In August 2007, then Minister for Finance Brian Cowen gave an address to the Humbert Summer School.  It’s worth reading it all (scroll down to comments) to see the hubris that characterised this vintage of Fianna Fail – at a time when the banking system was already fatally compromised.

Note this part:

They [the public] did so in spite of the unprecedented pressure which he [Bertie] had come through in the first weeks of the campaign. The public showed that they have an innate sense of fair play and perspective which is willing to hear all of the information before reaching a conclusion. It remains a fact that confidential material was selectively leaked by a person or persons unknown with the sole intent of causing Bertie Ahern significant electoral damage. Only material which might cause damage was leaked, while other material was withheld.

No person should have to go through what Bertie Ahern endured in those weeks and we can learn a lot from the public’s balanced and reflective response. After ten years, the public were not going to be rushed into making a judgement on the Taoiseach. They know him pretty well by now and they understand that he is not motivated by personal gain. They have seen the progress made under his leadership. He has never been a specialist in the soundbite approach to politics, but he has more than made up for this in the substance of his achievements.

Thus Cowen presents not just a judgement on the Mahon leaks around this time — with sources that only the Irish Times could reveal — but also a claim that he and the electorate at large had come to the conclusion that there were no flawed pedigree issues with Bertie. Indeed, Cowen’s reputation was enhanced at the time by the perception that he had taken the FF election campaign by the scruff of the neck from a Mahon-distracted Bertie and led the party to a historic victory. Which part of that legacy will Micheál Martin be disowning?

Has the Irish Presidential election been decided by a lie and the media’s unquestioning belief of it? Why did the Sunday Independent wait until after the election – when the media darling was safely ensconced in the Aras – before revealing what they knew?

What the Sunday Independent now calls SF’s “dirty tricks campaign” may yet end up backfiring on the party in the courts. Under “The Prevention of Electoral Abuses Act, 1923″:

Every person who, before or during any election and for the purpose of affecting the return of any candidate at that election, makes or publishes any false statement of fact in relation to the personal character or conduct of such candidate, and the directors of any body or association corporate which before or during any election and for the purpose aforesaid makes or publishes any such false statement as aforesaid, shall be guilty of an illegal practice.”

SINN Fein Presidential candidate Martin McGuinness is the main suspect in the brutal murder of two policemen, the Herald can reveal.

Sergeant Peter Gilgunn (26) and Constable David Montgomery (20), were gunned down in an IRA ambush as they travelled in an RUC patrol car in Derry.

They were the first police officers to lose their lives in a terrorist incident in the city for 50 years.

The ambush 40 years ago came just three days before Bloody Sunday sent shockwaves right across the Province.
….

The claims further calls SF’s credibility into question hours before the polls open in the Presidential Election. The revelation comes after McGuiness altered his account of Sean Gallagher’s alleged contacts with businessman and former convicted fuel-smuggler and former tax-evader Hugh Morgan.

Sinn Fein’s allegations linking Gallagher to a cheque for €5,000 for FF have been undermined following the revelations that the accuser has convictions for cross-border fuel-smuggling and tax-evasion and leased his General Election HQ to Gerry Adams. On Tonight with Vincent Brown it was reported that SF has now revealed his identity as Hugh Morgan. In February 2011, the Irish Mail on Sunday reported that Morgan plead guilty to fuel smuggling and tax-evasion in 1998, receiving an 18-month suspended sentence, and being required to pay €500,000 in excise duties and €25,000 in Prosecution costs.

SINN Féin president Gerry Adams is renting his election campaign HQ from the family firm of a convicted crossborder fuel smuggler, the Irish Mail on Sunday can reveal.
Festooned with posters of the Dáil hopeful, and flying the tricolour from the second storey, the office – above Gormley’s Pub in Park Street, Dundalk – is in a building belonging to Morgan Fuels Ireland Limited, owned by Hugh Morgan.

Newry businessman Morgan pleaded guilty to fuel smuggling and tax evasion at Belfast Crown Court in June 1998. He received a suspended 18-month jail sentence. He paid £500,000 in excise duties and VAT and was ordered to pay £25,000 prosecution costs.

