(Thanks to Conor for providing a graphic of my figures).

Excellent work by our authorities. Anyone else get more than one vote? (And plan on casting them?)

Email pics (I promise to do blurring of details if you cannot) to irishelection (at) gmail.com

I embedded the economy one below, I am interested to know what people think.

He has clearly struggled to talk directly to people, primarily because his tenor and language have been impenetrable. This is a clear effort to go over the heads of the media and directly to people – has it worked?

He has the right posture, straight into camera delivering full answers but it is worryingly similar to the detached civil-servant langugage we have become used to. Cowen is clearly a work in progress on that level. For the first part of the video below he has to find a voice, only toward the end does he come to answer questions – maybe pracitce will make perfect.

Edit to add: Another email from our dear friend. At least they got the url right this time, though it is still very clunky – who decided the popular questions? Would be nice to see and vote on the questions a-la change.gov, lots of short sentences but no call to action as yet, simply watch a video. Wonder if the forthcoming election spend reform will make reference to online.

Dear friend,

Brian Cowen answers your questionsOver the last two weeks, people from all over the country have been submitting their questions for me through the new Fianna Fáil website. I received over a thousand questions on a vast number of topics. Given the overwhelming number you submitted, I’ve only been able to answer a selection of the most popular questions. I’d like to thank each of you for putting these questions to me.

Most questions concerned the global economic crisis that faces Ireland. I want to share my answers with you so you can best understand how I and my Government intend to lead Ireland out of these difficult times.

Watch my answers here:

http://www.fiannafail.ie/thetaoiseachanswers

I answered questions about our banking system and the limits that the Government is going to place on bankers’ pay and bonuses. I listened and responded to your legitimate concerns about the pension levy we’ve been forced to impose for the good of the country’s finances. I hear the call for the country to pull together in difficult times and ask our political opponents to contribute their best ideas for the good of Ireland and its people. We have to work tirelessly – together.

Take a few minutes to watch my answers to your questions:

http://www.fiannafail.ie/thetaoiseachanswers

I want to lead Ireland out of this recession into a new type of economy – smarter, flexible and more diverse. I’ve got a plan for the next five years that will create new knowledge-based jobs and industries, intensify research and development and make our country the best possible place to start a new business.

I’m optimistic about Ireland’s future. I believe in the ability of the Irish people to work hard and to show our inherent ingenuity to bring us out of this economic crisis. Things will not get better straight away, but over the coming months and years, they will. We need to prepare for and work towards recovery.

I ask you to join me in standing up for Ireland’s future.

Brian Cowen
Taoiseach

MINISTER FOR Transport Noel Dempsey has sharply criticised those who were involved in wrongdoing in Anglo Irish Bank, accusing them of engaging in “economic treason”.

Mr Dempsey said he and his Cabinet colleagues wanted to see the people responsible “pay a price”.

“I have heard a huge amount of nonsense about why people are not in jail. You have to collect the evidence; it has to be investigated thoroughly and I and my colleagues want to see the people responsible [pay] for that,” he said.

Either way, the government are steadfast in their refusal to publish names for ‘legal reasons’, taking political blow after political blow and watching legitimacy sapped by the duality of public sector marches and complete loss of confidence in the private sector at government’s ability to direct the economy in the wider public interest.

Cowen and his top Ministers Lenihan and Coughlan have taken a hammering for the appearance of covering the Anglo 10. This may or may not be justified, the Ministers certainly feel aggrieved at the description from the opposition benches but Noel Dempsey has been far more trenchant when asked about the topic. He wants them nailed, wants them named and wants to move on.

He is saying what people want to hear from government but the question is whether he has the backing of government to do it or whether he is positioning himself in the event of Cowen’s authority completely sapping away. There has been some debate over on Cedar Lounge about the likelihood of an election and, like Michael Taft, I think that sheer historical force may have drawn this term in power close to an end. If that moment has not yet occured it is hard to see it not happening in the coming weeks.

The Anglo ’10′ has proved to be a distraction from the budgetary crisis that will see them try to find upwards of €12bn in the next four years. The mandate that was given in May 2007 has all but disappeared. Brian Lucey is on the money however when he said on Saturday:

Brian Lucey, professor of finance in Trinity College, said it was important to remember the policies that have caused the current crisis were created by a Government for which 44 per cent of the electorate voted.

