As earlier posts have noted, he has never had a good sense of separation between the two roles and as Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin pointed out, the critical sentence was delivered as Gaeilge — “a united organisation is the most important thing”. So much for the Country First tone of a week ago.  Also to note at this stage, there is apparently a second bill that the government intends to pass before the election, there was a reference to the “NAMA amendment bill” which is the first I’d heard*.  Finally (for now), the FF leadership battle will pit several of the 7 FF Cabinet members against each other — a Cabinet that is already perilously close to the constitutional limit 7 and challenged in its constitutional requirement to operate as a collective.

Historical footnote: Richard Mulcahy as leader of FG served as Minister for Education in the interparty governments of the late 1940s and 1950s.

A Green Party quote to keep in mind –

A Green Party spokesman said last night that a general election was now only weeks away and the party’s TDs and Senators would consider the Labour motion on Tuesday.  But Green Party sources described the Labour motion as a “stunt” and said if Eamon Gilmore was serious about an immediate election, he would have put down a motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach rather than the Government.

FG have now supplied the former.

*The NAMA amendment bill is in the announced legislative program with a possible typo in its description.

The most recent documents on the website cover the since suspended 2.5% pay increase from 1 September 2008 and in particular the documents submitted by each department to show that they were in a process of continuous organisational improvement to merit the increase.  Remarkably, every single department was in such a process and every department got the necessary sign-off on their pay increase.  Let’s take a look at the very first thing that the Department of Finance listed under its own “Modernisation, Flexibility, Organisational Change” –

- [Action] decentralisation to  Tullamore.  [Target] October 2006. [Progress] Complete. Official opening performed by the Minister for Finance on 5 October, 2006.  [Performance Indicator] Effective functioning of Tullamore-based Business Units.

Who was that minister again?

Meath East. 

Candidate			Party		1st Pref		Share		Quota		Count		Status		Seat
°	Mary Wallace				10,901		25.35%		1.01		1		Made Quota		1
°	Shane McEntee				6,766		15.73%		0.63		8		Made Quota		2
	Thomas Byrne4				7,834		18.22%		0.73		8		Elected		3
	Dominic Hannigan				5,136		11.94%		0.48		(8)		Not Elected
	Regina Doherty				4,363		10.14%		0.41		(7)		Eliminated

This is a seat that Labour really hope to pick up. They have big hopes for Dominic Hannigan and with the FF vote down they are going to get their wish I think. At who’s expense it remains to be seen. Thomas Byrne is running for the Euros he must realise the writing is on the wall for him. Mary Wallace should be able to hang on. But she could find herself closer to 4th then she may wish with FG pushing to wipe FF out of Meath East. But I think Thomas Byrne being eliminated will give her enough transfers to get over the line. 

Verdict: 1FG 1FF 1Lab

Meath West

°	Noel Dempsey				12,006		29.67%		1.19		1		Made Quota		1
°	Johnny Brady				8,868		21.92%		0.88		2		Made Quota		2
°	Damien English				7,227		17.86%		0.71		7		Made Quota		3
	Joe Reilly				4,567		11.29%		0.45		(7)		Not Elected
	Peter Higgins				3,234		7.99%		0.32		(6)		Eliminated

Here is another would be successor to Brian Cowen after the election and certainly likely to keep his seat. But don’t be surprised if  there is a downturn in his vote. Whether or not enough dissatisfied voters can be found in Meath West to push Fine Gael into a second seat remains to be seen. They tried the celebrity thing with Grapham Gerarty and it did not work. I think Labour will see a rise in their vote here but not enough to win them the seat. Sinn Fein might also push.  But probably not enough to sweep up the anti-gov vote and send it Fine Gaels way. Status Quo to remain.  Bringing in a running mate could possibly see Noel Dempsey as the next leader. 

Verdict: 2FF 1FG

Laois Offaly

*	Brian Cowen				19,102		26.72%		1.60		1		Made Quota		1
*	Olwyn Enright				8,297		11.61%		0.70		8		Made Quota		2
*	Sean Fleming				8,064		11.28%		0.68		9		Made Quota		3
	Charlie Flanagan				9,067		12.68%		0.76		9		Made Quota		4
*	John Moloney				7,242		10.13%		0.61		11		Elected		5
	John Foley				5,899		8.25%		0.50		(11)		Not Elected
*	Tom Parlon				4,233		5.92%		0.36		(8)		Eliminated

Brian Cowens garden. Last time out they took 3 of the 5 seats. This time out with Cowen guaranteed not to be the next leader or anything but a backbencher for the rest of his career. 3 seats are not there automatically there for them. The lack of Parlon could shack up the race. Largely a Laois farming based vote. This could swing heavily behind Fine Gael. If they run another strong Laois based candidate they might very well be able to take most of Parlons vote and shape it into another seat especially if the polls hold out and they can take another say 10% of the vote coupled to Parlons vote and 15% drop for Fianna Fail. However Fianna Fail are going to be very clever with this seat. They will not spread themselves too much and will defend it. But the tide might just be going Fine Gaels way a bit too much. Close but on reflection (I have changed this prediction) Fine Gael to gain

