1.  The increasing strangeness of constituency boundaries.  The constituency map inevitably dilutes the role of the county despite the fact that county identification is still strong.  It’s one thing to split a county when it grows but there are also the odd creations when towns are shuffled between the constituencies with little clear logic other than getting numbers right, and especially when those adjustments cross county lines.  Cases in point: Kells moved from Meath West to East and parts of Meath East near Drogheda moved to Louth, Kerry North now with bits of Limerick.  This doesn’t seem like the right way to build up local government.

The flip side of this are the multi-county constituencies where the vote dynamics are still highly local — many references this evening to “the Laois candidate”, the “Carlow candidate” etc.  The alternative: rather than shoe-horning the voters into 3, 4, and 5 seaters, do we find a way to strenthen the county basis or else move to much larger constituencies with more room for regional or national profiles?

2.  It’s impressive the way that the pundits are able to keep track of so many local candidates but it’s not perfect.  The RTE panel seemed surprised by Sinn Fein’s individual successes outside Dublin, even though people following local politics knew that SF were building up at the local level for years, with payoff obscured by SF’s poor showing in 2007.  Which brings me to …

3.  The slow-acting poison of Fianna Fail’s string of bad local election results.  It’s been a case of attrition with each local election but the party seemed to have its modus vivendi with local government: as long as it was on the central government revenue drip-feed and as long as TDs had their own operatives on the councils to feed the political machine, it didn’t matter that much.  And anyway, they won the 2007 general, so what was the problem?  Well, now we know.  Political bases for the opposition were being nurtured, even if they took time to cash in.  One consequence of this: as the national pundit panels contemplated the likelihood of nearly 20 independents, they had trouble naming who they were, beyond those with a media profile like Shane Ross and Mick Wallace.  Yet these now less anonymous TDs could have a big role in determining what the government and opposition looks like over the coming years.

4.  We need to talk about social partnership.  Brian Lenihan is sitting on a report — the evaluation of the Department of Finance — that apparently (going by the bits he has leaked) makes a damning indictment of social partnership and its impact on the economics and political governance of the country.  Of course, it also likely makes a damning indictment of the department itself.  But if we couldn’t have an election at least informed by the arguments in that report, how about now when crucial decisions are being made about how to run the country, especially given the complex relationship between the unions and Labour, now likely to be in government.  So, over to you caretaker Minister Lenihan.

5.  Do FF really believe their comeback challenge is of the same order of magnitude as what FG faced in 2002?  That was one of the favourite talking points yesterday.  It seems like a generous interpretation of their predicament, and even on its face, it should note that FG’s comeback included the 2007 disappointment.   Although if there was ever an election to lose …. but that’s another story.

6.  Who are the young guns on which FF can build … and yes I hear several voices raised saying “Averil Power”.  Well we can allow for count night pressure but still, one has to note that the FF spokesperson on political reform didn’t  have much to say last night about political reform, and couldn’t seem to handle Vincent Brown’s banter challenging her for an admission that FF wrecked the country.  And it mightn’t be a bad idea if every young person now working up the FF ranks was asked what concrete concerns they had about Bertie Ahern’s conduct as party operatives and why, assuming they had concerns, they joined anyway — a question that that the now exiting Cowen generation never faced despite their Haughey-era vintage.

7.  With the count on a weekend, we don’t yet know the opinion of … “the markets”.  It might be worth letting them indicate what they think the next government is going to do before making any rash decisions.  Sell on the rumour, buy on the news, or something.

Mr Justice Peter Kelly was told today that the [M1] tolling company is claiming it had a legitimate expectation, including a promise from the Minister for Transport Noel Dempsey, that tolls would go only up. The court heard that the Minister told the Dáil in June last year that the by-laws provide for an upward only review of tolls.

The authority says that the by-laws do not make any express reference to an upward only toll system and, in fact, provide a mechanism to allow for a decrease.  Senior Counsel, Shane Murphy said the company was advocating an interpretation of the by-laws which would insulate it from all external realities. He said that the Minister’s statement could not be regarded as a ‘promise’, as it was said after the contract between the NRA and the company was finalised in 2004.

