In August 2007, then Minister for Finance Brian Cowen gave an address to the Humbert Summer School.  It’s worth reading it all (scroll down to comments) to see the hubris that characterised this vintage of Fianna Fail – at a time when the banking system was already fatally compromised.

Note this part:

They [the public] did so in spite of the unprecedented pressure which he [Bertie] had come through in the first weeks of the campaign. The public showed that they have an innate sense of fair play and perspective which is willing to hear all of the information before reaching a conclusion. It remains a fact that confidential material was selectively leaked by a person or persons unknown with the sole intent of causing Bertie Ahern significant electoral damage. Only material which might cause damage was leaked, while other material was withheld.

No person should have to go through what Bertie Ahern endured in those weeks and we can learn a lot from the public’s balanced and reflective response. After ten years, the public were not going to be rushed into making a judgement on the Taoiseach. They know him pretty well by now and they understand that he is not motivated by personal gain. They have seen the progress made under his leadership. He has never been a specialist in the soundbite approach to politics, but he has more than made up for this in the substance of his achievements.

Thus Cowen presents not just a judgement on the Mahon leaks around this time — with sources that only the Irish Times could reveal — but also a claim that he and the electorate at large had come to the conclusion that there were no flawed pedigree issues with Bertie. Indeed, Cowen’s reputation was enhanced at the time by the perception that he had taken the FF election campaign by the scruff of the neck from a Mahon-distracted Bertie and led the party to a historic victory. Which part of that legacy will Micheál Martin be disowning?

Has the Irish Presidential election been decided by a lie and the media’s unquestioning belief of it? Why did the Sunday Independent wait until after the election – when the media darling was safely ensconced in the Aras – before revealing what they knew?

What the Sunday Independent now calls SF’s “dirty tricks campaign” may yet end up backfiring on the party in the courts. Under “The Prevention of Electoral Abuses Act, 1923″:

Every person who, before or during any election and for the purpose of affecting the return of any candidate at that election, makes or publishes any false statement of fact in relation to the personal character or conduct of such candidate, and the directors of any body or association corporate which before or during any election and for the purpose aforesaid makes or publishes any such false statement as aforesaid, shall be guilty of an illegal practice.”

That hope, and the fact that they remain in a strong (if not insurmountable) position in Dublin gives the lie to a week of spats between the two major parties. For Fine Gael, especially for the likes of Noonan and Varadker in particular, the numbers bear out that for FG to get close to a majority with 42% of the vote, Labour’s position in Dublin has to be eroded. 46 seats are available in Dublin, if FG were to come second or leave little or no gap between themselves and Labour, it could mean the difference between 72-75 seats and 80-83 seats.

When this is added to a gap between the parties on fiscal and social issues, it puts the tit-for-tat of the last week into stark relief. They are at odds on the IMF, fiscal management, growth projections, the health service and other issues. It won’t stop a deal being done, but if FG can get away without Labour, they will do all they can to do it.

This weekend marks the point, with two weeks left, when most voters begin to pay attention in standard elections, while we can argue the public are switched on already (for the past two years almost), there is still a feeling that the final two weeks are the formative period – when decisions on preferences are made and stuck to. It will be interesting to see how the parties try to communicate with voters in this time – whether debates, policies or slip-ups will swing people in behind anyone other than FG.

It is certainly all to play for, but we can expect to see plenty more spat between Fine Gael and Labour as the focus for the bigger party zones in on governing alone. Dublin is the key to FG’s last two weeks and they are sure to know it. Kenny will be taking part in the 5-way leader’s debate on The Frontline on Monday but if last week’s debate were the place to frame the debate, Mondays will be the place to get a single, memorable sound-bite.

Though Martin is loath to utter them (pull the other one), the soundbite will be the best way to ensure that something is achieved from a 5 person all-in with Pat Kenny (apologies for the unfortunate mental images). The challenge is there too for Labour, they have lost a lot of ground from their peak. Constant attacks from FF and FG have hurt them, added to by the failure (see Jan O Sullivan on the banks Weds on Today with PK) of front benchers to get the fiscal policy across under cross-examination. If this is repeating on the doors, Dublin is a battleground for them.