But when Mr Adams was asked about Mr Morgan’s criminal convictions, he laughed them off, saying: ‘You’re great, great craic.’ He then claimed he didn’t know who Sinn Féin was renting the office space from and said he didn’t know Mr Morgan personally.

He said the lease was ‘a totally bona fide legal contract between Sinn Féin and the owner of the building… sin é, that’s it’.

When asked if Mr Morgan was any relation to departing Louth TD Arthur Morgan, Mr Adams said: ‘I wouldn’t say so,’ and joked: ‘But there’s Morgan’s rum now. It’s spice rum – especially, it’s very nice with Coca-Cola and a twist of lemon.’ Speaking during a canvass in mid-Louth, he then turned to his three aides and asked them: ‘Is Morgan’s Fuel any connection to wee Arthur?’

The revelations threaten to backfire on the McGuinness campaign just as false allegations against Mary Harney in relation to the Flood Tribunal did on Magill Magazine in 2002.

“Putting the country first may well mean we would be better in opposition, by far….People feel it is going to be hard to drive the government and that, therefore, the people we represent might be better protected by leading the opposition.

“I think there is a strong view along those lines.”

Broughan is the first high-profile TD to publicly oppose a Coalition, though Labour Youth President Colm Lawless Councillor Cian O’Callaghan, Blanchardstown Councillor Patrick Nulty and the UNITE union have also come out against:

“”I’ve been talking to Labour party members across the country, grassroots members, councillors, and I’m also aware that a number of TDs in the party have some strong reservations about the potential for a Fine Gael-led government,” the Howth/Malahide councillor said.

“You can be absolutely certain that you’re going to see a very strong, vigorous and healthy debate on Sunday and we’ll wait to see what the outcome is.” (Cian O’Callaghan)

“I fear that Labour’s influence will be minuscule and that we are about to allow Fine Gael a free reign on introducing harsh austerity measures which will hit ordinary people hardest..I fear that Labour’s influence will be minuscule and that we are about to allow Fine Gael a free reign on introducing harsh austerity measures which will hit ordinary people hardest,” said the Trinity College Dublin student.

“Fine Gael do not rely on Labour to remain in office and this is a serious concern…In the case of not holding a balance of power it is wise for us to remain in opposition.”

Mr O’Callaghan said four TDs had personally expressed their opposition to him about a prospective coalition.

“Unite has campaigned during this general election for a Labour-led left government…We were promoting that our members would vote for the Labour Party; we wanted Eamon Gilmore as taoiseach.” (Jimmy Kelly, UNITE Regional Secretary)

“If a programme for government is put to Labour members, I believe we should reject it and instead put the country first and push for . . . transformation in our political system” (Councillor Patrick Nulty)

“Meanwhile, Labour Party MEP Proinsias De Rossa has said his party should be prepared to go into Opposition.

In a statement, Mr De Rossa said that Labour should defend the interests of its core constituency – low and middle-income earners – by having key elements of its social democratic policies implemented.

He said that if Fine Gael did not accept these requirements, Labour should not enter a Coalition.” (RTE)

Meanwhile, FG’s Immigration and Integration Spokesperson Lucinda Creighton has called for the party to sound out Independent TDs as her supporters were rejecting Labour, “higher taxes” and “going soft on cuts”:

“People voting for me and voting for my colleagues were coming from Fianna Fáil and PD backgrounds. They were voting against Labour and against higher taxes and going soft on cuts. We will be punished if we were to say we would not try to see if there were other viable alternatives”