4 days before the election, it’s worth remembering that it’s not just about the financial crisis and its aftermath.  It’s about the insanity of everything goes up and all our top people are worth it that went before.  Even now we don’t know for sure the guarantees on tolls and minimum usage that the tolling companies on M1, M3, M4 etc were given.  It’s a shame that Minister Dempsey is not running so that at least the voters of Meath West and (indirectly) East could have passed judgement on his tolling policy implications for the county.   Note incidentally that the argument used by the NRA — that laws can’t be interpreted as providing insulation from all external realities — applies in spades to the question of paying off bondholders in insolvent banks.

Meath East. 

Candidate			Party		1st Pref		Share		Quota		Count		Status		Seat
°	Mary Wallace				10,901		25.35%		1.01		1		Made Quota		1
°	Shane McEntee				6,766		15.73%		0.63		8		Made Quota		2
	Thomas Byrne4				7,834		18.22%		0.73		8		Elected		3
	Dominic Hannigan				5,136		11.94%		0.48		(8)		Not Elected
	Regina Doherty				4,363		10.14%		0.41		(7)		Eliminated

This is a seat that Labour really hope to pick up. They have big hopes for Dominic Hannigan and with the FF vote down they are going to get their wish I think. At who’s expense it remains to be seen. Thomas Byrne is running for the Euros he must realise the writing is on the wall for him. Mary Wallace should be able to hang on. But she could find herself closer to 4th then she may wish with FG pushing to wipe FF out of Meath East. But I think Thomas Byrne being eliminated will give her enough transfers to get over the line. 

Verdict: 1FG 1FF 1Lab

Meath West

°	Noel Dempsey				12,006		29.67%		1.19		1		Made Quota		1
°	Johnny Brady				8,868		21.92%		0.88		2		Made Quota		2
°	Damien English				7,227		17.86%		0.71		7		Made Quota		3
	Joe Reilly				4,567		11.29%		0.45		(7)		Not Elected
	Peter Higgins				3,234		7.99%		0.32		(6)		Eliminated

Here is another would be successor to Brian Cowen after the election and certainly likely to keep his seat. But don’t be surprised if  there is a downturn in his vote. Whether or not enough dissatisfied voters can be found in Meath West to push Fine Gael into a second seat remains to be seen. They tried the celebrity thing with Grapham Gerarty and it did not work. I think Labour will see a rise in their vote here but not enough to win them the seat. Sinn Fein might also push.  But probably not enough to sweep up the anti-gov vote and send it Fine Gaels way. Status Quo to remain.  Bringing in a running mate could possibly see Noel Dempsey as the next leader. 

Verdict: 2FF 1FG

Laois Offaly

*	Brian Cowen				19,102		26.72%		1.60		1		Made Quota		1
*	Olwyn Enright				8,297		11.61%		0.70		8		Made Quota		2
*	Sean Fleming				8,064		11.28%		0.68		9		Made Quota		3
	Charlie Flanagan				9,067		12.68%		0.76		9		Made Quota		4
*	John Moloney				7,242		10.13%		0.61		11		Elected		5
	John Foley				5,899		8.25%		0.50		(11)		Not Elected
*	Tom Parlon				4,233		5.92%		0.36		(8)		Eliminated

Brian Cowens garden. Last time out they took 3 of the 5 seats. This time out with Cowen guaranteed not to be the next leader or anything but a backbencher for the rest of his career. 3 seats are not there automatically there for them. The lack of Parlon could shack up the race. Largely a Laois farming based vote. This could swing heavily behind Fine Gael. If they run another strong Laois based candidate they might very well be able to take most of Parlons vote and shape it into another seat especially if the polls hold out and they can take another say 10% of the vote coupled to Parlons vote and 15% drop for Fianna Fail. However Fianna Fail are going to be very clever with this seat. They will not spread themselves too much and will defend it. But the tide might just be going Fine Gaels way a bit too much. Close but on reflection (I have changed this prediction) Fine Gael to gain

