Cabinet to Decide on October 2nd as polling day for Lisbon II

According the Irish Times the date for Lisbon II will be set for Friday October 2nd. It’s not a weekend and it would be preferable to have this vote at a time that suits many people. Nonetheless this is the date we have.

What is going to be crucial from here is framing the narrative from the yes side as to why Lisbon is a vital treaty and why we should vote for it. That ground was left to Libertas and the left last time out. They had months to develop compelling reasons for voting no as Bertie was preoccupied with his finances.

For Cowen this opportunity to revisit his first defeat offers some hope. The spin cycle is on overload with Cowen’s many victories but a true test of his mettle and leadership is how he leads a Lisbon campaign and the way voters appraise him. In the summer months that will be moot as civil society groups take an active role in framing the debate. Cowen will have to be able to communicate the content of the treaty and it’s value to ordinary voters.

It will be a vital first few weeks. It was this phase last time put where re tone was set and the themes became
1) an unintelligible treaty
2) loss of a commissioner
3) a yes vote being taken for granted

The task for the yes side is overturn this and get people onside. While I suspect scepticism remains about the treaty, more will be willing to listen ad hear the argument. If it mves to a referendum on the government then all bets are off.