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Polling while money burns
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Latest Irish Times/IPSOS-MRBI (the newly merged group) poll. Poll taken Tue-Wed when the banking report drip feed was on but before it became main news. Last comparable poll (January) in brackets: FF 17 (22), FG 28 (32). Lab 32 (24), SF 9 (8), Green 3 (3), Ind 11 (11).
Have at the interpretation in comments. To me it shows that Labour’s more confrontational approach in opposition works, typified by Eamon Gilmore’s “economic treason” remark (which seems to have stung). Note that Gilmore’s personal rating also far exceeds the other leaders. We’re a long way from a Tallaght Strategy world.
There’s just one problem. There’s no election scheduled any time soon.
P,
I think there are a number of things going on here: Cowen is deeply unpopular with the public, all his own fault. Crisis or no crisis, he’s blown it. Kenny, if he sat in the Dail as FG leader for another 30 years, just can’t hack it; for all his earnestness he comes across as not being quite on top of whatever it is he’s trying to say. Gilmore can string a few sentences together and make a decent speech; it may be all things to all men but when the alternatives look so unpalatable what are people supposed to do?
The second thing is that everyone knows there’s another rough budget on the way and the €3bn has to come from somewhere. People on public service pensions must be worried. People on State pensions even more worried. At community level, people are watching programmes being shut down and services they relied upon disappearing by stealth. Moreover, they have lost confidence in major national services like health – the appalling incompetence of the recent tragic cases of misdiagnosed miscarraiges don’t do anything to reinforce public confidence. In short, we’re punch drunk on incompetence.
Labour say they will protect universal entitlements to pensions and welfare and that they will preserve community services. Now they don’t say how, or how the country will afford it. But that’s enough if all you can see coming down the pipe is more pain, less money and a whole new raft of taxes like a property tax on a home where you can barely scrape enough together to keep paying the mortgage. Switching to Labour makes sense in such contexts.
And if this poll shows that all you need to gain popularity is a handy line in rhetoric and a bunch of empty platitudes and an ability to tap into anger and keep stoking it, well I guess it’s better than having us killing one another in the streets.
There may not be a general election scheduled, but nothing that says that circumstances might not give rise to one being called, sooner rather than later. The public mood is very volatile though and if the current government stays in power, or can keep itself together for the next twelve months or so, it could shift radically again, whether back to Fianna Fail or to Fine Gael is anyone’s guess. If there’s a double dip recession though, all the best predictions of mice and men as to the future complexion of Irish politics are off.
And Veronica if you look at the dutch elections where a party just won (barely) the elections on the promise of austerity, tax increases and “efficiencies” then it would appear there is tolerance for higher taxes.
Fine Gael dropping is no surprise at all. The party are like a bunch of jobs worths. They are over cautious and generally just happy to come to work.
Often people wonder why Fine Gael get stick (and some suspect its a latent pro Fianna Failism) but they miss the point IMHO that Fine Gael are summed up by the phrase “dull but competent” with the competency yet to be proven.
And,
Was it Bismarck who said that if the Dutch had Ireland they’d feed the world and if the Irish had Holland they’d drown?
Have to broadly agree with your point about FG though.
True but as was also commented:
If the Dutch had Ireland the country would still be a colony and if the Irish had Holland it would have taken more than 80 german soldiers to hold Amsterdam.
We should not forget that side of things either.
you have to laugh – there’s always so much talk of national government, yet the party that looks the angriest gets the endorsement.
It’s all about who can emote the best.
Anyway, as PONEill says, no election. It means nothing.
Queenie,
Fine Gael are doing a fine job emoting. Their current antics would make the most annoying self invovled teenage emo realise they were acting like a brat when they told everyone they didnt want to be born.
If its about emoting then Fine Gael will be about 65% in the next poll.
The muppets.