Verdict: 3FG 2FF

Kildare North

	Aine Brady				11,245		24.88%		1.24		1		Made Quota		1
*	Emmet Stagg				7,882		17.44%		0.87		5		Made Quota		2
	Michael Fitzpatrick2				6,606		14.62%		0.73		5		Made Quota		3
*	Bernard J Durkan				5,340		11.82%		0.59		6		Made Quota		4
*	Catherine Murphy				5,188		11.48%		0.57		(6)		Not Elected
	Darren Scully				4,250		9.40%		0.47		(5)		Eliminated

Last time out the sitting Independent Cathrine Murphy lost her seat to Michael Fitzpatrick and Bernard Durkan. She had won it in a by election. Coming from the Democratic Left stable she was very much on the left of politics. Which in the current climate my certainly help her if she runs again. If not then her vote is unlikely to go the way of Fianna Fail. Alot of it may go to Labour and the Greens but as Emmet Stag may not need it, it will probably fall to FG. With this turning from a 3 to a 4 seater. Fine Gael do have a decent stab at two seats here. That is if Catherine Murphy does not stand and Labour don’t field two candidates. The Fianna Fail vote is going to be down aiding I think Emmet Stagg. But some of it will find its way to Fine Gael or Cathrine Murphy. I think Cathrine Murphy will stand again and take the seat away from Fitzpatrick. 

Verdict: 1FF 1 Lab 1 FG 1 IND

Kildare South

*	Sean O Fearghail				8,731		25.24%		1.01		1		Made Quota		1
*	Sean Power				8,694		25.13%		1.01		1		Made Quota		2
*	Jack Wall				7,154		20.68%		0.83		3		Made Quota		3
	Richard Daly2				3,353		9.69%		0.39		(3)		Not Elected
	Allan Gillis				2,586		7.48%		0.30		(3)		Not Elected

Last time out the FG vote was very poor not even combined did they have a vote to get near a seat. But remember this was Alan Dukes old seat so there is a Fine Gael vote somewhere in there. However due to the changing nature of Kildare into suburban voting local loyalties are not what they were. But the question is who would the run? Not knowing much about Kildare politics I think we have to see who emerges in Kildare after the locals. There is certainly a FG seat to be regained heras I can imagine the voter being fickle . But a lot of work yet to be done for Fine Gael here. But I think that they can take a seat here as well. Labour to be safe. 

Verdict: 1FF 1FG 1LAb

Total so far. 

Fine Gael on 36 (+10)

Fianna Fail on 21  (-18)

Labour 8 (+3)

Sinn Fein 5 (+2)

Ind 4 (+2)

Greens 1 (+1)

Transport minister Noel Dempsey has intervened in a controversial pylon dispute by calling on EirGrid to re-route the high voltage lines underground along the new M3 motorway in Meath. Dempsey, whose constituency is in Meath West, got advice from the National Roads Authority, on the option of the underground route – a move that EirGrid claims could cost up to €1.8 billion, ten times the current cost of the project.

Now the reason that he is doing this is blatant he even admits it.

Ina statement to The Sunday Business Post this weekend, Dempsey said: ‘‘As a result of representations made to me by constituents on this issue, I had a number of meetings with EirGrid and requested them to fully examine the option of putting the power lines underground.

So what about the kids is it not worth spend 1.8 billion to save all the children in Meath. Will they not get cancer and stuff?  There is very little research on this to prove a link leukaemia in children and power lines. The Cancer Research UK people say this.

Even if future research shows that EMFs from power lines can cause childhood leukaemia, they are unlikely to be a major cause of this disease. Less than 1% of UK children with leukaemia come from homes with the highest EMF levels.

Slightly less then 1% of kids also live near power lines. Cancer Research UK also says

The World Health Organisation has recommended that some precautions could be taken but the current evidence is not strong enough to warrant anything beyond very low cost measures.

So there you have the World Health Organization believe that there is very little evidence to support the claims that there is any health risks to the population. Certainly less people would suffer and die of cancer if the 1.8 billion was spent on cancer care and research in this country. Alas we do not operate like that in this country. It is all about the small picture it is all about the price of houses it is not a case of making the scientific arguments but caving into the parish pump. Sometimes it is minuscule and sometimes it will cost us 1.8 billion Euro. And sometimes it will get Noel Dempsey re-elected. Of course no opposition party is going to take this up because they too want to get elected in Meath.

