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Shuffling the Deckchairs on….
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There is no doubt that the resignation of Martin Cullen, when taken with that of Willie O’Dea, presents Brian Cowen with a golden opportunity in the forthcoming reshuffle. The current travails of Mary Harney only adds to the list of ministers applying to be removed from thier post. In a political system such as ours where often the symbolism of a move like a reshuffle matters more in comment and analysis than substantive policy, what Cowen chooses to do and say on the reshuffle will set the tone for the government up to the next election.
From a government that began with more 35 Ministers and Junior Ministers, almost as many in government as outside of it, the Taoiseach now finds himself in a position to shuffle his players substantially thanks to the dropping out of two high-profile ministers.
There is an argument to be had separately about the importance of shuffling ministers. What does it really matter which rural solicitor gets the position at Enterprise, Trade and Employment? However our media, including this blog, will read a great deal into a reshuffle. What did he do with departments? Did he demote the right peole and promote anyone who has any iota of a clue about what they are doing? That in and of itself is going to dominate discussion of the reshuffle after it happens. However there is a deeper question here relating to Cowen’s own conservatism and his priorities.
The two spaces in cabinet mean that Cowen does not have to think about mass demotion to get a healthier mix in cabinet. It looks like we are stuck with this government until 2012, unless the recent travails of the Greens result in exit from the government. For that sake one must hope that Cowen makes best use of his assets and tries to hide the dunces in the corner under a large conical hat. There are competing interests in Cowen’s mind however, as always these days, between the party and the country.
It may be better for us all if Coughlan was moved from Enterprise or the portfolio divided to allow another Minister to begin work on job creation, it may be better to have some other ministers dropped and departments reformed. Mary Harney hardly has a great claim to remain on in cabinet (after the repeated spin that she would resign in the mid-term shuffle has proven to be, as yet unfouned, and she wings her way to Aukland).
The X-Ray scandal at Tallaght is but the latest episode in the tragic deterioration of relations between the health service and superiors/management within the system. Harney’s comments to Morning Ireland to the effect that:
“This is not a huge scandal of misdiagnosis,” Ms Harney insisted. “What we know is the 57,000 X-rays were not read by a radiologist.
“There is no such thing as a hospital free of medical error anywhere in the world…what we’re trying to do is minimise mistakes,” she added. “We will never have a system in which errors don’t occur but what’s important here is that when they do the bad practice stops, we carry out an enquiry and we learn lessons.”
Has more than a hint of the Noel Dempseys about it. Ministers are not immediately responsible for mistakes, can we all just pipe down and back up the truck?
There is a deeper malaise at the heart of a government in power for too long. The front bench is not only tired, it is cynical. The team that managed to get us into a fine mess will not be the team that gets us out and Cowen’s burden is to make the reshuffle a vital part of our recovery. It may not be of material difference but it will be taken as symbolic, as shorthand, of where we are going.
And yet. The fate of Fianna Fail at the next election hinges upon the willingness of party “foot-soldiers” to do the thankless task of having doors shut in their faces. These workers are more often than not associated with cabinet ministers wherever possible – it is what makes them the biggest vote getters in the country and what means that demoting them is bad news for Cowen long term. The loss of O’Dea might be overcome by the obstinacy of voters, the loss of Cullen probably less so. Yet with a tough election in prospect what do you do with ministers who win lots of votes? Do you put the best team out to work hard to get Ireland right? Or do you stick to the rules of the game and go for big vote pullers?
The criticism of Cowen as a ‘party man’ is particularly virulent – especially from the ‘Ireland-first’ Sunday Independent. In the main those criticisms are both understandable and justified, Cowen appears to dally over decisions and when it boils down to it has a deep and unmoving conservative streak. There is no doubt that the streak recoiled when he saw Colm McCarthy’s critisicisms of Departments like those of O’Cuiv and Cullen in his Bord Snip report. Though inventions of Ahern in large part, the provide jobs for those who would otherwise be looking for serious promotion. Jobs for the boys is what it has always been about – it is the best way to get re-elected to power. Cutting Junior Ministers was hard enough, creating a rump of disaffected who in some form or other have harmed the government in recent months.
The opportunity to add to that rump with former cabinet members is a prospect that is unlikely to appeal to Cowen. Yet there are many who need to be moved on. The challenge for Cowen is to take the right decisions for the country.
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The tallaght story will run a bit as Charlie OConnor said on Newstalk that harneys managemt of Health is not acceptable and that the Chair of the board’s position is untenable. He is well able to represent the concerns of his constituents within the framework of the parliamentary party without this becoming another destabilising element.Thats provided, I think, Cowen faces this issue and satisfies all concerned.
Cian,
Another way of looking at this is to say that the challenge for any politician always is to make the right decision for the country. As a general rule, they don’t; and certainly not as their first priority, whether in government and certainly not while they’re in opposition.
At the lower rungs of the ladder the lowly backbencher may not be even aware of what the ‘right’ decisions are, much less care about what happens outside their own bailiwick. The further up the ladder they progress, doing what’s right as opposed to what’s expedient or popular may result in their getting chucked out by angry voters and no longer in a position to do right by themselves, their party or the country.
The depth of the crisis that confronted this government hasn’t left them with much choice between what they’d like to do and what they have to do. What Fianna Fail have to accept – although they don’t appear to have taken it on board yet – is that they’re heading for a right hammering in the next general election. They have nothing to lose by ‘doing the right thing’ and it might even break their fall somewhat. According to himself, Brian Lenihan expected to be the most hated politician in the country. Instead, he is probably one of the most highly respected – not because he hasn’t made errors, which he has, but because he has faced up to the magnitude of the fiscal and banking crises and done what he has said he would do to stop Ireland becoming Greece.
As you argue, Cowen blew it a long time ago. His moment came and he disappeared. Even the whole business of a reshuffle has been drawn out to the point where it’s becoming a farce. You’d be forgiven for wondering what ‘next week’s scandal’ is going to be and who’ll be up in the firing line?
I think ‘putting the country first’ must mean assigning priority to the economic ministries in this reshuffle and most definitely reassigning Mary C. to some portfolio more suited to her talents, whatever they may be. Giving a lead on the economy and on some sort of new vision for the country is what’s needed. If our current Taoiseach can’t face up to that, then an election is the only alternative.