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New NAMA regulations published

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The Dept of Finance has published new NAMA valuation regulations which supersede previous ones and in so doing, provide some insights into what specific changes the European Commission demanded under state aid rules.  A couple of things to note from what is a confusing document.

First, we had noted before that the previous regulations had set a highly favourable discount rate for the treatment of future cash flows from bank assets.   This has been modified.  The new regulations set a series of discount rates, one each for 3 year, 5 year, and 8 year (not to be confused with the “standard discount rate” which seems in fact to be fixed percentage fee after all the valuation work is done).   Each incorporates a “risk margin” of 1.7 percent (which still seems low for all the risk) and presumably the risk margin is added to Irish government yields for 3 year, 5 year, and 8 year to get the actual numbers that are presented.  Since short-term yields are lower than long-term ones, sometimes the new discount rate ends up lower than what was set before, and sometimes higher.

Furthermore, the Commission seems to have required that when a bigger markup is being provided to current market value (through the long-term economic value concept), that a higher discount rate is used.  In other words, some of that long-term economic value will be pulled back down through the discounting.

It’s just as well that they got these rates set before European interest rates started to rise, and also good that they managed to maintain relatively low Irish bond yields for so long — no Greece style premium for us.   As a result, NAMA will pay more for assets (lower discount rate = higher asset values).  It’s a funny old world.

The other thing is that NAMA has set a very small window for the receipt of data and analysis relevant to their valuations.  In fact, if you were thinking about supplying your own analysis of what properties might be worth — it’s too late.  The window was 21 December to 10 January.  Someone was busy over the Christmas.

[edit: the technicalities of cash flow valuation might be the least of NAMA's problems]

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4 Responses to “New NAMA regulations published”

  1. # Comment by EddieL Mar 6th, 2010 11:03

    The biggest rip-off of the middle-class in history shows every sign of continuing after an engineered recession, with NAMA, compolsory private pension schemes, tax on everything, the free movement of cheap exploitable labour etc, etc.
    Is this the “real world” or the greatest scam in history?

  2. # Comment by Betty Mar 6th, 2010 20:03

    There is very high profile media objection to the plans to have the Catholic parishes of Ferns pay for the behavior of their bishops and some of their clergy. And at the same time there appears to be a resigned acceptance that the citizens of the state AND their children AND granchildren will pay for the criminal behavior of bankers, politicians and regulators while this triumverate retain a protected life style with considerable assets not available or put out of reach..Maybe it is because the NAMA bill is in billions , which we cannot comprehend and the Ferns bill is in thousands which we can comprehend.Or maybe it is easy to kick the catholic church and the spin machine for NAMA is working in overtime or maybe we have lost all sense of outrage.

  3. # Comment by EddieL Mar 7th, 2010 10:03

    Betty: You have hit the nail on the head. Why is it ok to bash the Catholic Church but not NAMA. The answer is simple and is the solution to our current woes. Control of the flow of money.
    Our troubles began when those who control the flow of money (investors) saw that they could overthrow governments – e.g. the Callagan and Heath Governments in England. You will notice that those who now get “elected” have to bend over backwards to investors (minor example – Batt O’Keefe).
    When the investors saw that the could control governments they also saw that the middle-class (the electorate)were no longer important as governments would pass any law they wanted.
    Needless to say they also took over the mainstream media who needed money to stay afloat. Through politics and the media they were able to destroy the benign influence of the Catholic Church and any other organisation which came in their way. This was all done openly by people who are sometimes in the public eye.
    That is it in a nutshell.

  4. # Comment by EddieL Mar 7th, 2010 13:03

    In regard to my post above I gather from an interview I saw on RT that a book by David DeGraw, “The Economic Elite versus the People of the United States of America.” would be worth a read.

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