability of the State requires no less.

So again ministers who couldn’t have cared less about the Dail in the day-to-day running of the country suddenly want all its members aboard for a budget which they have no hand in creating.  Perhaps if you like parliamentary government, it should be seen as a good news that the days of the country being run through social partnership meetings and quangos have been put to one side.   But is it really the function of the parliamentary opposition to wait every 2 decades until the country is in a real shambles and then be called upon to vote with Fianna Fail for the sake of the country?   If, as periodically comes up for discussion, you take the view that there’s a dearth of talent in Irish politics, it doesn’t help when that’s the basic job description.

MANY IN Britain, who came through the harrowing years of war, the London blitz, the struggle to defend against invasion and the eventual defeat of Germany, recall the period as one of great personal fulfilment and satisfaction. British political parties set aside their differences and formed a national government of unity for the duration of the war. The prime minister’s inspired leadership rallied people to the cause; the parliamentary routine of peacetime was abandoned. A united people responded to the challenge and, under conditions of great hardship, contributed to the war effort and ultimately took satisfaction in the successful outcome.

If this is meant as an analogy to Ireland’s current situation, it’s a very incomplete one.

Here’s the thing: Britain’s National Government was formed in 1931, in the midst of the Great Depression, not with the onset of the World War II.  Here’s the relevant Wikipedia entry and the key thing that comes out is that while economic crisis did produce a durable national government, it didn’t produce consensus.  Instead, 2 of the then big parties (Labour and Liberal) had splits, while over time the government became a Tory Plus model, albeit with hybrid policies, for example austerity also with protectionism and devaluation.

So in the Irish case, if FF saw salvation (i.e. a chance at staying in power) coming in the shape of Labour and FG endorsement, which parties would be most likely to split and whose policies would emerge from the sausage grinder at the end?

And incidentally, when a true national unity government was formed in 1940, the one that Walsh has in mind, it involved the resignation of the Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain.   It’s hard to see Irish politics producing an admission of failure.