Creighton’s stance comes amid tensions over the next occupant of the Department of Finance and contrasts with FG Grandees who have largely dismissed a deal with “flakey” Independents. This is in spite of a public offer from Dublin South poll-topper Shane Ross TD for an agreement with up to 8 Independent TDs. Among Independents who might be prepared to support a FG-minority government are Noel Grealish (publicly pledged for vote for Kenny as a “West of Ireland” Taoiseach, former FG TD Michael Lowry, Michael Healy-Rae, former FF TD Tom Fleming, Luke “Ming” Flanagan (who claims to agree with many FG policies), Stephen Donnelly (backed by David McWilliams in Wicklow), former FF TD Mattie McGrath and Shane Ross. Neither of these constitute part of the Leftist-bloc of ULA or SP Independents. An alliance with FG would produce 84 seats and allow FG to reward impressive performers who played a decisive role in shaping policy and building the foundations for the party’s spectacular gains which have made the party – for the first time in Irish political history – the largest in the State. A Coalition with Labour, in constrast, is likely to require the sacrifice of up to 6 Cabinet seats – possibly including the ‘Holy Grail’ of the Department of Finance. With double the seat numbers of Labour, the surrender of the most powerful position at the Cabinet (arguably more so in a Coalition than that of Taoiseach) would raise the spectre of a repeat of the unpopular 1982-7 FG-Labour Government where the senior party was abandoned en masse in the succeeding General Election as conservative and libertarian FG voters defected to the PDs, depriving the party of one-quarter of its vote and consigning it to 22 years (consecutive apart from an interlude in 1992-4) to the political-wilderness.

Any Coalition agreement will have to be ratified by Labour’s Special Delegate Conference and by FG TDs and Senators. Unions will have 10% of the votes while Labour Youth will havd 45 votes at the conference.

1.  The increasing strangeness of constituency boundaries.  The constituency map inevitably dilutes the role of the county despite the fact that county identification is still strong.  It’s one thing to split a county when it grows but there are also the odd creations when towns are shuffled between the constituencies with little clear logic other than getting numbers right, and especially when those adjustments cross county lines.  Cases in point: Kells moved from Meath West to East and parts of Meath East near Drogheda moved to Louth, Kerry North now with bits of Limerick.  This doesn’t seem like the right way to build up local government.

The flip side of this are the multi-county constituencies where the vote dynamics are still highly local — many references this evening to “the Laois candidate”, the “Carlow candidate” etc.  The alternative: rather than shoe-horning the voters into 3, 4, and 5 seaters, do we find a way to strenthen the county basis or else move to much larger constituencies with more room for regional or national profiles?

2.  It’s impressive the way that the pundits are able to keep track of so many local candidates but it’s not perfect.  The RTE panel seemed surprised by Sinn Fein’s individual successes outside Dublin, even though people following local politics knew that SF were building up at the local level for years, with payoff obscured by SF’s poor showing in 2007.  Which brings me to …

3.  The slow-acting poison of Fianna Fail’s string of bad local election results.  It’s been a case of attrition with each local election but the party seemed to have its modus vivendi with local government: as long as it was on the central government revenue drip-feed and as long as TDs had their own operatives on the councils to feed the political machine, it didn’t matter that much.  And anyway, they won the 2007 general, so what was the problem?  Well, now we know.  Political bases for the opposition were being nurtured, even if they took time to cash in.  One consequence of this: as the national pundit panels contemplated the likelihood of nearly 20 independents, they had trouble naming who they were, beyond those with a media profile like Shane Ross and Mick Wallace.  Yet these now less anonymous TDs could have a big role in determining what the government and opposition looks like over the coming years.

4.  We need to talk about social partnership.  Brian Lenihan is sitting on a report — the evaluation of the Department of Finance — that apparently (going by the bits he has leaked) makes a damning indictment of social partnership and its impact on the economics and political governance of the country.  Of course, it also likely makes a damning indictment of the department itself.  But if we couldn’t have an election at least informed by the arguments in that report, how about now when crucial decisions are being made about how to run the country, especially given the complex relationship between the unions and Labour, now likely to be in government.  So, over to you caretaker Minister Lenihan.

5.  Do FF really believe their comeback challenge is of the same order of magnitude as what FG faced in 2002?  That was one of the favourite talking points yesterday.  It seems like a generous interpretation of their predicament, and even on its face, it should note that FG’s comeback included the 2007 disappointment.   Although if there was ever an election to lose …. but that’s another story.