Edit @ 8.30: Just to add from Noel Whelan’s column today that Michael Marsh’s poll of polls (excluding tonights result) now has FG and Labour on parity in Dublin. Fine Gael are on 30.3% while Labour are on 29.9%.

In the 2009 local elections, the breakdown was as follows (FG first, Lab second);
Dublin City: 18% / 29%
Fingal: 20% / 25%
SoDub Co: 27% / 25%
DL/R’down: 34% / 22%

The difference between 2009 figures and the overall level of support for parties in Dublin is difficult to assess at a remove, one would need to spend a lot of time with the breakdown of boundaries for the election. This is due to the mixture of 3/4 seaters in many council areas. However a top-level analysis suggests that Labour have grown their overall support in Dublin’s suburbs, or have powered ahead in the Dublin City area. I think it unlikely to assume Labour on 40% in the Dublin City area and rather more likely that they have added on a few percentage points in the outer Dublin areas encompassed by Fingal, South Dublin Co. and Dun Laoghaire. Though only a few.

For Fine Gael the figures are much more promising, aside from Dun Laoghaire and their strong position in South Dublin, they didn’t break 30% in Dublin in 2009. Therefore the implication of the current 30% figure for Dublin suggests they have solidified their presence in South Dublin but lifted support in the other three council areas. They need it.

The current figures are a statistical dead heat. They are not sufficient for Fine Gael to swing into overall majority territory. The major problem they face is the Dublin is a mixture of 3-4-5 seaters, rather than a smaller number of 5 seaters. They will have to work extremely hard to take 2 seats in 3 or 4 seaters. They have shown capable of taking 3 seats in Dublin South, but the dog-fight in Dun Laoghaire should see them suffer unless there is a ‘wave election’ for Fine Gael (not something I am ruling out).

My feeling is that Fine Gael have made up a lot of ground in Dublin, but may need a much larger overall lead on Labour to get results – smaller seat numbers per constituency are disproportional. To convert a percentage into seats requires a lot of organisation and luck.

I guess running on your record was out of the question?

In its manifesto to be published today, Fianna Fáil will suggest ministers should not be hampered by having to do constituency work. TDs who are chosen by the taoiseach to be members of the cabinet will be replaced by a substitute in the Dáil who would have to be named on a list published before the election.

Ministers would continue to attend the Dáil, answer questions and participate in debates, but they would not have votes in Dáil divisions. “This system would allow them to devote significantly more time to their ministerial duties,” according to the manifesto. Ministers would continue to require Dáil approval for their appointment.
…
Another radical change is that the Taoiseach would be allowed to nominate people who are not members of the Oireachtas to be ministers. A confirmation process would be put in place which would include “a presentation of priorities” before a committee.
…
Fianna Fáil will propose a revamped electoral system which would see a mix of single-seat constituencies elected through single transferable votes along with a top-up national list.

It reads like the manifesto of a party that doesn’t expect to be negotiating a PFG on Feb 26th. Legislation gets independent fiscal analysis and the working week goes to your average Mon-Fri 9-5. Would love to know what the fiscal analysis would have made of Charlie McCreevey’s budgets for years. Any Cowen’s for that matter.

As pointed out by @faduda this is the first election since 1926 with no Blaney contesting in Donegal.

The meaty part of the exchange is below the fold, but in essence Lenihan claimed that Labour party proposals on the mixture of the tax increases and spending cuts had been presented by the unions in social partnership discussions over the last two years, and since the unions and Labour are “symbiotically linked”, Labour was thus effectively in social partnership.  Lenihan added the extra dig of mentioning that he could see “Kim Il Sung type pictures” of Eamon Gilmore on Liberty Hall.  Which is a bit of laugh if you consider that had the crash not happened when it did, Liberty Hall would by now be renamed Ahern Hall.

