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Joe Behan could bring down the Government?
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At present the Government have a three-vote majority in the Dáil with the support of Jackie Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry and Joe Behan. However, when Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher is elected to Europe his vote will immediately no longer count in Dáil Eireann bringing the majority down to two.
Healy-Rae will never vote against the Government but Lowry is a former Fine Gael TD and it is accepted that he still holds a place in his heart for his Mount Street mates. So if Lowry can be persuaded to switch allegience and vote against the Government in the motion of no confidence the majority is down to one – Joe Behan.
Behan resigned from Fianna Fáil last October in protest against the plans to change the rules around medical cards for over-70s. He was critical of Cowen and the FF parlimentary party in general for being “out-of-touch” with the electorate. In his resignation letter he said he planned to take up an independent stance on “every single issue before the Dáil” though he also mentioned several times that he is resigning with a heavy heart.
Interestingly he implied that he would have supported some Labour motions had he not been a Fianna Fáil TD
“I understand the need for party discipline and I have supported the Government line on a number of issues pertaining to my constituency, against my better judgment.
They include the Labour Party Private Members Motion on the need for an independent investigation into the tragic deaths of two firemen from Bray and the need for a full-time fire service in north Wicklow and the Fine Gael Private Members Motion regarding the provision of ABA schools for children with autism.
I have yesterday defended the indefensible refusal yet again by the Government to fund the construction of the Rathnew to Arklow section of the N11, which has seen many tragic and fatal accidents in recent years.”
Have I got this right – to be totally honest I can’t reel the numbers in the Dáil off the top of my head but… Joe Behan, if Kenny can persuade Lowry, is the Kingmaker?
no chance
Even if Lowry and Behan voted against them you still have: FF 76; Greens 6; Healy Rae 1; gives 83 which is enough for a split vote and O’Donoghue’s casting vote to come into play??
“FF 76; Greens 6; Healy Rae 1″
+ 2 PDs/former PDs.
Wouldn’t work I’m afraid.
Nah the two PDs are included in my maths – though I’m still not 110% on the numbers I’ve used, it is disgracefully difficult to get accurate numbers from an official source online.
I’m not claiming it would work – but it is far tighter than people are saying in the papers etc. Theoretically it comes down to Behan and Lowry – and Lowry is certainly for turning.
Of course this all assumes FG actually want the motion to succeed and are actively trying to talk these two around and not just the publicity from tabling it.
There are 74 whipped FF TDs as of right now. Pat the cope is gone and Behand is outside the party, and McDaid is unwhipped. Though both support the government most of the time. Healy-Rae is also a FF TD in all but name.
FG got 51 in GE and now 1 more = 52
Labour got 20 in GE and are still 20
Greens are 6 all the time = 6
SF are 5 all the time = 5
FF got 78 elected but lost one to CC, then gained Bev so back up to 78 but then Brennan died, so 77 then Joe left so 76, then McDaid lost the whip so 75. So FF have 75 whipped TDs and now with Pat the Cope gone they have only 74 whipped TDs.
PDs had 2, are no longer a party but both still support government or have so to date. Add ex-PDs and Green and whipped FF and you get 82. But in practice Behan, McDaid, Healy Rae will support them most of the time. So they have 85 to call on.
McGrath was with them but isn’t now and Gregory was always against them but while his seat was vacate it didn’t count against them.
But with the removal of the Cope FF have only 74 whipped TDs available tomorrow. As of right now FF are completely dependent on the Greens to remain in government before FF+PDs and a couple of tame indos would do. Now no longer possible. The idea of Bertie’s coalition was that a few wheels could come off and it would stay upright irrespective of which wheels they were. Now wheels have come off and suddenly they are very much dependent on the other wheels to stay in place.
FG+Lab+GRn+SF = 83 is enough to defeat the government if the Greens wanted to cross the floor.
“Nah the two PDs are included in my maths – though I’m still not 110% on the numbers I’ve used, it is disgracefully difficult to get accurate numbers from an official source online.”
Ah sorry, you included them in FF. Didn’t notice.
And you’re quite right the numbers are very hard to find. Wikipedia is the easiest source – but not the best as an official reference.
So, basically the government can be defeated, but an election would be required to form a new government (given that pratcially speaking SF are not possible coalition partners for most), have I got that right?
I was talking to Dan (Sullivan) on Twitter and he says I have it slightly wrong – not sure exactly in what way to be honest though. I was in work all day and slept a few hours after the marathon blog session of the weekend so I haven’t had a chance to do some proper research and find proper numbers…
Dan is usually good for crunching political numbers…
I think Pat the cope can retain the dual mandate until the next election but if he is in Brussels he would have to have a “pair”–are the opposition willing to give him a pair–I suppose he could always do a Mary Lou and stay at home if there was a tight vote coming up.
The Numbers
FF 74
+ Grn 6
+ PD 2
+ Healy-Rae 1
+ Lowry 1
= 84
FG 52
+ Lab 20
+ SF 4
+ McGrath 1
+ O’Sullivan 1
+ Behan 1
= 79
This omits the Ceann Comhairle, Joe Behan and Jim McDaid; and presumes that Pat The Cope has vacated his seat. McDaid’s status is a bit of a grey area, but either way how one figures the majority to be only 3, I really don’t know.