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Election 2011: Take your pick, Fine Gael – Large majority Coalition with Labour or wafer- thin single party government on your own.
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What’s best for the country? A two party government that commands the allegiance of 120 deputies, or a single-party led government supported by a small number of independents with a tight majority just north of 83 deputies?
On the polls going into this election that may well turn out to be the scale of difference between a Fine Gael-Labour coalition or a minority Fine Gael government supported by like-minded Independents on banking, fiscal and economic policies.
Governments with overwhelming majorities are not necessarily any more stable than the minority alternative. History shows that governments clinging on to a Dail majority by their fingernails, oddly enough, tend to do better on the economic front than those with large parliamentary majorities at their command. The example of the 1987-89 Haughey administration is illustrative of how effective tiny majority governments may be in introducing the right policies for the country; as is the shortlived Fitzgerald Fine Gael Labour coalition of 1980-81.
In contrast, governments with huge majorities, as in the disastrous Lynch Fianna Fail government elected in 1977, which took a wrecking ball to the Irish economy, may not serve the country well. The ill-fated Fianna Fail – Labour coalition in 1992, which commanded the loyalty of over 100 Dail deputies, was more successful in policy implementation, but its voting majority was not enough to save it from the lack of trust that existed at leadership level. Worse, a government with a large parliamentary majority is not only prey to indiscipline and cabals of dissension forming within its own ranks, it also weakens the capacity of the opposition to call it to account. If we’ve learned anything from the past decade, it is that a weak parliament does no favours to the country.
Unless we get political reform, the Dail will remain weak, with the executive continuing to exercise complete dominance. Would a Fine Gael/Labour coalition, with a Dail majority of twenty or thirty votes, be more inclined to dilute the absolute power of the executive, or content to keep things rolling along as they do at present, making life much easier for themselves? You can take your pick on that one. Indeed, the Labour leader’s warning that Fine Gael needs the moderating hand of his party in government to curb their worst excesses curiously implies no confidence, or indeed no commitment, to any plans to strengthen the role of the Dail in making the government of the day accountable.
Another canard is the ‘five year term’: that we need a government that will last the full five years. No, we don’t. Political stability is not synonymous with a full five year term in office for any government. It has more to do with good government. With an executive that listens to and responds to constructive criticism and ideas coming from non-government parties, rather than a guarantee to the incumbents that they will have the privileges and trappings of power for the next five years and can ride roughshod over their own backbenchers, the opposition, the media and by extension the rest of us, with impunity.
A government with a massive majority might serve the interests of the people worse than a government that had to continually demonstrate its entitlement to govern and be open and accountable in its decisions. Fianna Fail, or its leader at least, has had a lot to say during this campaign about ‘new politics’ and changing the way politicians do their business in the Dail. If this election results in the formation of a minority Fine Gael government, then this commitment is likely to be tested. But if Fianna Fail don’t live up to it, then arguably they make themselves vulnerable to more retribution from the electorate in a mid-term snap election.
As things stand, given the trends in the opinion polls and the stabilisation of party support suggested by this weekend’s polls as well as individual constituency factors I would hazard a guess that Fine Gael may win within the range of 75-80 seats, Labour 28 – 33; Fianna Fail 35 – 25; Sinn Fein 10-14; and others 17-21.
A Fine Gael result near the top of that seat range opens up the possibility of single party government with independent support. A lot will depend both on the scale of the Fianna Fail collapse and whether voters respond in the final days of the campaign to Labour’s message of ‘no’ to single party government. So how voters use their preferences after they have cast their number one vote will have a crucial bearing on what sort of government is formed on March 9th. Labour’s plea for a role in government is, in reality, a plea for Fine Gael voters to continue their preferences to their party candidates rather than independents or Fianna Fail or Sinn Fein. Given all that’s gone on during this campaign, it’s more that a bit shameless. If this latest Labour strategy to halt the seepage in their vote should fail, then it really will be up to Fine Gael to decide if they have the courage to risk government on their own and on the slimmest of majorities or whether they will opt for the safety in numbers that a coalition with Labour will confer.
The lesson of Fianna Fail’s collapse and even possible wipeout as a political force should serve as a lesson to Labour and Fine Gael. Irish voters might get to relish the idea of kicking the bejaysus out of parties that lose the run of themselves in government or that fail to deliver on popular expectations of resolution of our current economic problems and reform of a moribund political system. Whatever else, after this election there are no certainties left in Irish politics.
Veronica: “….. a minority Fine Gael government supported by like-minded Independents on banking, fiscal and economic policies.”
What about a minority Fine Gael government supported by Fianna Fail who are clearly like-minded on banking, fiscal and economic policies?
After all I heard Micheál Martin say recently (if I rememeber rightly) he would support a a minority Fine Gael government if they carried out Fianna Fail policy. And of course Fine Gael seem to be more Fianna Fail than Fianna Fail. Therefore all Fine Gael policy could be carried out without compromise.
So there you have it – the make-up of the next government and there also you have the reason why Eamon Gilmore is behaving like the jilted lover.
Eddie,
FF won’t vote for Enda Kenny as Taoiseach. If Labour are not part of a coalition deal they won’t either. Nor will Sinn Fein. So if FG don’t win 83 seats or more next Friday, we either get no new government voted in on March 9th or Fine Gael will have had to do a deal with a number of Independents to send Enda to the Park for his seal of office.