In a separate part of the discussion, Lenihan makes clear his bitterness at the Greens at their November announcement putting a lifespan on the government without actually withdrawing from it.

Deputy Brian Lenihan: …. That said, as a result of Government decisions and budgets adopted in recent years, marginal tax rates have slipped up beyond the 50% level. I have always believed that marginal tax rates should not exceed 50%. I have fought with might and main against it, but did so against a torrent of opposition, especially from the Labour Party and, of course, even more so from Sinn Féin which seems to believe there is a limitless pot of taxation and that taxation can be introduced and extended to 55%, 60%, 65% and 70%.

Senator Alex White:   Nonsense.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   This was raised with me in social partnership.

Senator Alex White:  Read the manifesto next week and see it.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:  This issue was raised by me with social partners in social partnership negotiations—–

Senator Alex White:   The Minister is making it up now.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   —–who objected to pay cuts and who turned around and asked why I would not bring in a 65% income tax rate.

Senator Alex White:   Was the Labour Party in social partnership? I do not remember that.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:  These persons are all symbiotically linked.

Senator Alex White:  That must be new. That is new to me, that nobody is invited to social partnership.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   I have the honour of representing a north-side Dublin constituency and when I pass Liberty Hall I see Kim Il-sung-type pictures of Deputy Gilmore on the building.

Senator Alex White:   It was former Taoiseach, Deputy Bertie Ahern, who invited them all in.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:  Please stop pretending to me that you are not symbiotically linked with all these people.

Senator Alex White:  Do not offend Senator Harris now.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   I look forward seeing the Labour Party’s manifesto.

Senator Alex White:   The Minister will see it quickly. I wonder has Fianna Fáil one at all and who will write it.

An Cathaoirleach:   Has Senator Alex White a point of order?

Deputy Brian Lenihan:  I have the honour of having written the manifesto for the next four years for this country—–

Senator Alex White:   Agreed.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:  —–and Senator Alex White will depart from it at his peril. That is all I can tell him.

Senator Alex White:   That is classic hubris. That is classic Fianna Fáil narrative.

Deputy Brian Lenihan: There is no question of hubris. There are modifications that can be introduced, but the broad direction of that manifesto in the national recovery plan is that two thirds of the adjustment must take place on the expenditure and one third on the taxation side. Although Fine Gael is maintaining that it can make an even bigger adjustment on the expenditure side, it will find it will be difficult to do that in office. On the other hand, the Labour Party is saying that half of the adjustment must take place on the taxation side and Sinn Féin is maintaining that two thirds of it can be done on the taxation side, which is an impossibility. It is a politically attractive impossibility—–

Senator Alex White: The Minister has increased taxes considerably.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:  —–because it allows them engage in this endless politics of begrudgery—–

Senator Alex White:  We have never had such tax increases as we have had from the Minister.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   —–that there is someone else who has to pay.

An Cathaoirleach:  The Minister is replying to the points raised. No interruption.

Senator Alex White: The Minister put the taxes up madly.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   There is always someone else who must pay.

Senator Alex White:  Some €1.5 billion of tax increases.

Deputy Brian Lenihan: It allows Senator Alex White to go to the doorstep and state to the occupant that he or she is a poor man or woman who is being mercilessly treated by the last Government, that his party accepts all that it did and will not change the measures even though the party opposed them, but there is someone else who can pay in the future. There is not—–

Senator Alex White:   Read the document. Read the manifesto.

Deputy Brian Lenihan:   —–and that will not work as an economic policy for this country.

Senator Alex White:  Will Fianna Fáil have a manifesto?

A few quick impressions from the Green news conference.  First, it sounded like they were trying to play nice with Fine Gael, but that might just be the circumstances.  Second, Brian Lenihan now has what looks like a big conflict of interest.  He made it clear in his leadership launch this morning that he wants a long election campaign.  But its timing now depends on the passing of the finance bill, whose details he controls — and he is back in “There is no alternative” mode (a la the guarantee, IMF etc) saying that it has to be done his way.  Hopefully the apolitical permanent staff at the department will be providing dispassionate advice on this.  Finally, there is at least one risk from the still unresolved nature of the next week in politics: that Brian Cowen does a final kick of the hind legs at anyone near him and calls an election immediately.

