Head over to our T
Who, what and when? – Gov’t collapse
Read more about: Coalition, Comment, Democracy, Fianna Fail, Government, Health, Ireland, Irish Politics, News, Sligo-North Leitrim 
As Cian points out, the Government’s majority is potentially down to the vote of one TD after Sligo-North Leitrim TDs Eamon Scanlon and Jimmy Devins resigned the Fianna Fáil whip today.
The Government now has 83 votes, including Jim McDaid but not today’s two. It consists of 72 Fianna Fáil TDs, 6 Greens, two former Progressive Democrats, Jackie Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry and Jim McDaid.
The Opposition is made up of 52 Fine Gaelers, 20 Labour TDs, four Shinners, Maureen O’Sullivan, Joe Behan and Finian McGrath – total, 79.
There is one vacant seat which will be filled by the winner of the Donegal bye-election. Then the two martyrs of today. The Ceann Chomhairle, former Fianna Fáil minister for arts, sport and tourism, John O’Donaghoe, would have the casting vote.
So, if today’s two decide to vote against the Government, as Joe Behan has done, then the government:opposition ratio will be 83:81. That would leave it in the hands of Jackie Healy-Rae and Michael Lowry or Jim McDaid. If one of that trio moves then there’s a hung Dáil, two – we’re on.
Considering that the Budget will undoubtedly impact the health system massively, the likelihood is that by that time the HSE will be receiving some awful press for its handling of swine flu and that the two martyrs have resigned over cut backs in the health system, the today’s two voting against the Budget is plausible. Being honest, I can’t see them voting against anything else prior but Budget will be a tester. I reckon this is a PR exercise, but one that they may live to regret. Still, the politics are worth exploring…
So, for the sake of argument lets take it that Scanlon and Devins will vote against the Budget…
Obviously Lowry is the most likely to move. While he’s a Fine Gaeler at heart, he has voted with the Gov’t since the last General Election. But there are a few scenarios that could see him make The Big Switch. The first – and least likeliest – is that in knowing the forthcoming revelations from the Moriarty Tribunal won’t paint him in a good light, he’ll look for positive press to balance the scales – switching allegiances thus causing the dominoes to begin falling could make him a God in North Tipp. And not alone would it concrete his seat, it would also bury all of Moriarty coverage. But, like I said, that’s least likely.
Alternatively, he could could do it in the first few weeks after the Dáil returns if Fine Gael table a motion that targets his voters’ demographic. That might force his hand.
However, the most likely scenario of the ones I’m proposing is that he’ll vote against the Budget in November. As I have said previously, Snip doesn’t treat rural Ireland nicely – the next budget is going to be largely based on Snip. Voting down a vicious budget, in the process saving the people of North Tipp from the wrath of the Department of Finance in Dublin and bringing down an extremely unpopular Fianna Fáil Government would make Michael a hero at home. Being seen to prop up the Fianna Fáilers would not look too spiffing.
If Cowen & Co. are to avoid Lowry voting against a Government, in my opinion, they’ll have to promise him the world. Doing that would not be easy. There is no doubt that the Budget will be painful for rural Ireland, farmers will be up in arms, the REPs scheme may go – these are not issues from which Lenihan could omit North Tipp.
But if Lowry doesn’t go, Healy-Rae might. While the man may appear to be a complete mess he is one of the must shrewd local politicians in the country. However, the Budget will also cause uproar amongst his constituents. My prediction: Healy-Rae won’t be quite so Fianna Fáil now that the Castleisland bypass has been signed off on. He may have Fianna Fáil in his blood but he’s a TD to the bone, the Budget will cause conversation in the Healy-Rae camp.
Of course there’s still a chance that McDaid could vote against his brothers. Some would argue he is more likely to do so than Healy-Rae, I’m not so sure. Other potential movers include Paul Gogarty and John McGuinness. Gogarty has been searching for something to vote against for months, the Budget, which will of course hit education, may just be too tempting. John McGuinness is an even less likely rebel but I wouldn’t put it past him.
So, to sum up, for the parties to switch sides would require today’s two and two more to vote for the Opposition, John O’Donaghoe is highly unlikely to vote against the Government.
While they’re safe for now they are looking more shaky than the period post-medical card debacle. The Fianna Fáil whip will have a big task to make sure all the crew show up for every vote. They still have to go through the Commission on Taxation report, the probable explosion in swine flu cases following the schools returning, Lisbon II, the Greens’ vote on the Programme for Government and then the renegotiation of the Programme for Gov’t, all before the Budget. If they do get through the Budget they’ll have to face a bye-election which would almost surely close what is left of the majority yet further…
Is there a way this Government can go full term? If not, any opinions on what will be the straw that breaks the camels back?
PS – Greens. Rocks & hard places.
more wishful thinking
Since we’re being speculative, let’s not assume John O’Donoghue is there forever. The sand shifted from under his House of Commons counterpart due to expenses. He still hasn’t said a word about his marathon junketing in 2006. In past balance of power situations, the ability to elect a Ceann Comhairle was crucial.
