You’re right, of course! 30 seats it was. Mea culpa. Gilmore has upped it to 48 now, though, as the surge in the polls has strengthened. I think there could be an interesting discussion around which of his predictions, 30 or 48, will turn out to be closest to the mark, and why.

http://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2007/08/31/setting-out-the-electoral-stall-eamon-gilmore-and-30-labour-seats/

Yes. The bigger the party, the bigger the seat bounce, so FF and FG tend to reap more benefit from this phenomenon of PR STV than Labour. The personal vote phenomenon also tends to be stronger in Labour (and other small parties) because of the ‘single candidate’ per constituency strategy. Not only do the voters come to identify the party locally with a particular personality, party loyalists and activists do as well. So when a long standing TD retires, much of the local organisation may disappear with him/her and a ‘new’ candidate coming in has to start building from scratch.

That is the reason why Labour has traditionally found it very difficult to retain seats, especially in rural constituencies, when its local stalwart retires. The single candidate strategy also prevents competition emerging from potential rivals within the constituency organisation. Less secure about their hold on their seats than big names in FG or FF, well established Labour representatives exercise a grip over their constituency organisations that would put the average feudal baron to shame. Of course it happens in the bigger parties too, but not quite to the same extent as in Labour. Also, when there’s a fair wind blowing for Labour nationally it tends to do very well in Dublin. Conversely, when the national profile is negative, as in 1997, their main seat losses are in urban areas.

On the basis of current opinion poll trends, Labour looks set to have a very good day out at the next election, particularly in Dublin where it could, on these figures, win two seats in ten of the twelve Dublin constituencies. Local organisation weaknesses and ‘quota squatting’ by incumbents may combine to prevent this; but the party that stands to lose most from a surge to Labour in Dublin is FG, which would make no seat gains in the capital as a result of it. If the autumn polls continue to favour a Labour surge, I think the question of the Fine Gael leadership will come onto the political radar screen again although it is probably too late for FG to resolve this issue now without inflicting further ‘divided party’ image damage on itself.

Unless you are a resident Irish or UK citizen, there is no right to vote in Irish general elections.

Even so, the 2004 and 2007 elections are a cautionary tale in reading too much into local/euro election results. Fianna Fáil were also ‘certain’ to lose power until the last week in the 2007 GE campaign. At the end of the day, the granny-vote will return to the party to some extent and even though I regard a return to government in 2012 as unlikely, past form suggests it cannot be ruled out – particularly given the huge chasm between Fine Gael and Labour on public-sector reform (which Labour appear to have no policy on other than condemning cuts while avoiding a position before the ICTU endorsement of the Croke Park Agreement), the role of private-medicine in the health-care system (e.g. privatisation of VHI), criminal-justice legislation such as increased surveillance powers for the Gardai, corporate-donations etc.

For some unknown reason your earlier comment was automatically consigned to ‘pending’ status. I can’t see why – maybe use of a particular word or something! I’ve unblocked it now.