Mayo News calls seat for Ganley

One of few journalists to call CU for Dana in 1999 has called the third seat in the Northwest euro constituency for Libertas leader Declan Ganley:

Ten years ago this week, I was the only reporter to ‘call’ it for Independent candidate Dana Rosemary Scallon in advance of the Connacht-Ulster European election. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael did not see it coming. This week, I’m going to ‘call’ it again. When the votes are counted in Castlebar on Sunday, I expect Declan Ganley to be a new MEP for the North West region, alongside Jim Higgins and Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher. This is the only constituency that takes in parts of all four provinces. Longford and Westmeath make their debut in the North West for the first time. Clare was added in advance of the last election five years ago while Donegal, Cavan and Monahan, together with the five Connacht continues comprise what was known as the old Connacht-Ulster region.”

Dismissing TNS-MRBI polls implying support for Ganley on just 9%, Commins points to the difficulties polling the largest constituency in Europe, and the disconnect between the Euro-elites and the people:

It is a vast territory and one where opinion polls have not a hope in hell of forecasting the outcome. This is a strange election and the establishment candidates in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are on edge. The result of the Lisbon Treaty vote last year sent shock waves through the main parties, they completely misjudged the mood of many of their own supporters. There is a huge ‘disconnect’ with Europe among the electorate. Believe it or not, many people have little idea who is running for Europe. Some who will vote in the Council elections will not waste much time looking at the European ballot paper. Their votes are likely to go anywhere.”

Also counting in his favour is the abandonment of the southern half of the constituency to Ganley, and the media’s obsession with his candidacy:

“Who is the most talked about candidate in the North West constituency in this campaign? Declan Ganley. ‘How will Ganley do?‘ is the most asked question by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil people up and down the constituency. He is at the heart of every conversation in this constituency, a good place to be for any candidate. Together with Padraig MacLochlainn of Sinn Fein, he represents the views of the big majority of people who cast their votes against the Lisbon Treaty. In Mayo, 62% voted “No” and yet Fianna Fail and Fine Gael top brass refuse to accept the democratic expression of the people. Is it any wonder the people have lost all trust in the governing elites who refuse point-blank to accept our verdict?…… Declan Ganley is the only big name south of a middle line drawn through the North West constituency from west to east. One would have to assume that if any other candidate found themselves so well placed, and in Galway, the biggest populated county of all eleven counties, it would represent a huge advantage. On that basis, plus the fact that the vast bulk of the Dana team from the previous two European elections are ‘on side’ with the Libertas leader, I believe Ganley, whose mother is from Achill, will repeat the Dana sensation of ten years ago. Should Fianna Fáil hit a seriously bad day, then both Ganley and Harkin could make it across the line along with Jim Higgins”

Commins also points to a ground operation superior to Harkin’s – even (on Newstalk’s “The Right Hook) comparing it to the Blaney-machine of the 1980′s:

Marian Harkin from Sligo won a seat as an Independent back in 2004. Despite an early opinion poll showing her featuring well, it is hard to detect such support on the ground. Certainly, she does not have the ‘troops’ that the Ganley campaign has going door to door in towns around the counties and she has been depending to a large extent on radio appearances and some public meetings to maintain a prominent presence in the last three weeks. On the defeated Yes side in the Lisbon Treaty, Marian does not appear to have the same momentum which carried her through in 2004. She is also based in the crowded northern end of the constituency which make things more difficult for her.” .

As bookmakers slash odds on a Ganley victory (from 2/1 to 5/4 on Paddypower), is Europe set to force itself to the heart of Irish politics, as in the rest of Europe? We can but hope.