We will develop Dublin Docklands into a world-class city quarter, a paragon of sustainable inner city regeneration, one in which the whole community enjoys the highest standards of access to education, employment, housing and social amenity and which delivers a major contribution to the social and economic prosperity of Dublin and the whole of Ireland.

Er … isn’t that a job that usually goes to an elected layer of government?

As you get deeper into the report, it becomes clearly that all the supposed safeguards that were built into the organization proved meaningless as it went on a frenzy of property speculation and clearly relied upon its public status in its willingness to finance the doomed purchase of the Irish Glass Bottle site with Bernard McNamara and the media’s favourite property investor, the man who flew the tricolour over the Savoy, Derek Quinlan.

And now we have another quango that is going to be investor in speculative property with all sorts of promised oversight.  A 54 billion quango.  But anyway, we ‘ll come back to it in a minute.

A critical assumption of DDDA’s accounts is that they were prepared on the assumption that it was a “going concern”.  That’s quite an achievement for an entity with a 213 million euro loss.  Ultimately this is only sustained by the prospect of government support — for what is supposed to be a commercial entity.  A not unrelated wheeze was used by Brian Lenihan when he nationalized Anglo Irish last January — it was done with an assurance from the Financial Regulator that Anglo was “solvent”.  The accounts for an entity being wound up look very different from those that intend to continue trading, and in fact it’s illegal for a company to act like the latter when it faces the former.   But the government has the privilege of having a word means whatever it wants it to mean.

In conclusion, a word about NAMA from DDDA –

The long term economic value of the Irish Glass Bottle site as defined in the draft National Asset Management Agency regulations is considered to be in the order of €62.5 million. As disclosed in Note 1 to the financial statements, the lower market valuation of €50 million has been used as a basis for determining the Authority’s share in the financial statements.

Long-term economic value: good enough for the Irish taxpayer, not good enough for DDDA’s accountants.   Maybe we should all buy shares in Newry shopping centres.

Dun Laoghaire

*	Mary Hanafin				11,884		20.24%		1.21		1		Made Quota		1
*	Barry Andrews				8,587		14.63%		0.88		2		Made Quota		2
*	Eamon Gilmore				7,127		12.14%		0.73		7		Made Quota		3
	Sean Barrett1				5,361		9.13%		0.55		9		Made Quota		4
*	Ciaran Cuffe				4,534		7.72%		0.46		10		Made Quota		5
	Richard Boyd Barrett				5,233		8.91%		0.53		(10)		Not Elected
	Eugene Regan				4,162		7.09%		0.43		(8)		Eliminated

This is dropping from a 5 seater to a 4 seater which is going to render Ciaran Cuffe gone I feel, but also the Fianna Fail vote is going to fall. Another factor is the Fiona O’Malley PD vote that is gone. Last time out Richard Boyd Barrett polled very strongly and with a general shift to the left might benefit him. Eamon Gilmore the countries most popular leader is going to top the poll here and I suspect that they will run two candidates here. There used to be 2 left seats here (Lab and DL) and I think even with a fall in the number of seats that there is still 2 here. So who is going to suffer? One I think Ciaran Cuffe will lose out. I also think that Barry Andrews seat is going to suffer from either Richard Boyd Barrett or and a second Labour candidate. And I think also Mary Hanafin vote is also going to suffer. The PD vote is going to swing behind Fine Gael and the left wing parties. Pushing for the shock ejection of 2 sitting high profile FF members. (every election has its shock.)

Verdict: 2FG 2 Lab

Dublin West

*	Brian Lenihan2 Jnr				11,125		32.74%		1.31		1		Made Quota		1
	Dr Leo Varadkar				6,928		20.39%		0.82		5		Made Quota		2
*	Joan Burton				5,799		17.06%		0.68		5		Elected		3
*	Joe Higgins				5,066		14.91%		0.60		(5)		Not Elected
	Gerry Lynam				1,601		4.71%		0.19		(4)		Eliminated

This seat would have been an amazing battle if it was not for the fact that it is now a 4 seater. There is 4 big hitters here in Joe Higgins Joan Burton Leo Varadkar and Brian Lenihan. And I think that it will return them. While Lenihan will think a massive hit possibly as the focus point of all the anger about the economic miss-management. I think he will poll enough to fight off a second FG candidate.