6.  Who are the young guns on which FF can build … and yes I hear several voices raised saying “Averil Power”.  Well we can allow for count night pressure but still, one has to note that the FF spokesperson on political reform didn’t  have much to say last night about political reform, and couldn’t seem to handle Vincent Brown’s banter challenging her for an admission that FF wrecked the country.  And it mightn’t be a bad idea if every young person now working up the FF ranks was asked what concrete concerns they had about Bertie Ahern’s conduct as party operatives and why, assuming they had concerns, they joined anyway — a question that that the now exiting Cowen generation never faced despite their Haughey-era vintage.

7.  With the count on a weekend, we don’t yet know the opinion of … “the markets”.  It might be worth letting them indicate what they think the next government is going to do before making any rash decisions.  Sell on the rumour, buy on the news, or something.

That hope, and the fact that they remain in a strong (if not insurmountable) position in Dublin gives the lie to a week of spats between the two major parties. For Fine Gael, especially for the likes of Noonan and Varadker in particular, the numbers bear out that for FG to get close to a majority with 42% of the vote, Labour’s position in Dublin has to be eroded. 46 seats are available in Dublin, if FG were to come second or leave little or no gap between themselves and Labour, it could mean the difference between 72-75 seats and 80-83 seats.

When this is added to a gap between the parties on fiscal and social issues, it puts the tit-for-tat of the last week into stark relief. They are at odds on the IMF, fiscal management, growth projections, the health service and other issues. It won’t stop a deal being done, but if FG can get away without Labour, they will do all they can to do it.

This weekend marks the point, with two weeks left, when most voters begin to pay attention in standard elections, while we can argue the public are switched on already (for the past two years almost), there is still a feeling that the final two weeks are the formative period – when decisions on preferences are made and stuck to. It will be interesting to see how the parties try to communicate with voters in this time – whether debates, policies or slip-ups will swing people in behind anyone other than FG.

It is certainly all to play for, but we can expect to see plenty more spat between Fine Gael and Labour as the focus for the bigger party zones in on governing alone. Dublin is the key to FG’s last two weeks and they are sure to know it. Kenny will be taking part in the 5-way leader’s debate on The Frontline on Monday but if last week’s debate were the place to frame the debate, Mondays will be the place to get a single, memorable sound-bite.

Though Martin is loath to utter them (pull the other one), the soundbite will be the best way to ensure that something is achieved from a 5 person all-in with Pat Kenny (apologies for the unfortunate mental images). The challenge is there too for Labour, they have lost a lot of ground from their peak. Constant attacks from FF and FG have hurt them, added to by the failure (see Jan O Sullivan on the banks Weds on Today with PK) of front benchers to get the fiscal policy across under cross-examination. If this is repeating on the doors, Dublin is a battleground for them.

Edit @ 8.30: Just to add from Noel Whelan’s column today that Michael Marsh’s poll of polls (excluding tonights result) now has FG and Labour on parity in Dublin. Fine Gael are on 30.3% while Labour are on 29.9%.

In the 2009 local elections, the breakdown was as follows (FG first, Lab second);
Dublin City: 18% / 29%
Fingal: 20% / 25%
SoDub Co: 27% / 25%
DL/R’down: 34% / 22%

The difference between 2009 figures and the overall level of support for parties in Dublin is difficult to assess at a remove, one would need to spend a lot of time with the breakdown of boundaries for the election. This is due to the mixture of 3/4 seaters in many council areas. However a top-level analysis suggests that Labour have grown their overall support in Dublin’s suburbs, or have powered ahead in the Dublin City area. I think it unlikely to assume Labour on 40% in the Dublin City area and rather more likely that they have added on a few percentage points in the outer Dublin areas encompassed by Fingal, South Dublin Co. and Dun Laoghaire. Though only a few.

For Fine Gael the figures are much more promising, aside from Dun Laoghaire and their strong position in South Dublin, they didn’t break 30% in Dublin in 2009. Therefore the implication of the current 30% figure for Dublin suggests they have solidified their presence in South Dublin but lifted support in the other three council areas. They need it.