Where an FG government, so formed, will have to rely on FF support is when it comes to policies and financial motions where some of its Independent supporters may wobble. That’s also why Dail reform is vital, to allow Deputies of all parties to vote for measures that they believe are in the best interests of the country rather than being coralled by party whips into doing the opposite.
Governments are like banks – you may hate them but you do need them if society is to function. The Dail not being able to elect a government on March 9th next would, as I’ve argued elsewhere, be disastrous for the country’s interests, and not least the interests of those who depend on state services.
I think we are headed for some potentially dangerous territory. Notwithstanding the difficulties of managing a large majority, I believe that this country now needs a government with an unquestionable mandate and a robustness for the medium term at least. True, not all goverments that go the term are good ones, but one of the things we do need now is to establish a sense of stability and continuity. In my opinion no government depending on a handful of independents will be able to bring in any significant political reform. If there is one breed of TD for whom reform is anathema, it is the independent. Remember the dual mandate saga. Any meaningful political reform will have to address local government too – as well as the oireachtas. Whether longer sitting times or fewer TDs, none of this is likely to sit well with ‘career independents’. Given that political reform is, in my view, absolutely critical, I fear that a minority style government will be a bad idea. (And I simply don’t believe that FF will row in behind every significant decision because M Martin thinks it the ‘right thing for the country’).
On the other hand, the differences between FG and Labour are quite significant. On the approach to the deficit as well as on the attitude to semi-states. Plus, Labour’s desparate attempt to stem their decline in the campaign will not make negotiating for government any easier.
In short, I am not convinced that a minority FG government will be able to do what’s needed. Likewise, I believe that on this occassion, like that in the 80s, but not the easier ride of the mid 90s, Labour and FG will find it very difficult to work together effectively.
In both possible outcomes we face the prospect of a government not able or not willing to take terribly tough decisions in both the economic and political spheres.
Veronica: Why are you so sure that Fianna Fail won’t support Enda’s nomination for Taoiseach. After all Fianna Fail put through the finance bill as they were told to do so by Fine Gael. Not only that but Fine gael have adopted an uncompromising position on ultra right-wing policies, all of which should be anathema to labour but are clearly supported by Fianna Fail.
There was a time when any government of this country saw its mandate as protecting the poor against the the rich but we now see from the policies of both Fianna fail and Fine Geal that they are only too willing to protect the rich against the poor. Therefore I agree with Tomaltach on one point that Fine Gael and labour have come to a parting of the ways if Labour still want to pretend that they support the working class.
Just wanted to share this link for people who are feeling as bad as I am about Enda Kenny
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0UHKlDwUrE
Am I imagining it, or is this election all about personalities?
All I can see is far too many TD’s trying to get a piece of the action (big salaries; pensions & unvouched expenses and very little concern about taking action to revitalise the country; its citizens and its economy.
Surely 1 TD per 100K of adult population is more than adequate?
And how about a Cabinet of Six Ministers (Justice (including Defence); Finance: Natural Resources; Human Resources; and Communications? The sixth Minister would take the Chair and responsibility for Foreign Affairs.
Taxation is a shambles and needs simplification. A change from Corporation Tax to a Distributed Profits Tax (DPT) and consideration of a Consumption Tax (CT) to replace Income Tax, would remove many of the arguments about what is or what is not fair.
Property Tax is also convoluted. All land should be registered and all property constructed on such land should be attached to the folio in the Registry.
Land surplus to essential needs should be the subject of a revue for Capital Gains and all fallow land and empty property dealt with in like manner.
Consideration should be given to the construction of, at least, two Water Desalination Plants – for the creation of Wave Power; Potable water; Salt and possibly the harvesting of fish.
There is a possibility of a world shortage of food & water and Ireland is uniquely placed to take advantage of both these markets.
But it needs Ministers with vision; energy; ability and commitment.
Not the Prima Donnas that are offering themselves at the moment.
We need Sinn Fein in there now. They need to be given the chance to put forward equal rights for all citizens and stop the divisions between working and upper classes from getting worse. Right wing policies just don’t work and are failing all over the world when it comes to the ordinary person getting shafted by government policy which is supposed to protect its people. It’s about time we completely changed our ways of thinking and start looking after the ordinary majority and not the 10-15% on top. Let’s get it right this time folks. For once and for all!! Sinn fein have proved themselves dealing with the North very successfully and they want to apply the same in the South so why not give an already successful party a good chance to put things right for once. At least check out their website for information on what they want to implement.
All this FF, FG, SF, Labour discussion is pretty useless – compared to what I see in other European governments they are all excessively self seeking (the word corrupt is not far from my lips), incompetent and have been ruining the country in every way imaginable – pretty much all of them. The Irish infrastructure (roads, internet, public transport, utilities) is a mess that is falling apart and absurdly expensive. The service level of almost every government organisation to its citizens is depressing. The health service is medieval. Maybe somebody out there knows what they do with all the money they rake in – their only real talent seems to be in throwing it away. The only real hope for Ireland was a 100% vote for the IMF with a remit to close down the Dail, make all the TD’s redundant without compensation and to start again from scratch.
Good luck to you all – you deserve better – but this sham of an election isn’t going to change anything.
Have to agree with John.
The prospect of 14 IRA/Sinn Fein & their bizarre policies is terrifying.