Verdict: 1FF 1 FG 1Lab 1 Soc 

Dublin South 

Candidate			Party		1st Pref		Share		Quota		Count		Status		Seat
*	Seamus Brennan				13,373		21.85%		1.31		1		Made Quota		1
*	Tom Kitt				8,487		13.87%		0.83		3		Made Quota		2
*	Olivia Mitchell				8,037		13.13%		0.79		7		Made Quota		3
*	Eamon Ryan				6,768		11.06%		0.66		8		Made Quota		4
	Alan Shatter				5,752		9.40%		0.56		9		Made Quota		5
	Maria Corrigan				3,438		5.62%		0.34		(9)		Not Elected
	Alex White				3,575		5.84%		0.35		(7)		Eliminated

So Geogre lee country. It is looking very like FG are going to take a third seat here in the by-election. But in a general would they do the same? It is certainly not guaranteed. A by-election  is closer to a first past the post election then a STV election. transfers don’t matter that much. What it does do is up the profiles of the candidates involved as the media coverage is greater. So say that everything goes to plan and Lee wins it. What happens in a general? Well Tom Kitt is not running again so that will leave FF running an unknown. A difficult task without the impending doom of the party hanging over head. I can’t see FF pulling a seat out of here with an unknown. This is going to aid Labour as they will be the home of some of that vote. Indeed they will take the third seat.George Lee will top the poll if he gets some more media training. Alan Shatter will benefit. I think that the Greens and FF will be fighting for the last seat and I think Eamon Ryan will take it with by having name recognition.  

 Verdict: 3FG 1 Lab 1 Green

Dublin South East

	Chris Andrews				6,600		19.50%		0.98		3		Made Quota		1
	Lucinda Creighton				6,311		18.65%		0.93		5		Made Quota		2
*	Ruairi Quinn				5,636		16.65%		0.83		5		Made Quota		3
*	John Gormley2				4,685		13.84%		0.69		5		Elected		4
*	Michael McDowell				4,450		13.15%		0.66		(5)		Not Elected
	Jim O’Callaghan				3,120		9.22%		0.46		(4)		Eliminated

This was legendary last time out, Gormley and McDowell face to face up poll to up poll.The rumble in Ranelagh

With Rumours of McDowell returning could we have a re-run? That would be great TV. Either way I think Gormley is in trouble. I think if McDowell returns or FG run a second candidate that vote is going to run towards him/her and Gormley is going to be found wanting. He might end up in a scrap with Chris Andrews. But I think Fianna Fail can keep it. 

Verdict: 2FG 1 Lab 1FF

Dublin South Central

Candidate			Party		1st Pref		Share		Quota		Count		Status		Seat
*	Sean Ardagh				8,286		17.43%		1.05		1		Made Quota		1
*	Michael Mulcahy				7,439		15.65%		0.94		3		Made Quota		2
*	Mary Upton				5,987		12.60%		0.76		9		Made Quota		3
	Catherine Byrne2				4,713		9.92%		0.59		10		Elected		4
*	Aengus O Snodaigh				4,825		10.15%		0.61		10		Elected		5
	Eric Byrne				4,054		8.53%		0.51		(10)		Not Elected
	Tony McDermott				2,756		5.80%		0.35		(8)		Eliminated

This is a seat that Labour have been after for a while. They had high hopes of it last year and lost it by 69 votes. They are unlikely to lose out this time. But where last time out they looked to take the seat off Sinn Fein now they are going to be chasing Fianna Fail. In 2002 Gay Mitchell topped the poll but having lost to Enda in the FG leadership election he decided to go off to Europe. Back then the Fianna Fail vote needed transfers to put them in. Now they will be down and transferphobic. I am sure FG  would not mind having Mitchell back and challenge for 2 seats. But I am not sure he would come back. Which is good news for Labour because I think they will squeeze the last seat away from Fianna Fail.