“Part of me says those 44 per cent should take the burden now. The problem is what we voted for, not the Galway tent. We voted for these policies.”

He said from a banking perspective, the reality was we now paid on average twice as much as the Dutch and Germans for our macro-economic debt.

“That’s the price of our national profligacy.” He said it was “worrying” the lack of basic economic knowledge among Government Ministers he had met.

“I think the Government is trying but they are at sea. They keep coming out with less and less credible policies. We need vicious policies now and we’re not getting them. The international markets don’t believe the Irish State. I am convinced the Department of Finance does not understand international bond markets.”

Ley us know if any of these are good value – the full doc of sports and celeb bets is here (apologies it is a docx file – I will PDF it the morning if someone doesnt beat me to it).

Politics

Lisbon Treaty Second Referendum Result:

Yes  4/6   No  Evens

European Elections 2009

Who will win more seats Fine Gael or Fianna Fail?

FG  4/5  FF  2/1

Same number of seats each    11/8

Labour party to win two seats or more  5/1

Sinn Fein to win two seats or more   2/1

The Green party to win a seat  10/1

Libertas to win a seat    9/4

Local Elections 2009

Who will win more seats fine Gael or Fianna Fail?

(Total number of County Councillors plus City Borough Councillors)

FG 4/6   FF Evens

The Year of the next General Election

2009   7/4   2010   7/4

2011   11/4   2012   5/1

Next Taoiseach

Brian Cowen   11/10  Enda Kenny   8/13

Next Government

F G/ Labour (alone)  6/4  FG/Labour/Green  7/4

FF/Labour     3/1  FF/Green   8/1

FF/Sinn Fein   8/1  FF Minority or Majority 12/1

(Others on request)

To lead Fine Gael into next election

1/5  Enda Kenny  3/1  Richard Bruton  Bar 14/1

Mary Harney to be Minister for Health 1^st January 2010    4/1

The Green Party to leave Government in 2009    7/4

The next Irish President:

Bertie Ahern  5/2  Brian Crowley  7/2

Mairead McGuinness 8/1   John Bruton  10/1

Eamonn Ryan  20/1  Gerry Adams  25/1

(others on request)

UK general election – next prime minister

Gordon Brown  9/4 David Cameron 2/5

Next Labour Leader

David Milliband 2/1 Harriet Harmon  7/2 Bar 6/1

Special Irish Bets

Obama to visit Ireland 2009       2/1

Ireland to win the Eurovision 2009       25/1

Dunnes Stores to be sold in 2009       7/4

Ryanair to take over Aer Lingus in 2009     7/4

Denis O’Brien to take over Independent Newspapers Group in 2009 9/4

Other thanks to Philippe and Ruth for their work over at the EU and to Niall for his invaluvable technological help. It was great to get everyone together in the one room and if you haven’t seem Damian’s presentation already you really must take a quick look. The video to go with it will be up in the week ahead.

The immediate aftermath left me dizzy with ideas but two things stood out – the first was the easy with which you can convert interested people/readers into active people. The second was Zack and Richard‘s assertion that blogs and social media would benefit from being more vocal and more honest in what they felt. Hammer at what you want and want more and more things. “Yes, but would it work here?” was the agonising response from Irish attendees.

Perhaps or perphaps not but in discussion with Suzy later on (thanks for the great contribution btw) it was clear we could answer these questions in relation to the Local and European Elections.What should we be thinking of doing and where should we try to take the site in the next 12 months?

Six months on, it seems fairly clear that the impact of the web on the 2007 General Election campaign was minimal at best. Much was made in advance of May 2007 about the potential impact of the blogs (I remember the enthusiasm of the blogging the election conference), social networking and online forums but these would appear to have been based more on envious eyes cast west than anything else. In the end, the traditional means remained the dominant aspects of the election.

This is not to contradict per se the view articulated in How Ireland Voted 2007*, that this election was “the first time in Irish politics when the internet and the new media played such an important role both for the media and for the parties and the candidates.” Certainly the likes of RTE did solid work in bringing their content online, and this was picked up by internet users – but it was still the traditional means, albeit in another guise. But when it came to blogs, social networking and politicians’ own websites, it was largely a case of trees falling in the forest, and in the where there were large numbers of viewers it was the converted arguing with the converted – essentially trees listening to other trees falling.