1.  Deputy Enda Kenny   asked the Taoiseach   the nature of the agreement between the Government and Deputy Jackie Healy-Rae; and if he will make a statement on the matter.

2.  Deputy Enda Kenny asked the Taoiseach  the nature of the agreement between the Government and Deputy Michael Lowry; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [30248/10]

3.  Deputy Enda Kenny  asked the Taoiseach   the arrangements in place in his office for providing special assistance to certain independent members of Dáil Éireann; and if he will make a statement on the matter.

4.  Deputy Eamon Gilmore    asked the Taoiseach    the arrangements in place within his Department for providing special assistance to certain Independent members of the Dáil; if he will list those members who benefit from this arrangement; and if he will make a statement on the matter.

5.  Deputy Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin   asked the Taoiseach    the nature of arrangements in place for his office to provide special assistance to those non-party Deputies who support the Government; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [41383/10]

The Taoiseach:  I propose to take Questions Nos. 1 to 5, inclusive, together.

These are political agreements that my predecessor entered into as leader of the Fianna Fáil Party with individual Independent Deputies. On becoming leader of Fianna Fáil, I confirmed to the Deputies concerned that I would continue to implement those agreements.

The House is aware such arrangements have existed for more than 13 years. The agreements are confidential but they are, as always, based on the programme for Government, which incorporates the national development plan, approved Government programmes and annual Estimates for capital and current expenditure.

…If Independent Deputies liaise with my office, they deal with an official there. However, that is not the aforementioned official’s only duty, as he has other duties. I am sure Deputy Kenny has contacted my Department and office himself from time to time and has been dealt with in the normal way. This is the way it happens and there is no big deal about it. …

Deputy Enda Kenny:  Deputy Healy-Rae — good luck to him — on many occasions has shown a part of the headed paper on which his deal has been drafted and signed. Members spoke earlier during Leaders’ Questions about encrypted files. These deals with the Independent Members appear to be in encrypted in such a way that no one can find out anything about them. Has the Taoiseach appointed a public servant, paid for by the taxpayer, to liaise regularly with Independent Deputies who are keeping the Government in power? Does the Taoiseach understand that question?

… Deputy Enda Kenny:  The Taoiseach stated the agreement is between the Government and Deputies Healy-Rae and Lowry. Does that mean the document the good Deputy from Kerry South has been showing in part is actually a Government document?

The Taoiseach:   No.

Deputy Enda Kenny: It does not. Therefore, does it mean it is subject to the Freedom of Information Act, if the Government——

The Taoiseach:   No.

Deputy Enda Kenny: It does not. Therefore, it is secret.

The Taoiseach: It is confidential.

As earlier posts have noted, he has never had a good sense of separation between the two roles and as Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin pointed out, the critical sentence was delivered as Gaeilge — “a united organisation is the most important thing”. So much for the Country First tone of a week ago.  Also to note at this stage, there is apparently a second bill that the government intends to pass before the election, there was a reference to the “NAMA amendment bill” which is the first I’d heard*.  Finally (for now), the FF leadership battle will pit several of the 7 FF Cabinet members against each other — a Cabinet that is already perilously close to the constitutional limit 7 and challenged in its constitutional requirement to operate as a collective.

Historical footnote: Richard Mulcahy as leader of FG served as Minister for Education in the interparty governments of the late 1940s and 1950s.

A Green Party quote to keep in mind –

A Green Party spokesman said last night that a general election was now only weeks away and the party’s TDs and Senators would consider the Labour motion on Tuesday.  But Green Party sources described the Labour motion as a “stunt” and said if Eamon Gilmore was serious about an immediate election, he would have put down a motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach rather than the Government.

FG have now supplied the former.

*The NAMA amendment bill is in the announced legislative program with a possible typo in its description.