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Highs and Lows 2009
Read more about: Fianna Fail, Irish Politics 
Before we allow too much distance behind us, I wanted to pen a few thoughts on the year gone by, and the political highs and lows, as seen from my (quite openly subjective) perspective. As a practising Fianna Fáiler my comments will reflect mainly on government / party fortunes during the year but I will try attribute credit and critique in equal measures and as appropriate.
Whilst I mainly categorise in highs and lows there are a few events which I comment on which are neither highs or lows but have aspects of both or worthy of commentary for some other reason.
Some highs:
- Budget 2010. Whilst I accept this was difficult to swallow for many and my own household was not spared, I rank this as a high as it was an example of the government displaying leadership, decisiveness and a conviction that this would and could be solved and not put indefinitely on the long finger for any politically expedient reasons. Having the political courage to face down the unions was a big plus as was the fact that the FF backbenchers were the ones to finally find steel, revolting in favour of the sternest measures. It also confirmed the upwards trajectory of our Finance Minister, Brian Lenihan TD as the ace in the pack and a bulwark against government inertia or worse further slide.
- Not standing idly by A little trumpeted but steadily progressing initiative of 2009. Buoyed in no inconsiderable part by the efforts and encouragement of the Ógra movement (which for the first time saw northern voting delegates attend youth conference in 09) , the senior Fianna Fáil party organised, held recruitment events and public fori in three Northern counties in the latter half of 2009 (Down, Fermanagh and Tyrone). Progress was not rapid but steady rather than slow. I always believed in a thirty two county republican party and am greatly encouraged by such events. 2011 is a key year for Northern politics, being the last assembly election before the rules change, and it is important to get a foothold then if the initiative is to succeed politically. Here’s to more of it as we enter a new year. Towards 2016 indeed.
- Yes to Lisbon. Perhaps not very sexy, but yet very important for the advancement of the greater European project. A raft of organisational and procedural changes and some important common ground enablers to compete with the big blocs internationally and Continentally on climate change, security, defence etc. A long slog, longer than anyone expected when it started in 2004 but welcome closure nonetheless…
Some lows:
- Oireachtas Expenses Scandal The whole thing was an ignominious stain on the body politic. Whilst our former Ceann Comhairle friend, JOD seems to have been the worst, or at least the most prolific, the exorbitance seems to have been shared by many, and across the parties when all away on their various junkets. And of course such expenses were signed off by cross party committee. Which helps explain the reticence by many members of the Leinster house club on any side the house to really tackle this until things came to a head via the media and public reaction. Also whilst only the excesses were highlighted, the many legitimate expenses claimed are subsumed into the mix with the result that even legitimate expenses become regarded as carpet bagging. The Minister has twice asked for a review of the system and it is needed for all purposes, to expose abuses but also to safeguard the legitimate users of the system.
- Banking Crisis The whole problem here is that wrong doing or at least highly cavalier attitudes appear to have incurred no subsequent penalty, be it financial, legal or career wise. Sure some the big guns shuffled off the deck but not without some nice linings to their pockets as a result. The ‘moral hazard’ argument appeared to go out the window particularly with regard to the banks when it became clear some were ‘too big to fail’ but not in fact ‘too big to bail’. This is the ultimate quandary for a mixed economy, do the rules of extreme capitalism apply (where Darwinism prevails and the bigger they come the harder they fall) or does the state pick up the tab to avoid massive job losses and potentially crippling wider economic and social affects. Obama had to do it with the automotive industry and we had to do it with the banks. While the government may have had no other choice, it does leave a sour taste and we must still see heads roll in 2010 if this sector is to restore confidence.
