Yes Side still in fear of McCreevy

Pat Cox yesterday morning delivered a speech down the country making plain the case for Europe. Of course Cox is running hard with his Ireland for Europe grouping trying to get some traction on the Yes side for Lisbon II as well as getting a credible claim in for credit at the other end. Many of these groups are one man bands, running on shoestrings behind a figurehead. Since we don’t trust many of our politicians that is perhaps no surprise. And they do have time to embed themselves in the wider public consciousness – though whether they do or not will be telling.

However the problem posed by our politicians is what I wanted to write this short post on. For it is one of the few politicians that Irish people tend to listen to (not out of awe, but becuase he doesn’t appear to mind being blunt) is Charlie McCreevy. Our erstwhile commissioner will probably be returning to Ireland shortly after the Lisbon referendum. He is also one of those voices that the European establishment fear could utterly destabilise their (wrong-headed) strategy for winning Lisbon II.

The current phase of the campaign is to highlight just how silly we all were to vote no. The Irish people need to be made feel like eejits for even contemplating moving away from Europe – the recession has given us a firm shake and our political leaders’ job is to hammer home the shame. That strategy you don’t need to be a genius to work out, is a little bit of a high-wire act. There are worries being voiced internally that the campaign by the yes side is following the pattern of the last time and rather than getting down and talking at an individual level, the wonks and politicians are busy rubbishing the no side while failing to target their campaign effectively. There is time to save it but ‘grassroots movements’ should have been active under the radar since last February / March.

Of course that is wishful thinking on the part of these sources but there is truth to the idea that it would have been much better for the yes side to get discussing, get positive and do it below the radar rather than grandstanding. And McCreevy is why.

Pat Cox’s speech was dedicated to rebutting McCreevy’s assertion – which is utterly plausible – that were the Lisbon Treaty put to the vote Europe-wide it might well have been defeated by anti-EU sentiment across the continent. Perhaps not by 95% but possible nonetheless.

McCreevy was the man who last time out admitted he didn’t read the Lisbon Treaty, rubbished the idea that it was intelligible and undermined the yes campaign’s platform. That said he did not have to work hard to do it, the campaign was premised on brow beating people into accepting Europe in the space of a few weeks – not much thought or effort given by our political class (wrapped up in the demise of B Ahern) to forging a platform early on, setting the narrative and convincing people. McCreevy knew the electorate felt bolshie and taken for granted and he had the streak of contrariness to tap into it.

Ignorance is a big issue here – not actual but perceived. The electorate perceived they had failed to grasp the Lisbon Treaty, the Yes side failed to disabuse them of this perception and the legitimacy of voting no (out of ignorance) was followed through. McCreevy facilitated that and many wonder what his own position would be if he were unencumbered with the Commissioner’s position.

The Yes side this time around are setting their stall out in a way that could fall foul of a similar outing from a leading political figure. People are not any the wiser – little effort had been made to build stocks of knowledge (again perceived or actual) and trust between voters and the yes side. Instead we have speeches aimed at policing the political class – no one must step out of line.

The likes of McCreevy have not been out since the last referendum making the case for Europe. Small pockets of public life have been trying but the ground has not been laid (much to the annoyance of some in the pro-Europe camp who feel a campaign must a) talk to real people not policy wonks and b) not beat people around the head for voting no the last time). Cox’s speech yesterday suggests this may be deja vu all over again.

That will be the big issue ahead for the Yes campaign, the draw of internal policing versus the need to engage voters, communicate with them and attempt to overturn the defeat from last time. McCreevy will not be leading the ‘no’ side but he doesnt have to. His blunt honesty will emerge again but it is within the yes side that the kernel for another rejection lies.