The PDF is out here and there are a number of expected changes as well as some not so expected one. Dun Laoghaire moves to a four seater and one would think that nails the O Malley move back to Limerick should she become PD leader. However the fact that it is no longer a five seat constituency makes the decision a very tough one for O’Malley. It could well be hobsons choice which one to take.

It had been consensus that they would become a 5 seater instead of taking in some of Limerick but there you are. The Limerick constituencies also change as a result of losing a chunk to Kerry. There is a greater Limerick constituency which will be a 3 seater and Limerick City which will be a four seater. The geography of the move sees Newcastle-West remain in Limerick while Abbeyfeale and Glin move out to Kerry North-West Limerick. This means that Kerry South is an effective two seater should these stay in place until the next election with John O Donoghue automatically reelected thanks to being Ceann Comhairle. A two seater in Kerry South will make it into a first past the post style election and the permutations will be interesting. O Donoghue had a 4,000 odd lead over 2nd place this time round and he had 9,000 in total. If those votes remain in FF there will be a dogfight to hit 6-8k first preference votes or possibly even more to get one of two seats. Considering Fleming did better on first preferences than either of the two that won out ahead of him, there is every chance of an FF 1-2.

Ninteen of the current constituencies remain unchanged. These are; Carlow-Kilkenny, Waterford, Longford Westmeath, Clare, Wexford, Galway West, Dublin Central, Wicklow, Cork South Central, Cork South West, Galway East, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin South East, Tipp South, Mayo, Dublin South West, Dublin North West, Dublin South Central, Cavan-Monaghan.

The Dublin Euro Constituency is set to drop to a 3 seat constituency which will make it one of the most appealing election contests in the 2009 Euros. Longford and Westmeath transfer out of the East Constituency and into the North-West and all four Euro areas are now 3 seaters.

Joe Higgins will probably be grinding his teeth to read that Dublin West gets an extra seat, of all the constituencies at election time it was surely this one which stood as testament to the need to redraw boundaries for a fair election. I was talking to some people who are very knowledgable on the redrawing process and they said that once the provisional results were out in March, it took them 2-3 days to redraw boundaries to a fair and constitutional range. They even mentioned it to some in the Dept of Environment who were shocked (!) that it could be done so quickly. Of course it was ignored but its a little insight nonetheless.

Louth is to gain a seat to become a five seater while the two Meaths will remain 3 seaters. Louth will gain the Meath East areas of Julianstown and part of Saint Mary’s (17,333 or so people) which could see a number of power bases divided (I think Thomas Byrne has a good vote from the coast where he was competing with Dominic Hannigan for those votes). There may well be a move made into the new five seater by one of those or perhaps another local politicians who fancies his chances.

Leitrim may be happy to see a concentration in the Sligo-North Leitrim constituency as 3,500 or so move into that constituency.

For Keith in Comments:

• Eleven 5-seat constituencies are proposed (12 at present): Carlow-Kilkenny, Cavan-Monaghan, Cork South-Central, Dublin South, Dublin South-Central, Galway West, Laois-Offaly, Louth, Mayo, Wexford and Wicklow.
• Fifteen 4-seaters are proposed (13 at present): Clare, Cork East, Cork North-Central, Dublin Central, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin North, Dublin South-East, Dublin South-West, Dublin West, Du´n Laoghaire, Galway East, Kildare North, Limerick City, Longford-Westmeath and Waterford.
• Seventeen 3-seaters are proposed (18 at present): Cork North-West, Cork South-West, Donegal North-East, Donegal South-West, Dublin North-Central, Dublin North-East, Dublin North-West, Kerry North-West Limerick, Kerry South, Kildare South, Limerick, Meath East, Meath West, Roscommon-South Leitrim, Sligo-North Leitrim, Tipperary North and Tipperary South.

The proportionality of three seaters is known to distort our overall levels of proportionality and it has only moderately been addressed by adjusting Dublin West. Still two other three-seaters in Dublin could certainly have been adjusted and proportionality improved. Gilmore makes this point in the first press release we have on the Commission and bemoans the reduction in the number of five seaters. That is likely to be echoed by smaller parties as five seaters are the best chance they have of increasing their presence in the system. Three seaters are fine and dandy for FF and FG indeed the continued high number could help Kenny (or whomever) continue to build on Fine Gael’s totals in May.

