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Tomorrow’s Irish Indo has a Millward Browne Poll. Numbers:
FF 16%, FG 30%, LAB 24%, GP 1%, SF 13%, OTH 15%.
Over on politicalreform.ie Adrian Kavanagh has extrapolated to seats. Read the whole thing here.
Headline numbers:
Fianna Fail 23, Fine Gael 64, Labour 45, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 14, Others 20
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Im wondering what the point of this election is for me.
Apart from the the horrendous super slow-mo car crash that is an Irish election, and the apparently inexorable conclusion that Inda will be our next Taoiseach, i have other concerns.
Namely i cannot vote!! The mere fact that i live outside the country has demoted me to an alien of it. And the irony is that i cannot come home because of the present government’s poor performance has denueded the country of job opportunities for professionals. I simply cannot understand why there is abolutely no provision for citizens of Ireland being being able to vote abroad at a registered embassy.
What happened to the glorious Irish diaspora famed in Mary Robinson Presidential speech that instilled pride in Irish achievements abroad? If we are proud of these, why do we disenfranchise those who carry them out? I find it bizzare that in most democracies this most basic right is given to their citizens, but in Ireland we cannot recognise the value of a broader perspective.
I cant help but think that this is part of a wider issue for Ireland. How much better off would we be if we looked beyond the narrow focus of our electoral boundaries?
Cian,
The RED C Poll for Paddy Powers this morning present a different trend:
FF 18%, FG 37%, LAB 19%, GP 3%, SF 12%, OTH 11%.
Adrian Kavanagh’s model produces seat projections of FF 32; FG 75, Labour 31; Greens 0; SF 13 and Independents 15. The usual caveats apply to his extrapolation of the poll numbers.
The trend in the Red C polls will be heartening for FG, especially if they’re replicated in the IPSOS MRBI Irish Times first poll of the election to come. Good news for FF too; in that they may not be completely obliterated on February 25th, though there’s a long way to go yet. Bad news for Labour who are now showing a steady decline, with serious implications for the ‘two candidate’ strategy in certain Dublin constituencies if the slide continues. It’s all good for Sinn Fein too; thus far. But it appears the best thing to be in this election may be an Independent.
@Trevor: there should be no taxation without representation. If that’s right, so is the inverse; no representation without taxation.
US citizens get to vote from abroad because they have to pay tax on all income made abroad – in theory, at least.
http://www.taxmeless.com/page4.html
The manipulation of the electorate is in full swing with an opinion poll every day to show us that we are wasting our time voting for anyone but the main parties with puundits even telling how many seats each will get. Nothing has changed.
Seems like there is the beginning of a late surge from FF