P O’Neill. A politican resigning? In Ireland? You been drinking the crazy juice again? BUt say he did. Who would the opposition like in the Ceann Comhairle seat? Healy Rae?
Also Lowry is already a god in North Tipp. At the locals his “team Lowry” increased their seats. So he is not under much pressure.
If the government loses a finance bill it is the same as a no confidence motion. Is the part of NAMA to be voted on in September classed as a finance bill?
I can’t see the government winning the vote on the next budget.
Business and social groups will be lobbing Fianna Fail TDs very hard to block carbon and water rates which seem to be emerging as the issue on which green party participation in the government will hinge. Fianna Fail TDs, and the businesses who bankroll them, will view it as economic suicide to introduce taxes which will add considerably to the overheads of struggling Irish companies. Green TDs will see it as environmental suicide not to set an example they can point to, and get clapped on the back for, at the next international tree huggers confrence (and now we welcome our special guests from Ireland. They f**ked up their country but set an example we should all lobby our governments to follow). One side will vote against the budget over this.
At the same time Bloody Mary will know she has to finish off the privatisation of the Health service before she is forced from office. She will use the economic crisis to accelerate the closure of all public hospitals outside the yet to be constructed centres of excellence. I would expect to see her attempt to justify this by suggesting some of the closed hospital properties should be sold to private companies. Fianna Fail TDs from the likes of Sligo, Nenagh, Clonmel, Ennis etc cannot tolerate this and expect to keep their seats. They will have to vote against any budget that completes the closure of their local health services.
I’d put money on McDaid being the one to go. If the two Sligo lads vote against the Government on cancer services, then McDaid (as a Doctor who resigned the whip in similar circumstances) would have to do likewise. All of a sudden you have 82-82 and you’re down to O’Donoghue’s vote.
Of course, then you have to wonder whether the Government will repeat last year’s move and announce the budget in mid-Autumn. If Lisbon II is in early October, chances are the Donegal bye-election for Pat The Cope’s seat will be at the same time, and FF simply don’t win bye-elections when they’re still in power. So if the budget happens after the Lisbon vote, and contains bad news for the health services, the Government loses 83-82.
In that light, P O’Neill’s idea that The Bull might be taken back to the benches isn’t a daft one at all.
My suspicion is that these resignations of the whip (remember we’re supposedly 3 years from an election) are all about a view doing the rounds on the FF back benches that ultimately the budget can’t pass. It can’t pass because there will be too many riders attached to it that to keep Joe Behan 2.0s on board that would unpick the government’s overall strategy. And that balance can’t be struck, nor even if it could the Troika lack the political touch to do so. Just look at the medical cards mess to see how good their political antennae are.
But that doesn’t really matter because between now and then as it is quite likely that the Greens will not be able to get the revised program for government passed at their conference hence collapsing the government post Lisbon.
The Constitutional position is clear. Even were the Government to lose a Dail confidence-motion, the dissolution of the Dail – a prerequisite for a General Election – could not be called without the consent of the President. Constitutionally, President has “absolute discretion” with respect to a dissolution if An Taoiseach, who requests one, has lost his/her Dail majority. In that context, Cowen or at least FF could find itself remaining in power as an acting-government for many months to come. A change in Government will only come to pass if Kenny swallows his pride and agrees to coalition with SF.
In that context, Article 13.2 of the Constitution: “Article 13.2.1° Dáil Éireann shall be summoned and dissolved by the President on the advice of the Taoiseach.
13.2.2° The President may in his absolute discretion refuse to dissolve Dáil Éireann on the advice of a Taoiseach who has ceased to retain the support of a majority in Dáil Éireann”.
FT – Who said anything about the constitutional basis? It’s obviously any government would cling to power as long as it can but realistically no Government can, would, or will hang in there if it’s in a situation where it’ll lose every single Dáil vote.
FT, if President McAleese were to act to preserve a FF lead government that had just lost a Dail confidence motion we would be looking at a constitutional crisis to dwarf all others. She go down in history in disgrace as the person who protected FF from the people. She would no more act in that way than Paddy Hillery was inclined to do so in the early 80s.
If the government lost a confidence motion Cowen would be bound to ask for a dissolution of the Oireachtas and she would oblige.
This is her last term though DS, so she has nothing to lose.
She has a her reputation and place in history to think of, I would never have rated her as some mere FF hack. If she did as you suggest then that is all she would be remembered as.
Why would anyone want to be in government now. The economy is in the ditch. Snip has come out, and the government of the day is in trouble either way. They implement snip and the country goes to hell in a hand basket, if they don’t the catch economic hell. I say that FF should be wearing the economy, at least until the budget is tabled. Let FF do the donkey work, and catch hell for the draconian budget that is sure to come down the pike. Once that budget has come down FF is radioactive for at least 10 years.