1.  Deputy Enda Kenny   asked the Taoiseach   the nature of the agreement between the Government and Deputy Jackie Healy-Rae; and if he will make a statement on the matter.

2.  Deputy Enda Kenny asked the Taoiseach  the nature of the agreement between the Government and Deputy Michael Lowry; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [30248/10]

3.  Deputy Enda Kenny  asked the Taoiseach   the arrangements in place in his office for providing special assistance to certain independent members of Dáil Éireann; and if he will make a statement on the matter.

4.  Deputy Eamon Gilmore    asked the Taoiseach    the arrangements in place within his Department for providing special assistance to certain Independent members of the Dáil; if he will list those members who benefit from this arrangement; and if he will make a statement on the matter.

5.  Deputy Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin   asked the Taoiseach    the nature of arrangements in place for his office to provide special assistance to those non-party Deputies who support the Government; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [41383/10]

The Taoiseach:  I propose to take Questions Nos. 1 to 5, inclusive, together.

These are political agreements that my predecessor entered into as leader of the Fianna Fáil Party with individual Independent Deputies. On becoming leader of Fianna Fáil, I confirmed to the Deputies concerned that I would continue to implement those agreements.

The House is aware such arrangements have existed for more than 13 years. The agreements are confidential but they are, as always, based on the programme for Government, which incorporates the national development plan, approved Government programmes and annual Estimates for capital and current expenditure.

…If Independent Deputies liaise with my office, they deal with an official there. However, that is not the aforementioned official’s only duty, as he has other duties. I am sure Deputy Kenny has contacted my Department and office himself from time to time and has been dealt with in the normal way. This is the way it happens and there is no big deal about it. …

Deputy Enda Kenny:  Deputy Healy-Rae — good luck to him — on many occasions has shown a part of the headed paper on which his deal has been drafted and signed. Members spoke earlier during Leaders’ Questions about encrypted files. These deals with the Independent Members appear to be in encrypted in such a way that no one can find out anything about them. Has the Taoiseach appointed a public servant, paid for by the taxpayer, to liaise regularly with Independent Deputies who are keeping the Government in power? Does the Taoiseach understand that question?

… Deputy Enda Kenny:  The Taoiseach stated the agreement is between the Government and Deputies Healy-Rae and Lowry. Does that mean the document the good Deputy from Kerry South has been showing in part is actually a Government document?

The Taoiseach:   No.

Deputy Enda Kenny: It does not. Therefore, does it mean it is subject to the Freedom of Information Act, if the Government——

The Taoiseach:   No.

Deputy Enda Kenny: It does not. Therefore, it is secret.

The Taoiseach: It is confidential.

I am going to try and do a review of all the constiuencies. If people have Views on anyone please drop us a comment or a email. thedossingtimes at gmail.com will get me.

First Up for no reason other then it is the best constiuency;

North Tipperary

In the last election the top 5 were

*	Michael Lowry1 Snr				12,919		29.08%		1.16		1		Made Quota		1
§	Noel J Coonan				7,061		15.89%		0.64		6		Made Quota		2
*	Maire Hoctor				7,374		16.60%		0.66		6		Elected		3
*	Michael Smith1				7,871		17.72%		0.71		(6)		Not Elected
§	Kathleen O’Meara				4,561		10.27%		0.41		(5)		Eliminated

It is unlikely that Lowry will not get elected. His local vote is still strong and he is still liked in the constiuency. He may however see a small drop in support but not enough to not top the poll.

Coonan is also safe in his seat. A decent worker with a good geograpical base in Templemore. Also bhouyed up by FG general rise.

This beings us to the last seat. Which will be probably between Marie Hoctor and Labours Alan Kelly. Both canidates are in the West of the constiuency so will be after the same geographical vote. With the troubles with Nenagh Hosipeal and the general anti-FF vibe. This seat is likely to go to Labour. Unless Fianna Failure can get someone to come in around Michael Smiths old stomping ground and hoover up some votes. But I think Labour has this. However if FF can manage their vote well they might hold on to it.