Verdict: 2 Lab 1 SF 1FG 1 FF

Fine Gael on 65 (+15)

Fianna Fail on 38 (-29)

Labour 22 (+7)

Sinn Fein 7 (+2)

Ind 5 (+3)

Greens 3 (0)

Socialists 1 (+1)

The only drawback to the Luas is that it has proved so successful. People living on either line have to be up very early in order to be sure to get a spot on the trams, as they are so small. Simon over at Tuppenceworth posted on this a while back in the context of the election.

In the current climate of constrained spending however the deal-clincher might well be that it is projected the E line would fall short of covering costs by E2 million a year. To me that sum appears to fall within the remit of government to cover in order to lower congestion and provide better public transport – the room for bus lanes on many of those roads is limited at best.

It is not all sweetness and light though, looking at the map attached, its clear that you are building quite close to the existing Luas, considering the amount of houses on the northside of the city, considerably more built up thanks to the construction boom, there is a fair argument that the southside is getting a lot of the goodies. Anyway this is all a moot point if the project doesn’t go ahead so have a look at the document and have your say.

Dublin South Central’s Eric Bryne lost out in the end by 68 votes to Sinn Fein. It is hard to know where these 68 votes came from as the local conditions that resulted in this probably are very minute. However I suggest that Sinn Fein may have got their vote out better then Labour. He did well when the Green Party candidate got eliminated. Also it is mainly a problem with vote management. Labour got 21.2% of the vote compared to Sinn Fein’s 10.2%. This should have meant they could have taken 2 seats. With Mary Upton topping the poll the Labour votes were there. Eric just needed 69 of hers. Seat one lost by poor management.

In Cork South Central Dan Boyle Green Party finance spokesman lost out by about 2,000 votes which is quiet a large amount. Clearly being that far behind it is hard to blame vote management. But his first preference dropped only by 7 votes. The problem was that last time out he gained from transfers from eliminated Labour and Fine Gael candidates. WHo this time took seats. This is not one of the seats the opposition lost.

Labour/Fine Gael and Green’s did not lose seats to Fianna Fail/PD they lost seats to each other. Where Fianna Fail gained seats to compensate for the ones they lost were at the expense of independents.

In South Tipperary Fianna Fail took the seat from Seamus Healy by about 60 votes. Seamus Healy was a left wing independent and from Clonmel. Labour’s candidate was Phil Prendergast Mayor of Clonmel. Who was eliminated on the 4th count with just under 4000 votes. If she had not run could Seamus Healy have gained 60 local votes. He got about 1,100 transfers from her while Martin Mansearh got about 100. I think if she had not run he would have had enough to deny Fianna Fail a seat. Whether he would have supported the opposition or not is not certain but it certain is more likely then Martin Manserah.

In Louth Mairead McGuinness lost out to Sinn Fein’s Arthur Morgan by about 1,100 votes. The problem here was the Labour candidate and green candidate. Between them they had enough for 2 seats but only took 1. One of the problems was that the Labour candidate sent most of the transfers into Fergus O’ Dowd. But I think the biggest fault was that the Greens had no pact with Fine Gael. The Green candidate has a greater share of votes into Sinn Fein then Mairead McGuinness if the pact was stronger. Then perhaps Mairead would have got enough to put her over the line.

Cost of seat 2 no green pact.

More later.

Right now papers are being re-checked to make sure that none of Eric’s votes went to Catherine by mistake, since they both have the same surname. There’s talk that Labour will be calling for a full recount.

It’s second time unlucky for Byrne, who lost out in 1997 to FF’s Ben Briscoe by a similarly small number of votes. He’s written probably the single best blog by any candidate throughout the campaign