Verdict: 3FG 2FF

Kildare North

	Aine Brady				11,245		24.88%		1.24		1		Made Quota		1
*	Emmet Stagg				7,882		17.44%		0.87		5		Made Quota		2
	Michael Fitzpatrick2				6,606		14.62%		0.73		5		Made Quota		3
*	Bernard J Durkan				5,340		11.82%		0.59		6		Made Quota		4
*	Catherine Murphy				5,188		11.48%		0.57		(6)		Not Elected
	Darren Scully				4,250		9.40%		0.47		(5)		Eliminated

Last time out the sitting Independent Cathrine Murphy lost her seat to Michael Fitzpatrick and Bernard Durkan. She had won it in a by election. Coming from the Democratic Left stable she was very much on the left of politics. Which in the current climate my certainly help her if she runs again. If not then her vote is unlikely to go the way of Fianna Fail. Alot of it may go to Labour and the Greens but as Emmet Stag may not need it, it will probably fall to FG. With this turning from a 3 to a 4 seater. Fine Gael do have a decent stab at two seats here. That is if Catherine Murphy does not stand and Labour don’t field two candidates. The Fianna Fail vote is going to be down aiding I think Emmet Stagg. But some of it will find its way to Fine Gael or Cathrine Murphy. I think Cathrine Murphy will stand again and take the seat away from Fitzpatrick. 

Verdict: 1FF 1 Lab 1 FG 1 IND

Kildare South

*	Sean O Fearghail				8,731		25.24%		1.01		1		Made Quota		1
*	Sean Power				8,694		25.13%		1.01		1		Made Quota		2
*	Jack Wall				7,154		20.68%		0.83		3		Made Quota		3
	Richard Daly2				3,353		9.69%		0.39		(3)		Not Elected
	Allan Gillis				2,586		7.48%		0.30		(3)		Not Elected

Last time out the FG vote was very poor not even combined did they have a vote to get near a seat. But remember this was Alan Dukes old seat so there is a Fine Gael vote somewhere in there. However due to the changing nature of Kildare into suburban voting local loyalties are not what they were. But the question is who would the run? Not knowing much about Kildare politics I think we have to see who emerges in Kildare after the locals. There is certainly a FG seat to be regained heras I can imagine the voter being fickle . But a lot of work yet to be done for Fine Gael here. But I think that they can take a seat here as well. Labour to be safe. 

Verdict: 1FF 1FG 1LAb

Total so far. 

Fine Gael on 36 (+10)

Fianna Fail on 21  (-18)

Labour 8 (+3)

Sinn Fein 5 (+2)

Ind 4 (+2)

Greens 1 (+1)

“There`ll be a festive atmosphere,” Tom O`Donovan of O`Donovan Cowen Solicitors, a firm in which Minister Cowen is involved, said. The solicitors firm is planning to close it`s doors on Wednesday with most of the staff travelling to Dublin to join in the celebrations.
…
The Offaly contingent have even arranged a designated meeting point in the city which they are keeping tight lipped on for now.

More celebrations will take place over the weekend as the All-Ireland Champion new Taoiseach takes a tour of his home county and, of course, Clara

Gardai and the Civil Defence are preparing for a continuation of celebrations on Saturday and Sunday when the triumphant Taoiseach arrives home.

Visiting first Edenderry at 12 noon before leaving for O`Connor Square in Tullamore at 1.30pm where up to 10,000 people are expected to greet him, Brian Cowen will attend a Civic Reception in Aras an Chontae at 3pm before returning to his home town of Clara.

In Clara, the Civil Defence will be assisting with medical points set up around the town. Some Tullamore publicans are even putting on coaches to ferry people to Clara and back.

The tour of the county will not end in Clara however as Brian Cowen will visit Ferbane at 2.30pm and Birr at 4pm on Sunday, May 11.

In my 24 years as a public representative I have come to appreciate the huge commitment and effort of the thousands of party members and supporters who are the lifeblood of the organisation. It is on their behalf that those of us who are members of the parliamentary party advance its interests and serve those of the public through our work in the Oireachtas.
….
I have witnessed this work from close quarters and it is with the greatest possible respect for Bertie Ahern’s contribution to our party’s welfare and with genuine humility that I put my name forward. It follows that I would be deeply honoured if my parliamentary colleagues determine that I should succeed the Taoiseach as party leader and to be their nominee for the then vacant position of Taoiseach.

Perhaps too much can be read into the nominees in this situation but Cowen will no doubt have had his pick of people to nominate him. Lenihan is making slow progress with his brief in Justice and will no doubt seek to fill the gap left by the Cappo di tutti cappi in Dublin Fianna Fail.

Succeeding Cowen as Deputy Leader – delivering Cowen a degree of weight in Dublin where Fianna Fail will need it, and moving at some point to Finance before the election, appear to be the natural signs of Lenihan’s progression toward that goal and the metrics of his success – again it may be too much to read into him nominating Cowen but its our place to speculate.

Cowen probably wont miss responding to news like this from the central bank as Minister Responsible.