- Local Elections This was a real black spot. The by-elections were obviously a disaster, with neither candidate within an asses’ roar of topping the poll, which (whilst often still losing on transfers) was at least the default position for FF by-election candidates in days gone by. For me personally it was a very tough outcome, having campaigned for almost a year, and been involved in local activism for a lot longer. Had it been locally political, I think the case stacked up very well, unfortunately we were condemned by the economic tsunami and the wider political malaise. A party colleague in another district, who has contested both general and local elections, recalled ruefully afterwards, how when he ran in the generals (when things were good nationally) he was cursed on local issues, and when he ran locally (when as a sitting Cllr he had a solid local record) he was cursed on the basis of national politics! Looking at the wider political situation, one of the difficulties for the Fianna Fáil party is that so few of the ‘next generation’ young bloods were elected in this election, as where survivors did emerge it was generally the old dog for the long road, based usually on decades of graft and local relationship building. Full credit to them, but the imbalance will make it harder for the party to renew or regenerate internally, or to introduce any new blood/ideas, which ironically is what the electorate kept saying on the doors was what was most needed. Having said that, the campaign itself was a high even if the end result was a low.
Some middle grounders
A few events which were not so much highs or lows but certainly bookmarked the year gone by.
- Programme for Government Review – A high in the sense that most of it (the PfG) is quite palatable, seems like a sensible body of action, and of course the fact that the government climbed the hurdle and got over it intact is a positive in itself. However on the negative side, it did rankle that the fate of the country sat with a couple of hundred green party activists unelected and unaccountable. Arguably extreme accountability on the part of the green party leadership, but not much of a look-in for the rest of the country or even for members of the much larger government partner (I don’t remember getting a ballot card in the post). There was an FF parliamentary party meeting to approve the deal following on from the green party convention but in the main it was a done deal at that stage. Of course it is logistically far harder to achieve such grassroots democracy in a larger party but why should one lot have all the fun?
- John McGuinness Row – Undignified exit for a capable performer but not without some positives. Much of McGuinness’s tirade rang true and there was some comfort in at least a debate taking place rather than pretending all was well when it clearly wasn’t. The manner of his manoeuvres may have been overdone but I don’t expect nor do I wish for this to be his last spell in higher office.
- NAMA – Well, who knows. The maths make sense and the markets like it but again the moral hazard argument rankles. Still, these are extraordinary measures for extraordinary times and as with many things this year, getting it over the line was an achievement in itself which allowed the wider economy and the country to move on, and the next issue to be addressed. The valuations are still all to take place and with a sensible board in place I am confident a balance can be struck between supporting the institutions and ensuring NAMA itself runs as a viable entity.
A year was certainly a long time in politics in 2009.
Really!! I know you said you are an FF supporter but saying that a government who have ruined the country for the next generation deserves credit (your highs) for pretending they are getting us out of trouble by robbing the poor (the ones who have not emigrated or will have to emigrate) to keep the rich in the luxury to which they have become accustomed over the last ten years. I despair!
Still in deninal, eh?
I mean denial. I *can* spell. H-I-L-A-R-I-O-U-S. See.
James,
Fascinating insight from your party political perspective. Do you think, though, that many of your party colleagues would be as reasoned and fair in their assessment of the events of last year?
It’s ironic too, don’t you think, that the man who should be the most hated politician in Ireland turns out to be the most respected and admired, and not just because of the way he has handled his personal misfortune in being diagnosed with a potentially life-threatening illness.
2009 was the year in which politics should have come into its own; the year which sorted the sheep from the goats and let the leadership qualities of our elected representatives, and leaders in other sectors of our society, shine through, to get us through.
The sheep were separated from the goats all right. If the definition of leadership is that you can step above your own circumstances, your own wants and your worst fears, and bring other people along with you, then we’ve seen precious few examples of it. Lenihan stands out because he has displayed such qualities, irrespective of whether his key decisions turn out to be right or wrong in the long run. Elsewhere, throughout most of the body politic, and in civil society too (the TUS, bankers and the senior civil service establishment immediately spring to mind) evidence of real leadership qualities has been most conspicuous through its absence.