Verdict: 1Ind 1 FG 1 Lab

Tipperary South

Last time out:

*	Tom Hayes				8,200		21.14%		0.85		5		Made Quota		1
	Mattie McGrath				7,608		19.62%		0.78		6		Made Quota		2
§	Dr Martin Mansergh				6,110		15.75%		0.63		8		Elected		3
*	Seamus Healy				5,707		14.72%		0.59		(8)		Not Elected
	Siobhan Ambrose				4,286		11.05%		0.44		(5)		Eliminated

Phil Prendergast

3,400

8.77%

0.35

(4)

Eliminated

This is an interesting seat. I think Martin Mansergh is very vunerable here. While a fairly big name I think he has suffered a bit in recent months. Seamus Healy who he piped to the post with Mattie McGrath’s transfers will probably run again. With the downturn of FF I doubt he will get enough to be still in the fight. The one challange to Seamus Healy would be Phil Prendergast. A Labour senator she might benefit from an increase Labour vote and her increased profile. Also I think the independents will suffer in this election. With national issues overcoming the concerns of local. So I think Labour might just take it but very very close.

Verdict: 1 FG 1 FF 1 Lab

Clare

Last time out:

§	Timmy Dooley				10,791		19.14%		0.96		4		Made Quota		1
*	Tony Killeen				8,321		14.76%		0.74		7		Made Quota		2
*	Pat Breen				7,036		12.48%		0.62		8		Made Quota		3
	Joe Carey				5,818		10.32%		0.52		9		Elected		4
*	James Breen				5,218		9.25%		0.46		(6)		Eliminated
§	Brendan Daly				5,712		10.13%		0.51		(6)		Eliminated
	Madeleine Taylor Quinn				3,592		6.37%		0.32		(5)		Eliminated

This is quiet an even battle with FG and FF and independents. However with FF vote falling I think Timmy Dooley is in trouble which is a big worry for FF. They would consider themselves the owner of 3 seats in Clare so to be struggling for 2 says alot. The question is can FG mount a strong case for a third seat? If they have visions of a majority then they have to be thinking about it.   I think they might just have a chance of it if they run a strong campaign here. But excellent vote management would be needed.

Verdict: 1FF 3FG

Limerick East:

Last time out:

*	Willie O’Dea				19,082		38.65%		2.32		1		Made Quota		1
*	Peter Power				3,569		7.23%		0.43		2		Made Quota		2
*	Michael Noonan3				7,507		15.20%		0.91		2		Made Quota		3
*	Jan O’Sullivan				5,098		10.33%		0.62		8		Made Quota		4
	Kieran O’Donnell				5,094		10.32%		0.62		8		Elected		5
*	Tim O’Malley				3,354		6.79%		0.41		(8)		Not Elected
	Noreen Ryan				1,391		2.82%		0.17		(7)		Eliminated

O’Dea country is relling from the closure of Dell and FF are going to take the fall for it. Willie will not get Peter Power in. The sizeable PD vote could possibly fall behind FG here if they run a third canidate and put them over the top for a third seat. With good vote management this should be an extra seat for FG.

Update: As Dan pointed out in comments. This is now a 4 seater. So this means peter power gone and no other change. 

Verdict: 1FF 2 FG 1 Lab

Limerick West:

Last time out:

Candidate			Party		1st Pref		Share		Quota		Count		Status		Seat
	Niall Collins				10,396		25.71%		1.03		1		Made Quota		1
*	John Cregan1				8,701		21.52%		0.86		3		Made Quota		2
*	Dan Neville				8,314		20.56%		0.82		3		Elected		3
§	Michael Finucane2				7,839		19.39%		0.78		(3)		Not Elected
	James Heffernan				2,277		5.63%		0.23		(2)		Eliminated

More plunder for FG here. They have taken 2 seats here before and with FF fortunes in the dumps they should pick up the second seat again. At whos expense is the question.

Verdict: 2FG 1FF

So that means that the changes thus far are:

Fine Gael on 9 +2

Fianna Failure on 4 -5

Labour 3 +2

Ind 1 -

All figures from the excellent Electionsireland.org

Dublin South Central’s Eric Bryne lost out in the end by 68 votes to Sinn Fein. It is hard to know where these 68 votes came from as the local conditions that resulted in this probably are very minute. However I suggest that Sinn Fein may have got their vote out better then Labour. He did well when the Green Party candidate got eliminated. Also it is mainly a problem with vote management. Labour got 21.2% of the vote compared to Sinn Fein’s 10.2%. This should have meant they could have taken 2 seats. With Mary Upton topping the poll the Labour votes were there. Eric just needed 69 of hers. Seat one lost by poor management.

