Evening Herald’s Dublin-only poll: Labour 31, FG 29, Ind 16, FF 10, SF 11, Green 3. #ge11

With seat estimate from Adrian Kavanagh:

Dublin seat estimates based on Hearld Dublin poll figures: FF 1, FG 17, LB 17, GP 0, SF 6, IND/OTH 6 (including 4 ULA)

The poll lays out the challenge to FG – they need another 6 seats or so in Dublin to be looking at overall majority territory.

The poll, conducted with local ballot papers, suggests that solitary FF candidate Billy Kelleher will struggle to hold the final seat. Labour’s Kathleen Lynch tops the poll but falls short of sufficient support to bring in her running mate.

Fine Gael have a quota in the four seater and will likely have one seat between two candidates, while Sinn Fein are also polling strongly looking for the third seat.

For FF:

Fianna Fáil won two seats in this predominantly working class constituency with 35 per cent of the vote at the last election. Support for the party has plummeted to just 13 per cent in the poll and the party could end up without a seat.

They are facing the prospect of transfer friendly Mick Barry pipping them in the last rounds as Fianna Fail’s transfer-toxicity claims a scalp.

The figures bear out what Michael Marsh has argued, that the assumed natural plateaus in FF support have been little more than sign posts on the way down. There are no natural levels of support for FF now, they will get what they get.

More here.
Poll info: The survey was conducted last Thursday and Friday in 500 in-home interviews with voters given sample ballot papers. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 per cent. 70% filled out papers, 30% returned them empty.

That hope, and the fact that they remain in a strong (if not insurmountable) position in Dublin gives the lie to a week of spats between the two major parties. For Fine Gael, especially for the likes of Noonan and Varadker in particular, the numbers bear out that for FG to get close to a majority with 42% of the vote, Labour’s position in Dublin has to be eroded. 46 seats are available in Dublin, if FG were to come second or leave little or no gap between themselves and Labour, it could mean the difference between 72-75 seats and 80-83 seats.

When this is added to a gap between the parties on fiscal and social issues, it puts the tit-for-tat of the last week into stark relief. They are at odds on the IMF, fiscal management, growth projections, the health service and other issues. It won’t stop a deal being done, but if FG can get away without Labour, they will do all they can to do it.

This weekend marks the point, with two weeks left, when most voters begin to pay attention in standard elections, while we can argue the public are switched on already (for the past two years almost), there is still a feeling that the final two weeks are the formative period – when decisions on preferences are made and stuck to. It will be interesting to see how the parties try to communicate with voters in this time – whether debates, policies or slip-ups will swing people in behind anyone other than FG.

It is certainly all to play for, but we can expect to see plenty more spat between Fine Gael and Labour as the focus for the bigger party zones in on governing alone. Dublin is the key to FG’s last two weeks and they are sure to know it. Kenny will be taking part in the 5-way leader’s debate on The Frontline on Monday but if last week’s debate were the place to frame the debate, Mondays will be the place to get a single, memorable sound-bite.

Though Martin is loath to utter them (pull the other one), the soundbite will be the best way to ensure that something is achieved from a 5 person all-in with Pat Kenny (apologies for the unfortunate mental images). The challenge is there too for Labour, they have lost a lot of ground from their peak. Constant attacks from FF and FG have hurt them, added to by the failure (see Jan O Sullivan on the banks Weds on Today with PK) of front benchers to get the fiscal policy across under cross-examination. If this is repeating on the doors, Dublin is a battleground for them.

Edit @ 8.30: Just to add from Noel Whelan’s column today that Michael Marsh’s poll of polls (excluding tonights result) now has FG and Labour on parity in Dublin. Fine Gael are on 30.3% while Labour are on 29.9%.

In the 2009 local elections, the breakdown was as follows (FG first, Lab second);
Dublin City: 18% / 29%
Fingal: 20% / 25%
SoDub Co: 27% / 25%
DL/R’down: 34% / 22%

The difference between 2009 figures and the overall level of support for parties in Dublin is difficult to assess at a remove, one would need to spend a lot of time with the breakdown of boundaries for the election. This is due to the mixture of 3/4 seaters in many council areas. However a top-level analysis suggests that Labour have grown their overall support in Dublin’s suburbs, or have powered ahead in the Dublin City area. I think it unlikely to assume Labour on 40% in the Dublin City area and rather more likely that they have added on a few percentage points in the outer Dublin areas encompassed by Fingal, South Dublin Co. and Dun Laoghaire. Though only a few.

For Fine Gael the figures are much more promising, aside from Dun Laoghaire and their strong position in South Dublin, they didn’t break 30% in Dublin in 2009. Therefore the implication of the current 30% figure for Dublin suggests they have solidified their presence in South Dublin but lifted support in the other three council areas. They need it.

The current figures are a statistical dead heat. They are not sufficient for Fine Gael to swing into overall majority territory. The major problem they face is the Dublin is a mixture of 3-4-5 seaters, rather than a smaller number of 5 seaters. They will have to work extremely hard to take 2 seats in 3 or 4 seaters. They have shown capable of taking 3 seats in Dublin South, but the dog-fight in Dun Laoghaire should see them suffer unless there is a ‘wave election’ for Fine Gael (not something I am ruling out).

My feeling is that Fine Gael have made up a lot of ground in Dublin, but may need a much larger overall lead on Labour to get results – smaller seat numbers per constituency are disproportional. To convert a percentage into seats requires a lot of organisation and luck.