Not to mention last week Gormley was being canned for doing a u-turn on incineration. Cannot wait to see the press releases from the opposition on this one.

Edit: As if on cue. “The Green party used to wear sandals. Now they seem to prefer flip-flops!”.

(2) Not to be undone, the Green’s Louth Councillor Mark Dearey has condemned the decision, Greens taking notes from FF on how to be their own opposition;

“While acknowledging the Bord’s independence in these matters and the fact that they can only make decisions in accordance with the existing waste management policy they have clearly taken no account of the recent announcements on incineration issues made by Environment Minister John Gormley since in his appointment in June.

“There are better ways of dealing with waste. These previous Government’s waste management regulations were essentially drawn up late in the last century.

“Since going into Government the Green Party has succeeded in changing the direction away from incineration and into sustainable waste recovery methods and it is our intention to maintain this course despite today’s decision. For instance, by ruling changes to landfill levies that would favour incineration we have taken away much of the commercial incentive to build incinerators.

“I would seriously question Minister Dempsey’s claims that the orbital route is justified from an environmental point of view. If any infrastructure projects should be fast-tracked for economic or environmental reasons they should be projects focused on public transport, not additional motorways. We must redress years of under funding in public transport infrastructure in order to give commuters a viable alternative to private car journeys.

“The M50 is now a miserable part of the Dublin commuting experience, rather than the ring road it was designed to be. By the time the extra lanes open, demand – caused by short-sighted planning decisions, a lack of public transport and unchecked growth in car sales – will have the road bogged down in gridlock again.

“Exactly the same thing will happen to the orbital route unless rail projects, such as the Navan rail link are first completed and the Dublin Interconnector is prioritised”

As was mentioned by a commenter here recently and very validly, the route could also be subservient to the delivery of infrastructure in the West and rural areas where bad roads continue to kill (alongside speed and drink-driving) and traffic chokes even the smaller country towns. The Orbital Route however will be prioritised as a matter of course for Dempsey, bringing with it the headache balancing act for Bertie. The delivery of the route can probably be agreed upon with a completion date far enough away to cement compromise but it seems unlikely that it will not be built.

Its also interesting that the role which Ciaran Cuffe appears to have taken up within the Greens since the ascent to Government. He speaks as a Green half-in half-out of government, something very familiar to Fianna Fail members in the country side. Acting as internal opposition/conscience brings its own benefits of neutralising debate and criticism to manageable levels and certainly that is something the Green party will be seeking in the first few months of the Dail. Whether people in the consituencies will be happy with announcements alone or demand to see the concerns reflected in cabinet compromise is likely to be the really big test over the fist couple of years of Greens in government. It is why they are there after all.

The site at Lismullen is a National Monument but as was reported earlier, the recommendation of the National Museum was to preserve it by record and not interrupt the routing of the motor-way. The letter from Marcin Libicki states;

“Several members [of the committee] voiced concerns about recent developments related to the M3 project at Tara and Lismullin and the Skryne Valley,” Mr Libicki wrote.

“Many members, including myself, share the view that in the light of the discovery of previously unrecorded, yet vitally important archaeology on the current route at Lismullin and nearby, urgent action is needed to halt existing works in this area and to review the routing of this section of the M3 motorway.”

This opens up the possibility that the current route may need to redo its Environmental Impact Assessment in light of the find at Lismullen. The Indo reported last month that the EU may move to halt the works on the M3 since the demolition at Lismullen may contravene an EU directive regarding Environmental Impact Assessments. Though the letter is not legally binding, it is a highly public rap on the knuckles from the EU and one which Gormley would have been quick to pounce on were he in opposition.

The promise of more uncomfortable news come Autumn time as the EU takes the government to court could well lead to some change in tack with regard to the motorway. Minister Gormley is said to have stressed his powerlessness to undo Minister Roche’s decision to excavate Lismullen and continue to build. There is some suggestion however from Tarawatch that he may change the route and the EU position may not be dissimilar to that of the activists.