Based on impressions at the time, and in the subsequent commentary it would appear that online citizens, either through their own blogs, through social networking failed to substantially register as a factor during the campaign – except, possibly, amongst the already politically committed. Take a look at politics.ie, by far and away the most influential of all political content online which is derived from online citizens. It is political hacks fighting between each other, good for the odd bit of gossip and a scrap, but with little evidence that it is engaging with those outside the politically committed sphere. The topics under discussion (on blogs and on internet forums) were largely those of interest to the political obsessives like your author, were almost exclusively of a national hue, and were almost exclusively reactionary – essentially a more hyper-active version of the existing national media. And to be honest the offerings were, in the main little more than what people were getting in the traditional media.

Where there is serious potential value, it is in the potential of influencing opinion-makers who have larger and more varied or influential audiences, and having an impact in that manner. That has not really emerged as of yet – or at least not to any obvious extent – but then how does one measure that? (such a discussion has popped up on Slugger following from one elsewhere), but that is probably where the real potential is for Irish political blogging.

The on-line efforts of the political parties and their candidates is harder to appreciate, but it would appear to be fairly minimal. Following previous research, and from personal experience of canvassing, while some people will look at the party websites for information, those individuals are generally people who have made substantially made up their minds already. The same can be largely said to be true of candidate’s individual websites with there be little evidence to associate between good election performances and online presence.

With regard to blogging only a few politicians engaged with and the impact was probably of a magnitude to suggest that it won’t be taken up by huge numbers in the immediate future. In the same article in How Ireland Voted 2007, Ciaran Cuffe is noted as “one of the most prominent and extensive users of the new technologies”, certainly true, while another established blogger who is also a politician would be Dominic Hannigan. Both candidates attracted good coverage online, as well as some local and national media off the back of their blogging – and in fairness, both are worth reading. But, it is hard to see in what way that their blogging contributed to their ultimate electoral performance – looking through their comments, it is rare to see evidence of the uncommitted floating voter. While blogging is possibly a positive tool allowing politicians to engage with the public at large, as a tool for the vast majority of politicians in the context of elections it can be said with a fair amount of certaintity, that today it is of little value.

Unlike in the US, Ciaran Cuffe or Dominic Hannigan’s desire to engage with voters at large is quite limited in the context of our parochial elections – and within that it is useful to remember Sean Lemass’s statement that the next election starts when the last count finished. While I am sure it is gratifying for Deputy Cuffe to have readers from all over the country, unless their voters in Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown is it really worth the hassle? Quite probably Deputy Cuffe will say it is, but for most other politicians? Doubtful, in at the current stage of online development where the tools allowing politicians to focus on a particular areas are relatively limited as of yet, and there is an absence of strong regional online communities. From that perspective, a rational politician who is not operating at a national level is unlikely to derive much benefit from blogging, or a particularly slick website. However, a frontbench spokesperson may well see the advantage of it as a tool for selling a message to the nation, as indeed will the parties themselves as corporate bodies as against individual efforts from individual politicians.

For non-national candidates social networking is certainly more promising in an Irish context. It provides an online equivalent of canvassing, and is certainly a means for politicians to put their name in front of potential voters as a friend of a friend. In a state were personal factors certainly play a role in voting choices there would appear to be value in it, and its was used by some candidates (most seeming to be from Fine Gael – in comparison Labour, went down the blogging route in a much more organised fashion) during the election. Indeed, I did come across one voter who knew the candidate I was canvassing for off the back of a Bebo site. But are people’s voting intentions really that fickle? Anyway, it has the advantage of an easier ability to target voters through networks and the like, and is probably the most likely tool which will be developed by local politicians in the immediate future.

Possibly with greater integration of online content (and of course some will argue it is already here), it will become easier for politicians to target particular local audiences and as such there will be greater online engagement. But it must be remembered that with our current political system, beyond the party nationally and the main spokespeople, the value of on-line participation will only really come with the development of more localised networks – essentially, with the development the online equivalent of local radio and newspapers.