In Cork South Central Dan Boyle Green Party finance spokesman lost out by about 2,000 votes which is quiet a large amount. Clearly being that far behind it is hard to blame vote management. But his first preference dropped only by 7 votes. The problem was that last time out he gained from transfers from eliminated Labour and Fine Gael candidates. WHo this time took seats. This is not one of the seats the opposition lost.

Labour/Fine Gael and Green’s did not lose seats to Fianna Fail/PD they lost seats to each other. Where Fianna Fail gained seats to compensate for the ones they lost were at the expense of independents.

In South Tipperary Fianna Fail took the seat from Seamus Healy by about 60 votes. Seamus Healy was a left wing independent and from Clonmel. Labour’s candidate was Phil Prendergast Mayor of Clonmel. Who was eliminated on the 4th count with just under 4000 votes. If she had not run could Seamus Healy have gained 60 local votes. He got about 1,100 transfers from her while Martin Mansearh got about 100. I think if she had not run he would have had enough to deny Fianna Fail a seat. Whether he would have supported the opposition or not is not certain but it certain is more likely then Martin Manserah.

In Louth Mairead McGuinness lost out to Sinn Fein’s Arthur Morgan by about 1,100 votes. The problem here was the Labour candidate and green candidate. Between them they had enough for 2 seats but only took 1. One of the problems was that the Labour candidate sent most of the transfers into Fergus O’ Dowd. But I think the biggest fault was that the Greens had no pact with Fine Gael. The Green candidate has a greater share of votes into Sinn Fein then Mairead McGuinness if the pact was stronger. Then perhaps Mairead would have got enough to put her over the line.

Cost of seat 2 no green pact.

More later.

Smith (FF) 19.7%

Hoctor (FF) 18%

Ryan (ind) No word

Coonan (FG) 15.4%

Kathleen O’Meara (Lab) 10.1%

Seamie Morris (SF) no word

South

Tom Hayes (FG) 22%

Mattie McGrath (FF) 20%

Dr Martin Mansergh (FF) 16%

Seamus Healy (ind) 14%

Phil Prendergast (Lab) 8%

Cllr. Aidan Culhane (Dublin South) wishes everyone a happy bank holiday weekend by reminding us it’s on the Labour Party. Hmmm…

If you have not seen it yet, the national treasure that is Vincent Browne asking a few questions of Bertie Ahern. 2007′s Twink tapes? Someone will rap to it yet! And the suit Vincent?! Brilliant!

I thought I’d have a look at some non political bloggers who are commenting on the election, some of the specialist bloggers in fact. Whilst waiting for Kieran and the crew in IceCream Ireland to post the pic of Jackie Healy-Rae licking a 99, I came across Through the Lens, a group blog by photographers with a post giving plenty of portrait advice to the parties. Edelmann have a PR blog on elections in Europe in 2007, their Director of Public Affairs in Dublin blogs about the latest goings on for a European audience.

Back to the candidates, Cllr. Eric Byrne (Labour) says he wouldn’t fancy going for a pint with Frank Luntz, I know a few people who have been forced to be in Luntz’s company who’d agreed with Eric. Roderic O’Gorman (Green) is the first candidate to videoblog in Dublin West – well that’s what it says here. And spot the compost bin!

Finally we have a blogging Minister. However it seems after initial openness and interest in discourse with the voters, Noel Dempsey seems to have decided to turn off the comments.

John Bracken’s posters are causing many a smile as is the photoshopping, John’s website has more photos, and a campaign commitment to sending all judges for psychological counselling twice a year. Has anyone found the song yet?

And here at IrishElection.com we’re rather chuffed at the selection as Blog of the Week (sub. req.) in the Irish Times. It’s been a fun first week covering the twists and turns, and there are 19 days to go!

Its over now, watch it when it goes live here.