One of the low points for me of the year has been the persistence of the politics of negativity, in which certain political high priests and priestesses have revelled and sought to exploit justifiable public anger for reasons of political populism and to promote their own personal advancement, without advancing a single idea of any practical use. Naturally we’d all like to see a few ‘perp’ walks, we’d like to see some of the most arrogant and shameless of our financial geniuses brought to account. The trouble is, as the ever sensible Brendan Keenan points out in his column in today’s Independent, this may not prove possible to the extent that public anger might desire. No government can retrospectively criminalise stupidity and hubris, even if the stupidity itself was hugely destructive to our individual livelihoods, our economy and our society. The sour taste will persist, and the government will the ones to pay the price.
But the biggest single low of 2009 for me was the realisation of how disinterested our political class are in changing the system in any meaningful way. There’s simply no appetite for reform at any level; from the way the Oireachtas conducts itself, to the expenses and entitlements of individual members and their parties, to the root and branch political reform of our democratic institutions.
Too little, too slow, too late and having designated a high profile scapegoat, appropriately compensated for his dislodgement from office, of course, in the shape of the former Ceann Comharile, time to sit back and keep going with the flow. At the top level of government too, there needs to be a radical reshuffle of the Cabinet, and the removal of many of the old stalwarts. That takes bottle, but I don’t believe the government can last through 2010 if it’s not done urgently.
Jesus James, don’t be too self-critical there.
Expose of Charles McCreevy and three FF senators as having taken largely undocumented loans from Fingers (of course, without ANY suggestion he may receive anything in return) not come to mind?
Thanks for the feedback.
@Mark,
Yes that was certainly a low, and a particularly infuriating one, I probably missed a few other highs and lows over the year also but it is a quick review of the main points as I recalled them. Arguably this comes in under banking crisis but it was certainly an awful way to end the year.
@Veronica,
Agree the ‘Politics of Populism’ were also a low, as bested by our mutual friend Mr. Gilmore and his comrades. Not constructive but apparently effective, in poll rating terms anyhow.
@All – there isn’t a lot of FF introspection out there on the web (or anywhere outside closed doors normally), and the predominant theme tends to be an opposition (or an ABFF) one.. my reflections are as candid and as objective as I can be, given my openly party political standpoint. If my views were otherwise I wouldn’t be in the party. But I only expect these views to be shared by between 17-23% of the population at present!
Not standing idly by
Where did I see that phrase before? So when is the “republican” party going to organise in the 6 counties and stop standing idly by? Or can that only be answered by a consultative body now formulating a report etc etc.
Maybe “Not standing idly by” is a poor phrase to use.
As a practising FFer have you noticed either an abatement or a contiuatin of the hostility to that party in public etc etc.
Finally, good long post thanks for putting it up.
Seconddly, your point that:
Looking at the wider political situation, one of the difficulties for the Fianna Fáil party is that so few of the ‘next generation’ young bloods were elected in this election, as where survivors did emerge it was generally the old dog for the long road, based usually on decades of graft and local relationship building. Full credit to them, but the imbalance will make it harder for the party to renew or regenerate internally, or to introduce any new blood/ideas, which ironically is what the electorate kept saying on the doors was what was most needed.
Take a bow Mr. Aherne I believe. This represents a significant problem for the party especially as the 2004 locals when FF lost 80 seats, followed by 2009 with another 84.
Add in whats going to surely be a fairly fractious General election for the party with candidates working to maximise their own votes and well its going to be a very battered, tired FF machine in a few years.
James,
All politicians engage in populism; it goes with the territory. They would never get elected to anything otherwise.
But populism needs to be tempered with realism in the form of credible policy options. One of our difficulties is that the feasability of the policies offered by our main political parties is not generally subjected to much rigorous analysis, except in the white heat of an election competition, when there is so much on the table and so many attempts being made to appeal to the interests of disparate groups in society that no objective analysis is possible. And of course, once they get into government, they may find that some of the most cherished of their policy objectives won’t work, and have to be thrown overboard, or that others are fundamentally destructive. FF, FG, Labour and even the Greens, have all shared that experience at different times.
I also think – admittedly probably a minority view among the broader community of posters on political web sites – that populist negativity as a political tactic is ultimately self-defeating. It may appeal to something visceral in the human psyche, and it may bring short term gains for its chief protagonists provided they can keep stirring the pot of public outrage to boiling point, but its futility becomes increasingly exposed over time.
