No clear signal in January Exchequer returns

The Department of Finance has published the January exchequer returns.  The main focus of course is on the revenue side.  It’s not easy to figure out where the January returns are relative to expectations since they don’t tell us “the profile” for January.   On the face of it, what’s worrying is the big percentage declines in revenue components compared to January 2009 — when the economy was already in recession.  Income tax is down 10% and VAT 18%.   And the weather was likely a factor in both falling, especially VAT.  Corporation tax and stamps are down even more but there’s a change in timing on the former and the latter is so tiny anyway that it’s not having much effect on the overall numbers (which of course tells a story given how important stamp duty was at one time).   But the overall picture from January revenue is that the country really has just 2 revenue sources, income tax and VAT, with a little top up from excise.  That’s a very thin tax base.

UPDATE:  Although the returns are an interesting story, the big one from the department today seems to be outsourcing of all its NAMA-related functions to the NTMA.