Health:

• Interesting response to Caoimhghin O Caolain on health. Two out of fifty in the audience would like to see SF in government but in a head to head on health with Mary Harney the majority of the group were in favour of what he said. As with most of this stuff, divination is the only means of concluding anything (and reaffirms ones faith in the possiblity of a fighting election on original issues/positions rather than a spun one).
• Equally Harney seems to do ok personally suggesting that the issue of health is more of a problem for parties as a whole than just one minister in particular (says he in a moment of divination)

Immigration:

•  Thanks to Gerry for reminding me,  I “forgot to mention that immigration emerged as a spontaneous concern of the group early on – not that they were necessarily hostile to immigrants but they did believe there should be a debate about it.”
• On the hostility it was quite split between those who felt under seige and those who saw merits to immigration and desired clarity through debate.

Economy:

• Jobs/Economic growth are not the only indicator of economic prosperity. The focus drifts to corruption, inflation and a general negativity toward government management. Luntz: “not giving credit for jobs/growth” crowd: “yup”
• Reaction to government chat on the economy is worse than cynical. Brian Cowen is a “waffler”, “baffleing the crowd with numbers”. Opposition good but it is scepticism and cynicism with government rather than being taken with opposition that dominates reaction.
• The exception is the rating of Richard Bruton, people seem to trust him on economics.

Brian Cowen:

• Majority cannot see him as Taoiseach. Including a sizeable number of FF voters (only a small one however).

Crime:

• 5/50 know a victim of crime, almost zero experience of crime. However, “crime on the news” and “crime on the TV” and “after night club fights” cited as factors. Check Simon on this topic.
• Majority: Bail is too lenient in Ireland (equally across gov’t and opposition voters).
• More prison places, lock them up, edging toward the banning of bail.
• Panel response*: Perception driven issue, media driven problem, government need to be seen to do something (NW). Brendan Howlin disconnected language alienates voters (TP). Labour need a selling point (IY). Labour are far too old into the bargain (NW).

Advertising:

• FG billboard campaign counter productive – looks like and FF billboard (something I have felt myself).
• Message of the board are lost – most drivers only see the FF side. See the message as confused and a bad occasion of sarcasm.
• “Cheap dig” “negative ad”
• Many seem interested in the idea of a normative positive position (from the opposition specifically but I guess from most parties).
• Panel: Failure of the campaign to connect and FG have failed to connect message to people (IY).

Conclusion (from panel):

• Opposition can win only if they connect to the voters. Fail to transmit message, agenda, philosophy, outlook in a meaningful way and when it is necessary (radio and TV) (TP).
• Among floating voters (18% in Friday’s TNS/MRBI poll), there is a wide open election. FF/PDs not taken as honest, opposition not striking chords. (NW)

* TP = Terry Prone, head of Carr Communications

IY = Ivan Yates former FG minster, now retired.

NW = Noel Whelan former FF adviser and columnist with the Irish Times

Fianna Fail general election candidate Cllr. Siobhan Ambrose has been attacked by a party colleague for ‘abducting’ ministers who visit the constituency. Former Fianna Fail mayor of Clonmel Cllr .Niall Dennehy hit out at Cllr. Ambrose and said the scramble to “abduct Ministers as they descend on our shores was nauseating”. In response Cllr. Ambrose said she was surprised and disappointed that Cllr. Dennehy had “taken this line”. She said it was clear Cllr. Dennehy had a problem with her arranging meetings for constituents with visiting ministers.

But it shows signs of a deeper rift in the party in South Tipp:

This week Cllr. Dennehy challenged Cllr. Ambrose on her behaviour during a recent visit by Minister Eamonn O’Cuiv to Carrick on Suir. He also repeated his criticism of Cllr. Ambrose for arriving in Minister Dick Roche’s car for the opening of Glenconnor Housing Scheme while he was mayor of the town last June. Internal wrangling within Fianna Fail in the build up to the General Election was further exposed when Cllr. Dennehy said that some “bully boy” elements in the party were ignoring the will of the party convention which saw Cllr. Ambrose come third to Cllr. Matty McGrath and Senator Martin Mansergh.

Isn’t it truly shocking appearing in the same car as Dick Roche. Well, at least it can be said that car pooling is environmentally friendly.