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State of Chassis
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Green Party, Laoighis-Offaly 
It’s going to be a long week. Presumably we all know by now that Brian Cowen has reversed his position of one week ago that the positions of Taoiseach and party leader should not be separated and has resigned as leader of Fianna Fail.
As earlier posts have noted, he has never had a good sense of separation between the two roles and as Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin pointed out, the critical sentence was delivered as Gaeilge — “a united organisation is the most important thing”. So much for the Country First tone of a week ago. Also to note at this stage, there is apparently a second bill that the government intends to pass before the election, there was a reference to the “NAMA amendment bill” which is the first I’d heard*. Finally (for now), the FF leadership battle will pit several of the 7 FF Cabinet members against each other — a Cabinet that is already perilously close to the constitutional limit 7 and challenged in its constitutional requirement to operate as a collective.
Historical footnote: Richard Mulcahy as leader of FG served as Minister for Education in the interparty governments of the late 1940s and 1950s.
A Green Party quote to keep in mind –
A Green Party spokesman said last night that a general election was now only weeks away and the party’s TDs and Senators would consider the Labour motion on Tuesday. But Green Party sources described the Labour motion as a “stunt” and said if Eamon Gilmore was serious about an immediate election, he would have put down a motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach rather than the Government.
FG have now supplied the former.
*The NAMA amendment bill is in the announced legislative program with a possible typo in its description.
When the Greens called for the January election date last November, it soon became obvious that they’d overlooked the requirements to pass the Finance Bill and other finance legislation that is part and parcel of the IMF/EU bailout deal before any election is called and that end January was just too short a period of time to effect that legislation. From their perspective, staying on in government beyond the original January deadline provided an opportunity to get key elements of their own political agenda, such as the Climate Change and Dublin Mayoralty Bills and John Gormley’s legislation to block the Poolbeg incinerator, through the Oireacthas in tandem with the finance legislation. ‘Events’ have changed the picture though and it’s now quite clear that they can forget about finalising any of their favoured items before this Dail expires. As to how that may colour their attitude towards the FG and Labour motions next week remains to be seen.
If the Taosieach is forced by the ‘no confidence’ motions to fold the government’s tent on Wednesday or Thursday then it will fall to the incoming government after 11 March to implement the Finance and NAMA Bills and they will be up against a very tight deadline to achieve that. Either the government and main opposition leaders agree a mechanism to get the legislation completed before the Dail rises or else the next government will have to pass them immediately their new adminsitration is formed and without much time or opportunity to make any substantial changes to these measures.
Mansergh said on Radio 1 that he suspected Cowen was going to resign in November after the IMF/EU loan was announced, which in retrospect might have been better for everybody. I think you’re right that there seems to be little in it for the Greens at this stage and a sooner election might be better for them. But things are changing by the hour. I can’t see Brian Lenihan staying quiet for long.
In the meantime the level of personal debt is horrific (some self inflicted but much of it not) and some people think a change of govt will solve the problems but it won’t, the fiscal crisis and personal still has to be solved–a change of govt will just break the link with bankers , DoF, remaining developers, and other associated hangers on so that “we’ar all in this together” might mean something
Curious also today that an Taoiseach once more enunciated his theory of why, in my interpretation, the Constitution and its institutions should be subverted to imporove his Party’s electoral chances.
Neither the EU nor the IMF can prevent a dissolution, or determine the outcome of the forthcoming FG no confidence motion in an Taoiseach next week. However, it’s presumptious to suggest that the President will grant a dissolution for a March 11 election if asked – I don’t believe that she’s obliged to. And if the present Taoiseach loses the FG no confidence motion, I believe it is open to the Dáil to elect a new Taoiseach unless the President grants a dissolution on the advice of the Taoiseach.
Lastly, I feel the most significant political event of this past week – squeezed out of our consciousness by events at home – was José Manuel Barroso’s concise explanation, to Joe Higgins, of the homegrown causes of the Irish banking meltdown, including Irish supervisory failure.
Meeting tomorrow, the Greens are predicted to pull the plug on the government at which stage Micahel Noonan’s offer (on Six One News this evening) to fast-track the Finance Bill through the Dail next week comes into play. In which case, the election will be called on Friday next and, ironically, the wishes of all the boys and girls will have been granted. Or will they?
A government without the support of the people want to bring into law the greatest rip-off finance bill in our history and FG and Labour are only too willing to accommodate it before they get their Mercs and perks. GUBU doesn’t begin to describe it.
Mr Baroso was annoyed because Joe Higgins’ remarks reflect what many now know to be the truth.