Early predictions from most of the mainstream media outlets have McDonald as the favourite. There is nothing is solid from the exit polls however – while they are perceived to be more trustworthy in Dublin than elsewhere – they are far from concrete. They say it’ll come down to who goes out first between the three and their transfers, but sure the Irishelection readers may well know better… give us your analysis…

Ten years ago this week, I was the only reporter to ‘call’ it for Independent candidate Dana Rosemary Scallon in advance of the Connacht-Ulster European election. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael did not see it coming. This week, I’m going to ‘call’ it again. When the votes are counted in Castlebar on Sunday, I expect Declan Ganley to be a new MEP for the North West region, alongside Jim Higgins and Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher. This is the only constituency that takes in parts of all four provinces. Longford and Westmeath make their debut in the North West for the first time. Clare was added in advance of the last election five years ago while Donegal, Cavan and Monahan, together with the five Connacht continues comprise what was known as the old Connacht-Ulster region.”

Dismissing TNS-MRBI polls implying support for Ganley on just 9%, Commins points to the difficulties polling the largest constituency in Europe, and the disconnect between the Euro-elites and the people:

It is a vast territory and one where opinion polls have not a hope in hell of forecasting the outcome. This is a strange election and the establishment candidates in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are on edge. The result of the Lisbon Treaty vote last year sent shock waves through the main parties, they completely misjudged the mood of many of their own supporters. There is a huge ‘disconnect’ with Europe among the electorate. Believe it or not, many people have little idea who is running for Europe. Some who will vote in the Council elections will not waste much time looking at the European ballot paper. Their votes are likely to go anywhere.”

Also counting in his favour is the abandonment of the southern half of the constituency to Ganley, and the media’s obsession with his candidacy:

“Who is the most talked about candidate in the North West constituency in this campaign? Declan Ganley. ‘How will Ganley do?‘ is the most asked question by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil people up and down the constituency. He is at the heart of every conversation in this constituency, a good place to be for any candidate. Together with Padraig MacLochlainn of Sinn Fein, he represents the views of the big majority of people who cast their votes against the Lisbon Treaty. In Mayo, 62% voted “No” and yet Fianna Fail and Fine Gael top brass refuse to accept the democratic expression of the people. Is it any wonder the people have lost all trust in the governing elites who refuse point-blank to accept our verdict?…… Declan Ganley is the only big name south of a middle line drawn through the North West constituency from west to east. One would have to assume that if any other candidate found themselves so well placed, and in Galway, the biggest populated county of all eleven counties, it would represent a huge advantage. On that basis, plus the fact that the vast bulk of the Dana team from the previous two European elections are ‘on side’ with the Libertas leader, I believe Ganley, whose mother is from Achill, will repeat the Dana sensation of ten years ago. Should Fianna Fáil hit a seriously bad day, then both Ganley and Harkin could make it across the line along with Jim Higgins”

Commins also points to a ground operation superior to Harkin’s – even (on Newstalk’s “The Right Hook) comparing it to the Blaney-machine of the 1980′s:

Marian Harkin from Sligo won a seat as an Independent back in 2004. Despite an early opinion poll showing her featuring well, it is hard to detect such support on the ground. Certainly, she does not have the ‘troops’ that the Ganley campaign has going door to door in towns around the counties and she has been depending to a large extent on radio appearances and some public meetings to maintain a prominent presence in the last three weeks. On the defeated Yes side in the Lisbon Treaty, Marian does not appear to have the same momentum which carried her through in 2004. She is also based in the crowded northern end of the constituency which make things more difficult for her.” .

As bookmakers slash odds on a Ganley victory (from 2/1 to 5/4 on Paddypower), is Europe set to force itself to the heart of Irish politics, as in the rest of Europe? We can but hope.

Eoin Ryan New Posters

My first viewing this morning had me thinking of Chad, as in Wot…no?

Sent to us from Mayo – the first bumper sticker and the first anti-candidate ephemera of Elections 2009.  Suppose if it was going to be any candidate it would be The Chairman.

The project has been sponsored by the European Policy Centre with the aim of assisting the monitoring of MEPs. It provides details on the voting, attendance, party allegiances of MEPs. The search functionality of the site allows users to query an MEP’s record based on their EU party / grouping, nationality, and particular national political party.

So on to the sport as they say!

In the `Motions for resolutions’ category, which deals with motions put forward for voting on by the parliament. The top three are Brian Crowley (101), Eoin Ryan (91), and Colm Burke (45). The bottom three are Jim Higgins (1), Mairead McGuinness (5), and Marian Harkin (5).

In the `Parliamentary questions’ category, which details the questions asked by MEPs to the European Commission or to the Council of the European Union. The top three are Proinsias de Rossa (1067!), Jim Higgins (324), and Kathy Sinnott (213). The bottom three are Colm Bourke (41), Sean O Neachtain (104), and Eoin Ryan (105).