Change figures are from midweek RedC for Paddy Power.

FG 35 (-2), Lab 22 (+3), FF 17 (-1), SF 13
(+1), Green 2 (-1), Other 11 (n/c) The bands are static for all
major parties after 4 polls in the past 7 days.

This week’s Kerry’s Eye has a poll for the constituencies of Kerry South and Kerry North West Limerick. The headline is that Fianna Fail look like they may have no representative in the county of Kerry after the election.

Both are 3-seaters. In Kerry North, FF are running a single candidate in Tom McEllistrim and hopeful of retaining a seat in 3rd place. The Kerry South FF have been hit by defections in the form of Tom Fleming – now running as an independent – and the pressure that always resides in the Healy-Rae machine. As one flat-cap stands aside, Michael is ready to jump into the fold.

For Kerry North/West Limerick the numbers are:
J Deenihan (FG) 31%
M Ferris (SF) 14%
T McEllistrim (FF) 7%
A Spring (Lab) 19%
B O Brien (Ind) 5%
J Sheahan (FG) 2%
DK 22%

For Kerry South
J O Donoghue (FF) 10%
Michael Healy Rae (Ind) 9%
Tom Sheahan (FG) 10%
Tom Fleming (Ind) 15%
Michael Gleeson (SKIA) 11%
Brendan Griffin (FG) 10%
Marie Maloney (Lab) 10%
DK 25%

Sample: Phone poll of Jan 29 with electoral areas proportionally represented. Margin +/- 4% No word on sample size.
For both constituencies FF are in a pitched battle for a seat. With so much to fracture the FF vote in Kerry South, there is significant danger. However, the Bull has retained a strong team, a strong local presence and will run on a track record of securing pork for the constituency. There is little between the main candidates, with a large selection of don’t knows ultimately deciding the issue.

For Kerry North, Deenihan looks set to enhance his position as one of the country’s leading poll toppers. His mainly rural support base will transfer all over the place but strong showings from Ferris and from Spring put them in the best position to get the other 2 seats.

The large proportion of dont knows in both constituencies is consistent with the Irish Times poll today – a fifth of voters still haven’t made up their mind. The fate of FF will broadly hinge on how these voters fall.

Pearse Doherty (SF) 40%
Brian O’Domhnaill (FF) 19%
Barry O’Neill (FG) 15%
Frank McBrearty (Lab) 14%

As a result, Paddy Power have shortened the odds on Doherty taking the seat from 1/5 to 1/8.

More findings:

-Brian O’Domhnaill fares poorly from Sinn Féin transfers.

-Barry O’Neill, Fine Gael and Frank McBrearty Junior, Labour; both secure a similar share of first preference vote in the constituency at 15% and 14% respectively, but initial analysis of transfers puts McBrearty ahead.

- Asked for General Election voting-intentions, Sinn Féin take 31% of the first preference vote – 10 points ahead of their impressive performance just over 3 years ago.

-The Labour vote in Donegal SW has risen by 15 percentage-points to 18% in GE voting intentions relative to 2007.

- 46% in the constituency prefer Eamon Gilmore as Taoiseach, compared to 18% for Enda Kenny, 13% for Brian Cowen, with 13% favouring none of these and 10% undecided.

- Fianna Fáil score just 19% in General Election voting-intentions.

Asked for General Election voting-intentions, Sinn Féin take 31% of the first preference vote – 10 points ahead of their impressive performance just over 3 years ago. The Labour vote in Donegal SW has risen by 15 percentage-points to 18%. 46% in the constituency prefer Eamon Gilmore as Taoiseach, compared to 18% for Enda Kenny, 13% for Brian Cowen, with 13% favouring none of these and 10% undecided. Fianna Fáil score just 19% in General Election voting-intentions.

FG 31 (-2)
FF24,(nc)
LAB 23 (-4)
SF 10 (+2)
GR 3 (+1)
Oths 9 (+3)

Underlines volatility of Labour vote. Also public satisfaction with Brian Cowen is 19% to 64% dissatisfied and 17% undecided. 29% are more likekly to vote vote FF with Cowen replaced, including 21% of FG and Labour voters. Will FF be forced to turn to SF and Independents to retain power?

Have at the interpretation in comments.  To me it shows that Labour’s more confrontational approach in opposition works, typified by Eamon Gilmore’s “economic treason” remark (which seems to have stung).  Note that Gilmore’s personal rating also far exceeds the other leaders.  We’re a long way from a Tallaght Strategy world. 

There’s just one problem.  There’s no election scheduled any time soon.

Fine Gael 33 (-2)

Fianna Fáil 23 (-1)

Labour 24 (+7)

Green 6 (+1)

Sinn Fein 6 (-4)

Indepedents 8

More on leaders ratings later

Party Support:
FF 24% (-3)
FG 35% (+1)
Lab 17% (–)
Greens 5% (–)
SF 10% (+1)
Other/Ind 9% (+1)

Interestingly 2/3 of voters do not think Cowen can lead us out of recession – that is the kind of finding that occurs when the decision to leave things be is the one he takes most often. Cowen’s approval rate of 27% is an apallingly low figure – one that is unlikely to pick up before the next election and underlines that the backbench logic of anger toward Cowen is not without political and policy foundation.