Gov’t still has many hurdles left to crash through…

Today the motion of no confidence tabled by Fine Gael seems certain to fall, meaning they will not be able to table another such motion for six months – early December. With the Government’s Dáil majority looking shaky, I’m going to assume Fianna Fáil will push to have the Donegal South-West bye-election to replace Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher between now and then. Their choice is – push for the bye-election, in an area where they have a traditionally strong vote and hope to win, shoring up their majority – or leave the seat open, meaning they don’t risk losing it to an anti-gov voter.  My money is on them pushing for the bye-election.

Sinn Féin are looking to have the bye-election on the same day as Lisbon II, which will probably be at some point in October. Their candidate will almost surely be Pearse Dotherty, who narrowly missed out on the last seat in the 2007 general election. Dotherty, now a senator, has a strong media profile and would have been a big hope for a seat for Sinn Féin come the next general election. Whether having the bye and Lisbon votes on the same day is a smart move on Sinn Féin’s part is debatable. The electorate generally according to recent polls, is far more Yes-leaning than it was last time round, will people vote against the Sinn Féin campaign on one ballot paper, then in favour of it on the other?

Then again, it could be argued that the electorate in Donegal is not as Yes-leaning as some other areas, so a two-a-day may be in the Shinners favour. Who knows.

Either way, if they’re still in power you can be sure Fianna Fáil with throw a huge campaign behind whomever they choose at their selection convention. The Soldiers of Destiny had a big vote in the area last time out, nearly taking two quotas in a three-seater. Times are tough for the party though and a loss here would be an embarrassment, it’s the [Current] Tanaiste’s back yard. They’d have to buck the government-candidate bye-election trend, to do so would require great vote mobilisation and a very strong candidate.

Of course, that assumes that the core FF vote in Donegal is still there to be mobilised – the results from the weekend seem to indicate that it may well be. In the county’s local electoral areas FF averaged around 34% of the vote – you could add to that the vote of a few former FF members who ran as independents as well. FF pulled in the highest percentage of the vote in every LEA in Donegal bar one, which they missed out on by a single percentage point.

Still, even with a strong history in the area, you can be sure FF will be up against it in the bye-election. Not alone are they an unpopular government but Sinn Féin’s candidate will have a high profile as will Labour’s – if they choose to run newly elected councilor and well-known name, Frank McBrearty Jnr. Stephen reckons Fine Gael’s choice of candidates isn’t great, it’s between two local little-known councilors, Slowey and O’Neill – even as a Fine Gael member he’s already calling it for Sinn Féin.

But, and getting to the nub of my point, the bye-election won’t be the only thing that has the potential to pull down the Government between now and the next motion of no confidence. Again assuming that the Government calls the bye-election and is still hanging on in there after it, win or lose, and that Lisbon is Yes’d – they’ll have to subject the electorate to another cutting budget before Fine Gael table another no confidence motion. Gormley said at a recent meeting with bloggers that the forthcoming December budget – even when compared to the recent ‘mini’-budget – will be a “bloodbath”. Good luck, lads.

So, after tomorrow, when the Greens and pro-gov independents will hand Fine Gael and Labour another stick to beat them with, there are still a few hurdles for the Government to crash through before they stumble into 2010. And they’ll only be able to do that after refusing to give a few hundred thousand people their Christmas bonus.

Excuse the long sentence but – the Government have to vote down the no-confidence motion, get through the beatings from the Opposition between now and the summer, Yes Lisbon, win the Bye-election, out-last the demonstrations that will undoubtedly take place from the announcment of record unemployment figures next month, maintain the independent’s support through the no-Christmas-bonus period, survive the bloodbath budget and then beat another no confidence motion in December or January.

Some are saying the government won’t fall within 12 months, I’m saying it’ll be closer to 9.