The Central Bank governor says what everyone knows, that new state shareholdings in B of I and AIB are coming.   And the closure of Halifax/Bank of Scotland (Ireland) retail is going to leave the government with some explaining to do.  NAMA still does not have its state aid clearance from the EU.  A small competitor choosing to exit the market while the big ones get ready to feed at the NAMA trough is bad for the case that NAMA is not hurting competition.

These are things that an economically literate opposition TD might want to comment on.  But perhaps Charlie Bird’s perch in Washington is more appealing.  George will be better at the socializing than Charlie was — and unlike the 27,000 voters of Dublin South, any friends he makes in America will know ahead of time that he’ll eventually be leaving.

At 1pm today former RTE economist and more recently celebrity by-election candidate, George Lee, announced he is resiging his Dáil seat and his membership of the Fine Gael party.

It wasn’t happening fast enough for him. He wasn’t a Minister yet. So he flew the coop. Barely a TD six months – could it have been the shortest career in Irish politics?

The harder they come…

Lee would to well to look back through the constituency record. Dublin South has a reputation for bringing candidates into it’s bosom in the bye-elections and spitting them soon after. Garland, Fitzgerald, O’Donnell…

The Dublin Central count is far closer. Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe, while leading early on is not streaking ahead. Given that the early drop-outs are likely to be lesser known leftist candidates, followed by Christy Burke – who will likely transfer to The Gregory Candidate, Maureen O’Sullivan – this doesn’t look too healthy for Donohoe. Maurice Ahern (polling at just 15%) will probably follow Burke, De Udder Brudder is another candidate unlikely to pass transfers to Paschal Donohoe so Maureen O’Sullivan is very strong early on. Ivana Bacik may pull out a shocker and grab more transfers from the more minor candidates and/or Sinn Féin but that looks unlikely.

Other reports say Mannix Flynn is polling strongly in the Dublin City Council local election.

Dun Laoghaire

*	Mary Hanafin				11,884		20.24%		1.21		1		Made Quota		1
*	Barry Andrews				8,587		14.63%		0.88		2		Made Quota		2
*	Eamon Gilmore				7,127		12.14%		0.73		7		Made Quota		3
	Sean Barrett1				5,361		9.13%		0.55		9		Made Quota		4
*	Ciaran Cuffe				4,534		7.72%		0.46		10		Made Quota		5
	Richard Boyd Barrett				5,233		8.91%		0.53		(10)		Not Elected
	Eugene Regan				4,162		7.09%		0.43		(8)		Eliminated

This is dropping from a 5 seater to a 4 seater which is going to render Ciaran Cuffe gone I feel, but also the Fianna Fail vote is going to fall. Another factor is the Fiona O’Malley PD vote that is gone. Last time out Richard Boyd Barrett polled very strongly and with a general shift to the left might benefit him. Eamon Gilmore the countries most popular leader is going to top the poll here and I suspect that they will run two candidates here. There used to be 2 left seats here (Lab and DL) and I think even with a fall in the number of seats that there is still 2 here. So who is going to suffer? One I think Ciaran Cuffe will lose out. I also think that Barry Andrews seat is going to suffer from either Richard Boyd Barrett or and a second Labour candidate. And I think also Mary Hanafin vote is also going to suffer. The PD vote is going to swing behind Fine Gael and the left wing parties. Pushing for the shock ejection of 2 sitting high profile FF members. (every election has its shock.)

Verdict: 2FG 2 Lab

Dublin West

*	Brian Lenihan2 Jnr				11,125		32.74%		1.31		1		Made Quota		1
	Dr Leo Varadkar				6,928		20.39%		0.82		5		Made Quota		2
*	Joan Burton				5,799		17.06%		0.68		5		Elected		3
*	Joe Higgins				5,066		14.91%		0.60		(5)		Not Elected
	Gerry Lynam				1,601		4.71%		0.19		(4)		Eliminated

This seat would have been an amazing battle if it was not for the fact that it is now a 4 seater. There is 4 big hitters here in Joe Higgins Joan Burton Leo Varadkar and Brian Lenihan. And I think that it will return them. While Lenihan will think a massive hit possibly as the focus point of all the anger about the economic miss-management. I think he will poll enough to fight off a second FG candidate.

Verdict: 1FF 1 FG 1Lab 1 Soc 

Dublin South 

Candidate			Party		1st Pref		Share		Quota		Count		Status		Seat
*	Seamus Brennan				13,373		21.85%		1.31		1		Made Quota		1
*	Tom Kitt				8,487		13.87%		0.83		3		Made Quota		2
*	Olivia Mitchell				8,037		13.13%		0.79		7		Made Quota		3
*	Eamon Ryan				6,768		11.06%		0.66		8		Made Quota		4
	Alan Shatter				5,752		9.40%		0.56		9		Made Quota		5
	Maria Corrigan				3,438		5.62%		0.34		(9)		Not Elected
	Alex White				3,575		5.84%		0.35		(7)		Eliminated

So Geogre lee country. It is looking very like FG are going to take a third seat here in the by-election. But in a general would they do the same? It is certainly not guaranteed. A by-election  is closer to a first past the post election then a STV election. transfers don’t matter that much. What it does do is up the profiles of the candidates involved as the media coverage is greater. So say that everything goes to plan and Lee wins it. What happens in a general? Well Tom Kitt is not running again so that will leave FF running an unknown. A difficult task without the impending doom of the party hanging over head. I can’t see FF pulling a seat out of here with an unknown. This is going to aid Labour as they will be the home of some of that vote. Indeed they will take the third seat.George Lee will top the poll if he gets some more media training. Alan Shatter will benefit. I think that the Greens and FF will be fighting for the last seat and I think Eamon Ryan will take it with by having name recognition.  