Going forward, the most productive use of online content from politicians is likely to be at party levels, while individual websites and blogs (outside of the spokespersons, ministers and party leaders) are likely to be of limited value and probably not worth the time put into them. But that is not to say that the internet is largely an irrelevant tool to those who are seeking to influence people’s political choices. In the context of elections, it probably is, but in the forthcoming referenda – in particular the Reform Treaty – it may well be a force.

Why? The dynamics of the referenda are much different to the general election. Unlike in the election, door-to-door and supermarket canvassing, extensive and repeated leafleting are unlikely to be a substantial feature. Chances are no-one will knock on your door for a yes vote, and you wouldn’t get multiple visitors. And chances are, that most people won’t really care, a la Nice. In such a context, where there is a clear choice being articulated across the country on a particular subject – you can vote yes or no – and there amongst the general public the number of undecideds (many of whom will be politically engaged) will be massive when compared to the numbers being scrapped over in the general election.

Within that context, the potential for focused online campaigning is far greater than in an election. Whereas in the election people are being snowed under with messages from a wide variety of sources, and what is offered on-line is largely replication of what is within the traditional media (comment about reported news-stories), or is pushed through the door-box. In the forthcoming campaign, the media focus will be lesser, the issues will be lightly treated in the press and those voters seeking information source of information are more likely to be online than anywhere else considering that they won’t be too freely available in the traditional media – and certainly that is the tone set by Dick Roche in the Irish Times last week where he states the intention is to publish the White Paper online in first instance. The first part of the no-campaign to surface above the water, Libertas would appear to be largely a web focused effort.

Focused online campaigning has the possibility of influencing directly on voters who are more susceptible to opinions being offered online – as those opinions will have greater space to be played out in. But, there will need to be greater focus. There is simply too much unfocused political blogging, too many voices competing in a mad fashion, and far too often too much effort required to uncover the gems which are out there. With the referenda there will need to be aggregators bringing together bloggers from certain perspectives, rather than seeking to cover all angles or none at all. In tandem with this, Politics.ie is ideally placed to be a particularly important clearing house for debate on the Treaty, unfortunately the association with its editor and the Libertas grouping is potentially (but hopefully not) damaging to the sites credibility in this regard.

Similarly, with social networking as the potential for groups of friends to be influenced in a decision which may be viewed as less set or certain than in a general election. There is also the scope for online co-operation between various activists which the likes of Facebook is ideal to facilitate. Political parties have not really bothered with recruitment online to the same extent elsewhere, largely because political recruits will in the main come from canvassing, social contacts, or people who get involved in the local organisation. In contrast, in the forthcoming referendum, as in Nice II, there will be new organisations which will draw activists from a number of sources. These organisations to be successful will need to draw on more than extended existing networks and online recruitment should be a serious issue for these groups.

There is potential in the forthcoming referendum for a significant online impact, but only if there is particular effort put into focusing the output in a partisan and national manner. In campaigns like this, amongst leading politicians during general, local and European elections there is potential within blogs for political parties in selling their message, where such a message is sought to be delivered at a national level. In conjunction with this, social networking potentially offers rewards at the grass-roots levels How it all pans out is anyone’s guess, but the potential is there. In the end, its up to the likes of ourselves to do something about it.

*The Media and the Campaign – Heiz Brandenburg and Zbyszek Zalinski pages 167-186

This is a slightly amended version of a piece posted at my own site, Semper Idem.

I hope this is not the case with the current government but it is difficult to tell. Two stories that hit the media today make me wonder. The first is a report that Ciarán Cuffe TD said that the Green Party would not support the EU Reform Treaty unless the Government also supported the Charter of Fundamental Rights. Although Bertie Ahern has commented positively on the matter at the ICTU (Irish Congress of Trades Unions) conference yesterday this wasn’t sufficient for the party. Cian has dealt with this further here. A later clarification that – yes, FF would support the Charter in full went some way to defusing the argument. Still. Optics? Bad timing? Miscalculation? Storm in a tea cup? Who can tell? It’s early days for the Green Party to be coming out with such statements, although no better man than Ciarán Cuffe to act as a sort of auxiliary conscience of the party (and I’m not being pejorative when I say that, he is someone I have considerable time for).