The current figures are a statistical dead heat. They are not sufficient for Fine Gael to swing into overall majority territory. The major problem they face is the Dublin is a mixture of 3-4-5 seaters, rather than a smaller number of 5 seaters. They will have to work extremely hard to take 2 seats in 3 or 4 seaters. They have shown capable of taking 3 seats in Dublin South, but the dog-fight in Dun Laoghaire should see them suffer unless there is a ‘wave election’ for Fine Gael (not something I am ruling out).

My feeling is that Fine Gael have made up a lot of ground in Dublin, but may need a much larger overall lead on Labour to get results – smaller seat numbers per constituency are disproportional. To convert a percentage into seats requires a lot of organisation and luck.

I guess running on your record was out of the question?

In its manifesto to be published today, Fianna Fáil will suggest ministers should not be hampered by having to do constituency work. TDs who are chosen by the taoiseach to be members of the cabinet will be replaced by a substitute in the Dáil who would have to be named on a list published before the election.

Ministers would continue to attend the Dáil, answer questions and participate in debates, but they would not have votes in Dáil divisions. “This system would allow them to devote significantly more time to their ministerial duties,” according to the manifesto. Ministers would continue to require Dáil approval for their appointment.
…
Another radical change is that the Taoiseach would be allowed to nominate people who are not members of the Oireachtas to be ministers. A confirmation process would be put in place which would include “a presentation of priorities” before a committee.
…
Fianna Fáil will propose a revamped electoral system which would see a mix of single-seat constituencies elected through single transferable votes along with a top-up national list.

It reads like the manifesto of a party that doesn’t expect to be negotiating a PFG on Feb 26th. Legislation gets independent fiscal analysis and the working week goes to your average Mon-Fri 9-5. Would love to know what the fiscal analysis would have made of Charlie McCreevey’s budgets for years. Any Cowen’s for that matter.

The policy is worth reading, for it suggests eliminating 8,000 jobs (as part of FG’s overall 30,000 target?) from the HSE and dismantling the behemoth by 2018/2019. Specifics and detail, well that is for next week.

According to Reilly:

“In 2001, Micheál Martin, then Minister for Health, announced his intention to end waiting lists by 2004. Both he and the HSE have spectacularly failed to meet this target.

“We recently witnessed 569 patients on trolleys in A&E and over 19,000 patients waiting more than three months for treatment.

“The message is simple; ‘Micheál Martin’s HSE is not working’. Fine Gael’s FairCare will completely reform the health system and is divided into three key phases:

Phase 1 (2011-14): Fine Gael will reform the current system to bring down waiting lists and build a stronger primary care system.
Phase 2 (2014): Fine Gael will change the way hospitals area paid. Block grants will be replaced by a system based on the numbers of patients they treat – ‘money follows the patient’. This will increase productivity by between 5% and 10%.
Phase 3: (2016): Fine Gael will begin the introduction of UHI. However, we know this is a long term project and bedding down all of reforms will take place during the following five years.

Well worth taking this into your electoral consideration – the HSE has claim to a huge amount of exchquer funding, in an era of cuts it is already in the firing line. FG assert you can lose 8,000 jobs and move to their system without affecting frontline services. As James Reilly is deputy-leader of Fine Gael, it seems a fair bet that the party will not allow the department to move to any coalition partner after the election. The proposal for the separation of “the purchaser of healthcare (the State) from the providers of healthcare (the hospitals)” implies the space for growth of private, for-profit hospitals.

For Labour, a universal health insurance system is underpinned by a public hospital systems drawing on public funds. We should naturally wait for the Labour health policy for full detail but as they have been on this since 2001, we are justified in not anticipating huge change. The ideological ground here is far tougher than on the economy. This is definitely something voters should be thinking about deeply prior to election day as there are plenty of non-economic social issues that need to be addressed in the post-tiger budget deficit era.

If you are looking at points of difference, you can start with the article Sara Burke (HSE analyst and journalist) wrote in response to the release of Fair Care first time around. Via her blog.