Conspiracy theries and personalised attacks become self-reinforcing and finally begin to turn people off, especially if there’s nothing else on offer whose viability is demonstrated. I think that is particularly true in times of crisis. So, I’ll be watching the next set of opinion polls with interest to see which of us is right!
@Veronica I’m not sure who you are referring to in terms of “which of us is right” as we seem to be saying the same thing? For my own part, I had a very detailed local manifesto, unfortunately I got few enough chances to discuss it during campaign. I was also disappointed at the level of policy scrutiny. As mentioned, national issues clouded local ones despite it being a local office under renewal. We had then head of the INTO screaming about 5th June being “judgment day” for the government when in fact it was purely about who was best placed to provide local representation over the next five years in each area. But the die is cast and c’est la vie.
@Tribeca In terms of Northern mobilisation it has already started and is far beyond the consultative stage. Party fora (a form of organisational structure) have been formally established and launched in three of the six counties, with local officer boards elected and in place. We have a body of registered members right across the six counties, including one sitting MLA. As stated in the original piece, I would hope the push continues into the assembly elections of 2011 which could see us field candidates. I used the “idly by” phrase deliberately, being well aware of its historical connotations, as I personally feel we should have done this long ago. But still better late than never.
In terms of hostility to the party it is difficult to tell. Up until June I was on the doorsteps most nights so pretty direct finger on the pulse. Apart from a bit for Lisbon (when was very well received actually) haven’t been interfacing at that level since. I do think in the wider media though, the mood has shifted from anger to acceptance and a grim realisation that the government has to do what it has to do.
James,
I spoke in jest! You made the point that negative politics appear to be wroking out for some politicians as reflected in poll ratings; I think that a poll boom solely based on harnessing public anger must turn into a bust at some stage, because it offers people nothing.
Veronica,
That’s essentially an endorsment of FF campaign tactics then, is it not? FF are the least idealogically driven party in, well, western Europe, they harness public emotion, are pretty overt populist and often contradictory when looked at over a sustained period. So how does one counter that in order to implement preferred policy?
Mark
(This comment has been awaiting moderation for two days. This is a repost.)
I have to disagree with you on the ideology front – we have ideology coming out of our ears since the foundation of the State; whether it’s the narrow tribal nationalism/republicanism of the two major parties or the tepid socialism/communism of Labour. Not that ideology ever acted as a constraint on adopting populist stances on the immediate issues facing the country when it came to advancing a particular course of action (and smearing their opponents on ideological grounds in the process) in order to gain, or to hold, power. Unfortunately for our main political groupings, the tenets of their respective belief systems crumbled in the late 20th century, begging the question as to what it is they stand for anymore. One could argue that the Greens, whatever one may think of them, are the only party left with a coherent world view underpinning their policy preferences.
The sort of negative politics I’m decrying are, I believe, excusable if still reprehensible, in times of plenty when you have lots of choices. In a crisis, where choices are narrowed, they’re no good at all.
@Mark,
Generally populism implies doing things in a politically expedient manner to court popularity. Of all the adjectives you could use to describe the current government, ‘popular’ is the least likely to appear on the list.
Let’s examine briefly just the three highs I selected in OP.
Budget 2010. Need I say more?
FF Mobilising up North. Arguably this actually distracts from ‘domestic’ (ie 26 county) policy and organisational affairs. The cynics will always talk about the green flag being waved to produce a poll bounce. In reality there is no evidence of this. Any of the excellent ‘How Ireland Voted’ series will confirm there is no discernible polling impact from events north of the border. Depite what many of us may wish for, Clinton’s mantra prevails, “Its the economy, stupid”. Potentially it helps galvanise some of the membership but if so, this is an ancillary benefit.
Yes to Lisbon. Again not exactly a populist cause. Rejected initially by a majority of the electorate it took some convincing to win people round. Again the government did it because it was the right thing to do, but hardly a cheap trick to win votes.