 Verdict: 3FG 1 Lab 1 Green

Dublin South East

	Chris Andrews				6,600		19.50%		0.98		3		Made Quota		1
	Lucinda Creighton				6,311		18.65%		0.93		5		Made Quota		2
*	Ruairi Quinn				5,636		16.65%		0.83		5		Made Quota		3
*	John Gormley2				4,685		13.84%		0.69		5		Elected		4
*	Michael McDowell				4,450		13.15%		0.66		(5)		Not Elected
	Jim O’Callaghan				3,120		9.22%		0.46		(4)		Eliminated

This was legendary last time out, Gormley and McDowell face to face up poll to up poll.The rumble in Ranelagh

With Rumours of McDowell returning could we have a re-run? That would be great TV. Either way I think Gormley is in trouble. I think if McDowell returns or FG run a second candidate that vote is going to run towards him/her and Gormley is going to be found wanting. He might end up in a scrap with Chris Andrews. But I think Fianna Fail can keep it. 

Verdict: 2FG 1 Lab 1FF

Dublin South Central

Candidate			Party		1st Pref		Share		Quota		Count		Status		Seat
*	Sean Ardagh				8,286		17.43%		1.05		1		Made Quota		1
*	Michael Mulcahy				7,439		15.65%		0.94		3		Made Quota		2
*	Mary Upton				5,987		12.60%		0.76		9		Made Quota		3
	Catherine Byrne2				4,713		9.92%		0.59		10		Elected		4
*	Aengus O Snodaigh				4,825		10.15%		0.61		10		Elected		5
	Eric Byrne				4,054		8.53%		0.51		(10)		Not Elected
	Tony McDermott				2,756		5.80%		0.35		(8)		Eliminated

This is a seat that Labour have been after for a while. They had high hopes of it last year and lost it by 69 votes. They are unlikely to lose out this time. But where last time out they looked to take the seat off Sinn Fein now they are going to be chasing Fianna Fail. In 2002 Gay Mitchell topped the poll but having lost to Enda in the FG leadership election he decided to go off to Europe. Back then the Fianna Fail vote needed transfers to put them in. Now they will be down and transferphobic. I am sure FG  would not mind having Mitchell back and challenge for 2 seats. But I am not sure he would come back. Which is good news for Labour because I think they will squeeze the last seat away from Fianna Fail.

Verdict: 2 Lab 1 SF 1FG 1 FF

Fine Gael on 65 (+15)

Fianna Fail on 38 (-29)

Labour 22 (+7)

Sinn Fein 7 (+2)

Ind 5 (+3)

Greens 3 (0)

Socialists 1 (+1)

So that was George the day after he resigned from RTE and according to tomorrows Sunday Tribune, 6 days after he had his publicity shots taken for the campaign and before he resigned from RTE. Indeed the senior Tribune correspondents claim he appeared on television as Economic Correspondent and criticised Government Policy the day after he had the photos taken.

Oops…I’m sure Mr. Smooth will explain it away creaselessly and we’ll move on to the next story.  The video is very interesting for it’s vigour and unusual clarity (unusual for Fine Gael!) though – a few front bench spokespersons are probably reassessing their career plans!

And yes I know you’ve had enough of Mr. Lee – so if anyone has a copy of Ivana Bacick’s enthusiastic endorsement in Dublin Central last week please send it our way.  Or Maurice Ahern or Shay Brennan? We’re all ears!

Fine Gael Party Leader, Enda Kenny TD, will today (Wednesday) meet George Lee, as well as sitting Dublin South TDs Olivia Mitchell and Alan Shatter for a media doorstep at 5:15pm at the Kildare St. Gate of Leinster House.

After managing to get a full 24 hours out of his candidacy for Fine Gael – right up to Pat Kenny’s show today, George Lee will finally meet the leader of his party (for the first time? George insists he hasn’t met Kenny in the toing and froing up to his announcement). Hopefully we get some lovely pictures of gritted teeth.

This close to the close of nominations, it’s highly unlikely any other candidate will come forward (or be able to beat Bacik in a nomination contest).

Senator Pascal Donohoe of Fine Gael had been seen as the likely winner of this by-election (with Labour’s Alex White the favourite in Dublin South), but the entry of a high profile media-friendly candidate like Bacik into the race will put that at risk.

Labour now must have a real chance of winning both by-elections.

Other notables that are mentioned in the piece include Newstalk’s George Hook, who aside from presenting the drivetime show has also given motivational speeches for Fine Gael at their annual think-in. It was Fine Gael who dismissed that idea.

I don’t see the logic in parachuting in some sort of notable ‘celebrity’ style candidate to a by-election. I would have thought that a candidate with a strong local presence, solid canvassing behind them and a solid grasp of national issues would be much better placed in the current climate. TDs are after all local fixers in the bad times even more so than the good times. George will fix it indeed.

Fianna Fail are deeply unpopular and in a bind to take either Dublin South or Dublin Central by-elections (with Maurice Ahern being linked to the FF nomination for that post). That doesn’t open up the traps to some national notable to slot in though, it can seem hubristic to parachute in such a candidate. Fine Gael’s rating is sufficient to be confident in a head to head with Alex White, the other leadign contender from Labour.

The five seater Dublin South presents FG with the chance to take three seats (and it looks like they are trying to repeat the trick of getting John O Mahony to take a third seat in Mayo). If they want to do that then they do need to get their third person and give a good run in June. The issue with celebrity candidates is they need to win first time out, unless they are a true believer they will be unlikely to go a second time.