What will be the Voters’ Shorthand on Election Day?

Second-order elections, like the ones we are having on June 5th have a capacity to be overrun by the issues of the day. A de-facto referendum on the main events in people’s lives or an opportunity to show up, tick the box you always ticked and get on with it. This second-order election series has been little different as parties struggle to get traction on local manifestos (though media decisions not to cover local elections with that sort of attention play a part) and resort to the kind of bickering and posturing that has become the dominant image over the past weekend.

Voters in these cases tend to use shorthand to make up their minds. As lines get blurred between candidates (how does one choose between two brands of Green in Dublin e.g.) and people begin to decide whether they will vote and for whom, they return to the lens which helps filter the noise and decide their second order vote. That lens is different for many voters, there has always been a chunk for whom it is habit. Vote the way you always did, get the local councillors back in to help the party cum General Election time.

This time around, like 2004, there are plenty of other lenses available and the one that voters pick might well decide how badly things go for FF and how well the opposition might do.

Anglo Irish Bank:

The bank that announced on Friday that there will be a €4bn euro subvention from the government needed in the near term with the possibility of another €3.5bn later on? Will it be the slogan ‘anglo-tax’ that sticks to voters minds and brings in support for Labour or Fine Gael?

The Green party are calling for some in Anglo to be brought to justice but they must worry that whatever about their part in the problem they are at cabinet for the solution. The voters do not seem as forgiving of the Greens as they might hope and at 3% a fate like the PDs may be the price for governing with FF.

The Ryan Report

A litany of abuse, horror and torture of the children in this country that has stunned almost everybody. For a generation around me it was the first concrete experience of a sordid, sorry history when the institutions of state decided to turn a blind eye to the abuse of power, authority, trust and children by the Catholic Church. For many of us those institutions are now more corrupt than ever and in deep need of a boot in the hole. That much should secure a vote against FF but to where? Do voters believe that Fine Gael and Labour represent alternatives? Both were in government since the foundation of the state, are de facto implicated in the institutions of state and may bear some consequence on polling day. Where will those voters turn? Or, in a final assault by the state on their independence will they remain at home, voiceless?

Economy:

The Anglo lens is one thing, but the wider economy will likely become the issues that sharpens the mind on polling day. Can punishment of Fianna Fail be taken as a given?It probably can and for good reason, Bertie and Brian navigated us into a construction led boom. One our current minsiter for Finance has said would have driven us into recession anyway. So what sort of excuse is Lehman brothers’ collapse when the government admits their decision to leave a property bubble inflate – one which also cost us billions in overpayment for land and infrastructure – would have us in the poor house anyway.

They decided not to rebase the tax take. They told us all to shut up when worries were raised about our dynamic economy. They also went about the last two budgets in a ham-fisted manner with 5% more to come in December. If votes use the economy for the shorthand, FF will have a bad day and the Greens mightn’t do too well either – despite their exhortations to get the Anglo criminals jailed.

Where do voters go? At every level they have options on left and right, Fine Gael and Labour have put distance between them on the economy but the relentless focus on economic recovery being about jobs seems to have given Labour a lift and a boost from voters who are not so much looking for a step-by-step programme but for a project communicated well with the right priorities at its heart. It has been a boon to Labour and made other parties slightly frustrated, but why would you show your hand when voters only want to see partial info? The economy – especially in Dublin – could deliver them seats aplenty.

Local Issues:

This is the last hope for Fianna Fail. Jody Corcoran, noted Sindo hack, opined this weekend that Fianna Fail could be heading for fifteen percent in the polls. That number is nightmarish but the performance of Crowley and Pat ‘the cope’ Gallagher in the polls suggests that Cowen’s rehtoric on local personalities might stem the losses. If people are more interested in their locality and who has delivered it may be that FF do better than the polls predict. A bad day is in the offing but we all know that the volume of votes needed in rural areas is much lower than urban areas to retain seats. If FF can manage the vote with local personalities they can avert the worst.

All bets are off at this stage, the voter is disoriented by the competing narratives, the waters have been well muddied at this point. Things could go well, they could go badly but at this point, three days off the outcome is not predictable.