Be Careful What You Wish For *With Wishlist*

This was published yesterday, brought to the top in light of Stephen Collins‘ article today.

Yesterday, in the midst of this Lisbon debate, Dan Boyle informed us that the negotiations between Fianna Fail and the Green Party have begun on a new programme for government. The question that jumps out at me now is ”what can they get?” and “will it be worth it?”

It’s June, the Green party are in meltdown following the local elections, Dan Boyle suggests a re-negotiation of the programme for government. It is a gamble but they get their meeting.

It’s now three months later, things have moved on. They are unlikely to get any spending commitments since any move to go over Brian Lenihan’s head will bring down more than the office furniture. And they have the carbon tax already, so the potential wins are few and far between.

Then they have the stress of negotiating conference, they didn’t have to talk government until mid-2010 as it stood, there was time left to steady the ship and derive a strategy. This puts attention on Government for them straight away and leaves them needing some commitments to sell to their members as a means of maintaining power. Those who left must be grinding teeth that the opportunity to bring down the government was so close for them (c.f. McKenna, Maher and O Leary).

For those who remain, the task of answering the question depends on what is asked. Will 2/3rds vote on a motion to leave govt? Will 2/3rds support the motion on the new programme?

In all it is a bit of a mess for a government party to be in, unsure ground. The ministers want to focus on Green policy but the party need to regroup and they might look collectively upon this as a minefield to be negotiated. They will in most likelihood come through, but the question they will ask at the end is probably ‘why?’.

Btw: The Fianna Fail team consists of Noel Dempsey, Dermot Ahern and Mary Hanafin. Two ‘bad cops’ to Noel’s good cop eh? That is a statement of intent.

Update: The Irish Times have that wishlist and there isn’t a hope in hell the Greens come out of this with much more than they already have. The rural vote goes nuts if FF give in on animal coursing while the cuts are already a matter off the table thanks to B Lenihan. The carbon tax they have.

Political reform represents a chance to save the document so it will be interesting to see if anyone gives away much on it. All in all this represents a headache the Green Party probably don’t need now. At the time in the heat of the moment it made sense to make a gesture. To keep your head when others are losing theirs is the mark of a man. To lose your head and wind up with the prospect of a yearly discussion on remaining in government is a noose around the party’s neck and a disincentive to recovery.