More serious is a report about the Senate Elections…Now here is a can of worms and no mistake. The Green Party cohort of councillors is less than pleased about instructions that in the upcoming Elections their votes should be ‘supervised’ by the party in order to ensure that they vote for ‘designated’ Fianna Fáil candidates. This appears, but again who knows, to be some sort of quid pro quo for the rapid (and again I’m pleased with this) return of Dan Boyle and A.N.Other as Green Party Senators selected by An Taoiseach to the Senate.

Problem with this sort of approach to rigid coalition discipline was that it conflicts with the secrecy of the ballot and as an Oireachtas spokeswoman noted “it was illegal for anybody to tamper with it”.

Keeping the story running was Bronwen Maher, Green Party councillor who said:

she had been told that she would receive instructions from her party to vote for five or six named Fianna Fáil Seanad candidates.

“We were also told that the ballot papers would be inspected by a senior party official to make sure we voted the right way so that the Green Party could verify to Fianna Fáil that we had delivered on the deal,” said Ms Maher.

Perhaps people are waking up to the ramifications of coalition. For she noted:

that when the Green Party members voted to go into government with Fianna Fáil they were told they would get two Seanad seats but they were not told what they would have to do to get them.

Indeed!

Flynn: ‘I never believed I did anything wrong’

Insight into the people of Mayo’s strange dependence on the Flynn can be found in the following film.

Fianna Fail are still in charge but Fine Gael’s muscles have gotten some electoral steroids. How hard will they punch? Not very, probably. It won’t be the same but it will.

One key difference, and one that we in Dublin West hope to benefit from, is the appointment of Brian Lenihan to Minister for Justice, Equality and Law reform. This blog is of the view that Michael McDowell was a man of merit as well as flaw; the most obvious being his tendency to hide his merits behind his flawed whoring of himself for publicity.

Lenihan is different. Expect a lower profile and at least the same level of progressive reform. He faces many challenges. The criminal justice system is a mess that currently jails twice as many people from the Irish underclass than our British counterparts.

Research shows that Irish crime is embedded in certain areas. Lenihan won’t have to go far to find them. His own constituency, Dublin West – Dublin 15 – is a great microcosm of suburban Ireland; a clear and growing divide between the gated, well trimmed gardens of Castleknock and the fenced and unkempt patches of Corduff, Sheepmoor, Mountview and Ladyswell.

This is one of the great challenges facing Lenihan and this government – how to reduce criminality and make these places nicer to live in. How to end the intimidation, rampant drug abuse and utter disdain for community responsibilty. Of course this can’t be done by the justice ministery alone – support will be needed from Health, Education and Employment. Do it right and crush the ganglands.

The other major point this blog will judge Lenihan on is prison. Obviously there are problems regarding smuggling things into prisons. It’s hard to see what harm a bloody budgie does but phones have to be a no-no. A blocking system will solve that. However he must resist calls by the showboating, vacuous tough on crime lobby to Lock Down prisons. One of the merits of the Irish system is the relative harmony between officers and prisoners; this is largely achieved by letting them mix freely. An end to this policy would sharpen the divide and make prisons more dangerous to live and work in.

Furthermore on the subject of prisons, urgent reform of child prisons like St Patrick’s is needed. The place is an abject failure that does nothing but teaches wild kids how to become wild adults. It is a disastorous institution, despite the efforts of staff; it has been undermined by a scandalous lack of funding from McDowell and John O’Donoghue before him. Shame on them for their ignorance. In fairness to Lenihan he set up a committee to assess the needs of Oberstown and Trinity House when he was Minister for Children. So the omens are good even if the history of the justice department is a history of injustice.

Adult prisons are also desperately in need of funding. Contrary to popular opinion, prisons are not home to lazy and depraved party animals who get fucked on cheap cider and slouch in front of plasma televisions. It is an indignity of the smelliest and lowest order to have to poo in a bucket and throw it down a drain. More education and drug rehab schemes are needed. Prison is often the first place people can get help to read and write; or get help to get off heroin. With this they have a chance of getting a job on release – without it they haven’t got a hope.

So hopefully Lenihan will at least try and sort some of these problmes out. Prisons should not be social dustbins. Put criminals in them, not messers, not the homeless or the mentally ill. I wish him sincere congratulations and good luck in his new post.