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The One with Everything to Lose
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Almost two weeks ago, Enda Kenny was sent a hospital pass by Micheal Martin. In an effort to show initiative, buy a day or two and maybe give the troops a rally, Martin proposed about as many debates as there were days in the campaign.
Eamon Gilmore took up the challenge, claiming it was his idea all along, Kenny decided that any three way debate won’t happen. Whomever thought it was a good idea to do this at the time cannot appear to think it now. After the issue gave succour to Fianna Fail activists for the weekend, today Kenny came out to again refuse to go to TV3 despite the offer on the table of Browne stepping aside.
Today Enda claimed the empty chair is a ‘symbol’ to those who have emigrated (watch unembeddable video here). It is cringe-inducing viewing.
However I am in two minds as to exactly how this ends up playing out.
One side argues that Enda has everything to lose, as Noel Whelan argues today – he is home and hosed already. We are flat-line in polls across the major parties. There is no emerging trend. Despite bad media performances, he has his party on the cusp of a majority and on the road to lead the next government. If he does debate, he has it all to lose. So he is right to avoid and delay and simply continue doing what he has done. Statements like today’s will be forgotten, people will talk about policies and debates won’t matter.
But the other side of me wonders just how the image of an empty space where the leader of Ireland’s soon-to-be largest party should be will play with the electorate. This week we got a lot of heat, lots of cross-shouting and not a whole amount of light. On the doors, the debate will give canvassers and voters talking points. They will give perspectives and they will provide information. They should at an early stage help engagement with the issues.
Debates don’t tend to sway opinion – the reinforce them. One in which the next Taoiseach has chosen not to take part, is pretty new.
For Kenny to miss a formative moment like that in an election cannot be a good thing for him. I cannot predict if or how it will have an impact on voters minds. I can predict that it will give plenty of ammo to the other parties to fire in Enda’s direction.
To have turned a hospital pass where he couldn’t win, into an issue that has dogged almost two weeks of election coverage is a gross miscalculation. I can no longer believe this is coming from FG handlers. Looking at Noonan’s face in the above video, I am made more certain of that feeling.
FG on the cusp of a majority? Shurely shome mishtake! Leading party maybe, on share of first prefs and seats, but majority? – not indicated by the polls.
Cian,
Good post. The election hasn’t taken off yet. Hence, this absurd conentration on personality trivia. Maybe the whole thing will never ignite at all around an issue on which the parties have to make themselves accountable to the public? That would make Election 2011 unusual, since at some stage in all recent previous contests some ‘lightning rod’ issues emerged around which public opinion coalesced or became rapidly polarised affecting voting intentions in the real poll. That hasn’t happened yet. But still, about three weeks yet to go.
The fact that Fianna Fail have nothing to say is robbing the opposition ‘government in waiting’ parties of a natural target. Instead, we’ve seen Michael Noonan floundering over figures and Eamon Gilmore extending Labour’s ‘blame game’ negativity to the EU, with each of the likely government partners being forced to devour one another in media debates as FF adopts an ‘innocent bystander’ role as if they had suddenly been transmogrified from the villains of the piece to the Good
Samaritans of Irish politics.
Not much use or help to anyone, that. The real stars of this election, by default, are the media players. Vincent Browne is having the time of his life. He doesn’t deserve that. As a country and a people, we surely deserve better than to allow that to happen?
@Humble Chestnut Roaster: Agreed they are leading in the polls but 40%-45% could get them there. I would consider that cusp (with a poll at 37% and 35% this week) should things go their way in the next 3 weeks.
@Veronica As a country and a people, we surely deserve better than to allow that to happen?
I think Enda’s behaviour will begin to hurt FG on Tuesday, image is far harder to erase than words (e.g. radio). If Cowen ducked like this he would be pilloried.
FFs offer to support a minority FG govenment seems significant. I would be expected to say that FF is playing a very clever game here, but it’s true.
I feel the Labour Party, with its stated expectation of 50+ seats, will be the big loser of GE11.
We may be in slo-mo car crash territory by polling day. I believe FG and FF will be the largest parties, and yes, FG may have enough to govern alone, with or without FF support.