Good to know who is working but lets get to the main event or the attendance figures. The top three are Brian Crowley (94.3%), Sean O Neachtain (93.29%), and Kathy Sinnott (92.98%). The bottom three in visiting the parliament are Eoin Ryan (83.22%), Mairead McGuinness (84.56%), and Proinsias de Rossa (85.32%).

I’m sure that next weekend’s papers will see a nice break down by the political correspondents looking in detail at the attendance and motions / questions categories.

But I’m not planning on participating in these and for the moment I’m going to plunder the best and worst and most interesting of the web, twitter, youtube and the like and Cian and I will bring snippets to you every few days. If you want to send me anything please email tips (@) mamanpoulet.com – all presents will be gratefully received.  There are three types of campaign to cover so we’re in campaign monitoring heaven!

And if you are wondering if I’m not a few days early in kicking off the campaign coverage – well if the posters are going up early so am I!

First a nod to something that happened yesterday afternoon, a ‘conversation’ between the Green Party’s Twitter Account and Peter Donegan. It’s was about Senator Deirdre de Burca and the way she might tweet at you .  It’s all one way traffic and no replies to those who ask question or look for info and well the Green Party tweeter defended Deirdre and compared her to Barack Obama’s twitter account.  Oh dear.  Stephen Spillane  rounds up the conversation for our consumption.  That’s the thing with social networks – it’s meant to be a conversation – not a megaphone!

We’re privileged to have more candidates blogging and twittering this year and the Sunny South East provides two of the finest - Cllr Joe Ryan (Lab) gives a run down of the candidate line up for Wexford Borough Council.  In Waterford I’ve been a regular reader of a blog of a independent councillor – a woman blogging politician – a very rare breed!  Cllr Mary Roche’s style of blogging is upfront and honest with snippets of colour from council meetings and reactions to local and national events. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on. The latest post covers a speed dating for politicians event run by a local youth group.

Onto the European Parliament candidates - You may not have seen my rather middling first video diary entry yesterday regarding my thoughts on Libertas’s Mother Superior.

Labour’s Susan O’Keefe running in the North West Constituency in between seeking cups of tea has been spending time with George Clooney.

Checking out the candidate blog list it seems Mairead McGuinness from Fine Gael seems to be blogging without a  comment facility. I know she’s not alone and more on this in later round ups. I can’t find a blog from any FF European Parliament Candidate – Eoin Ryan has not updated since February and it was only one entry.  No blog on the Micandidate.eu Profile he’s bought either.

Squid from Limerick Blogger has an excellent post profiling the online nature of the candidacies in the European Parliment South Constituency.

Finally today to the treasure trove that is Youtube and what could be classed as an improvement to the pieces to camera in 2007, this year we have video blogs and adverts – efforts to make campaigns seem like a John Hinde tourist postcard?

First up is Mick Galvin – Mick is a Fine Gael candidate for Bray Town Council.  Commissioned and paid for by Glynn ’09 Local Election Campaign ‘Our Town’ believes that ”If we can all believe and be proud of our town, the things that you want changed will disappear” .  Not sure who’s fault the problems in Bray are according to Mick or the video.  Or even who Mick is!

Directed by Tom Burke and produced by Shane Hogan (Areaman) the music was composed by John Fahy. All these credits eh? Irishelection will need to organise campaign oscars!

Speaking of Oscars! We can’t not mention the Election Movie from Donegal I was tipped off about last week.

Fianna Fáil Cllr. Francis Conaghan is retiring and Paul Canning is seeking his seat. We get 8 minutes of movie here with new schools, traffic lights, water dams and footpaths. But first we get the handover and thank you speech from the retiring candidate. I’m not sure if other candidates on FF ticket get a similar nod from Francis.

NB. I will be in Manorcunningham/Letterkenny next weekend so if any candidate from whatever party would like to meet up and maybe do a short video interview let me know! I’m not a movie maker though!

Susan O’Keefe is a journalist who broke the story on a World in Action programme on the Irish Beef Industry which led to the formation of a Tribunal of Inquiry.

O’Keefe ended up being one of the only people charged after the Tribunal for contempt for refusing to reveal her sources.  This despite the Tribunal finding that many of the allegations made in the programmes were substantiated.  The case against her collapsed and she has won several awards for her work including a Campaign for Freedom of Information award.

The North-West Constituency will also feature the candidacy of Lbertas Chairman, Declan Ganley.

Labour’s candidate in the 3 seater constituency in 2004, Hughie Baxter, came second last with 13,948 votes.  Given the current polictal climate its safe to say that the party would wish to improve on this.