Irish Election - Coverage of Irish Politics, News and Current Affairs

via Keith Martin on Twitter: Evening Herald’s Dublin-only poll: Labour 31, FG 29, Ind 16, FF 10, SF 11, Green 3. #ge11 With seat estimate from Adrian Kavanagh: Dublin seat estimates based on Hearld Dublin poll figures: FF 1, FG 17, LB 17, GP 0, SF 6, IND/OTH 6 (including 4 ULA) The poll lays [...]

For many, it had seemed plausible that Fianna Fail would climb Lazarus-like back to the low-20s in vote share. Thus far, the polls have mired the party on 15% under new leader Micheal Martin and if that is where they stay, a local poll for the Irish Times in Cork North Central suggests the party [...]

A week or so ago, as we were in the midst of a deluge of polls, I hazarded that Fine Gael may be on route to a majority or very close to it. While legitimate doubts were raised at the time, the trend for FG since has been upward and tonights margin-of-error beating 3% rise [...]

Via Neil Ward on Twitter SBP/Red C tomorrow: Change figures are from midweek RedC for Paddy Power. FG 35 (-2), Lab 22 (+3), FF 17 (-1), SF 13 (+1), Green 2 (-1), Other 11 (n/c) The bands are static for all major parties after 4 polls in the past 7 days.

I hope this irregular piece can become more regular over the campaign. If readers have local polling data, please email it to us irishelection@gmail.com or tweet us @irishelection.

The latest by-election poll from Red C (conducted for Paddy Power) in the Donegal South-West by-election campaign confirms SF on target to take the seat: Pearse Doherty (SF) 40% Brian O’Domhnaill (FF) 19% Barry O’Neill (FG) 15% Frank McBrearty (Lab) 14%

Thanks to politics.ie. FG 31 (-2) FF24,(nc) LAB 23 (-4) SF 10 (+2) GR 3 (+1) Oths 9 (+3) Underlines volatility of Labour vote. Also public satisfaction with Brian Cowen is 19% to 64% dissatisfied and 17% undecided. 29% are more likekly to vote vote FF with Cowen replaced, including 21% of FG and Labour [...]

Latest Irish Times/IPSOS-MRBI (the newly merged group) poll.  Poll taken Tue-Wed when the banking report drip feed was on but before it became main news.   Last comparable poll (January) in brackets: FF 17 (22), FG 28 (32). Lab 32 (24), SF 9 (8), Green 3 (3), Ind 11 (11). Have at the interpretation in comments.  [...]

In tomorrows Sunday Business Post Fine Gael 33 (-2) Fianna Fáil 23 (-1) Labour 24 (+7) Green 6 (+1) Sinn Fein 6 (-4) Indepedents 8 More on leaders ratings later

Tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post Poll is bad news for Fianna Fail, down 3% to 24%. Party Support: FF 24% (-3) FG 35% (+1) Lab 17% (–) Greens 5% (–) SF 10% (+1) Other/Ind 9% (+1)

Red C poll capturing post-budget reaction for Sunday Business Post with previous poll (22nd Nov) in parentheses: FF 27% (23%), FG 34%(36%), Lab 17%(17%), SF 8%(10%), Green 5% (5%), Ind. 9% (9%). These results are not easy to interpret.

One of few journalists to call CU for Dana in 1999 has called the third seat in the Northwest euro constituency for Libertas leader Declan Ganley: Ten years ago this week, I was the only reporter to ‘call’ it for Independent candidate Dana Rosemary Scallon in advance of the Connacht-Ulster European election. Fianna Fáil and [...]

The early numbers are out from tomorrow’s breakdown of the European race. Keith had some of the early East constituency numbers online a while ago and the rest of the details is clearing up now. Yesterday had Fianna Fail on 20%, Labour on 23% and Fine Gael on 36% – interesting to see how the [...]

Stephen Spillane has interesting details of the Evening Echo poll conducted by Landsdowne in Cork city and county. Fianna Fail – 9% Fine Gael – 23% Labour – 20% Green Party – 4% Sinn Fein – 6% Socialists – 0% Independent/Libertas – 16% No Party/Vote for Personality – 23% Don’t Know – 13%

Irish Times poll by TNS/MRBI is out tomorrow. Party Ratings: Fianna Fáil  21% (-1) Fine Gael  38% (+6) Labour Party  20% (-4) Sinn Féin  9% (nc) Green Party  3% (-1) Government Satisfaction  10% (-4) Leaders Satisfaction: Brian Cowen  18% (-6) Enda Kenny  33% (+3) Eamon Gilmore  51% (+7) John Gormley  25% (-4)

Results, courtesy of Neil: Fianna Fáil 23%  (-5) Fine Gael 33% (+2) Labour Party 19% (+2) Green Party 7% (n/c) Sinn Féin 8% (+1) Independents/others 10% That poll would have been taken on Monday and Tuesday. As always, you get the results first here on IrishElection.com! Update: RTÉ now has more on this.  When asked [...]