Head over to our T
All Counts Done and the Spin Moves On
Read more about: Features 
Marian Harkin, Pat ‘the cope’ and Jim Higgins were elected early this morning to the final three MEP seats. A total seat count for the locals is as follows:
FG 340 (+38), FF 218 (- 84), Lab 132 (+31), Other 136 (+40), SF 54 (-), GP 3 (- 15)
and at Euro level
FF 3, FG, 4, Lab 3, SP 1, Ind 1
In an effort to get the story beyond their awful losses at local level, bear in mind that 80 losses was the higher end of informed estimates and well ahead of pre-election Fianna Fail expectations game spin. They got a total beating, worse than acceptable and now the are under a lot of pressure. How do they pass Lisbon with this kind of public scepticism about them?
Why, by reshuffling the cabinet of course. The Independent report that Mary Coughlan is in line for a change of portfolio while remaining on as Tanaiste in an autumn reshuffle. The idea of pushing her to the side is not likely for two reasons, Cowen has relied heavily on Coughlan and Lenihan and is fiercely loyal and secondly we face a by-election for a vacant FF seat in her local constituency of Donegal South – West.
It is plausible to have her portfolio moved on but I doubt for a second she will be the ‘fall-guy’ for the result and the main embarrassment of demotion will fall on her. Why are we indulging in the speculation?
Well hopefully, if the job is done right, to distract from the point above – that 80 losses was a top-end estimate of how bad it could get. And it got there. Backbenchers, for they are the ones who will force a General Election, are preparing to revolt according to the Examiner.
Unnamed backbenchers have begun briefing against Cowen and though not yet ready to go public seem to be in the right frame of mind to be pushed over the edge.
Another influential backbencher said a large number of FF TDs were desperate to be rid of Mr Cowen as they could not stomach an election with him as leader, but were waiting for a serious minister to signal a challenge with the feeling the Taoiseach would not survive the tax and cut December budget. “The sooner he goes the better,” he said of Cowen. “What we need now is a government minister to stand up to Cowen, for the good of the country, and tell him to stand down,” he added. The deputy was joined by other FF backbenchers alarmed by the scale of the defeat in the triple Euro, local and Dáil by-election showdowns which saw vote share collapse to just 25% – inducing an air of crisis and panic in the party. TDs fear FF is facing meltdown as it absorbed council losses of 80 seats and it was confirmed it had no MEP in the capital as incumbent Eoin Ryan lost out to Socialist Joe Higgins.
So it doesn’t look good at all for Cowen as the story moves from the initial losses to the backlash from the scale of the defeat. Let us not forget they were beaten into fifth in Dublin, hammered in urban areas and saved by a loyal rural voter – less of whom are required for the same number of seats. They might spin that 80 is not 100 but nor is it 50 – the internal figure of significance. Falling so far short of 300 seats is a hammer blow to them – gene pool or no gene pool.
As the counts are now done, the liveblog will soon be closed. I want to thank Suzy, Alexia, Mark, Simon and Fergal for the hard work and everyone who provided priceless info for the entire weekend. Simon is discussing the liveblog over here – any thoughts and reflections would be great.
I would like to add on the question of FF’s capacity to persuade us to back Lisbon. Despite losing their seat, the SF vote actually increased in this election marginally to 12%. As such, 1 in 8 voters, largely opposed to a the Eurofederalist project, are now totally unrepresented in the Irish cohort of MEPs. In large part, this lack of proportionality reflects the growth in the number of 3-seaters. This is also an issue in Dail constituencies, claiming high profile victims like new MEP Joe Higgins. The system of amending electoral-boundaries and seat-numbers is open to abuse, and urgently needs to be removed from political-interference and devolved to an Electoral Commission, which should also clear up the continuing scandal of an electoral-register on which local-authorities preside over what amounts to 34 separate registers, often containing the same person in different local-authority areas. Until this election, I received 2 polling-cards (only one of which I used of cours) and the evidence is that this predicament has not yet been purged like the names of the dead by Dick Roche in 2007. Urgently, the system must be centralised, computerised, and linked to a unique PPS no. identifier.
The reshuffle plans suggest that Cowen has not learned anything about leadership from this election (Spending almost all of the count in Offaly was not exactly Napoleonic either). Demoting Coughlan without sacking her as Tanaiste is worse than doing nothing. It is dithering, and looks weak, as does kicking the reshuffle off to Autumn. Why not just appoint a “Commission on Reshuffling” and have them report back in November?
Quite apart from his qualities as Taoiseach, Cowen is stunningly untalented as a politician. He can’t bear it being thought that he does anything simply because the media or opposition said he should. But then after a few weeks dithering, he does does it anyway, thus netting demerits for weakness, stubborness and indecision, all at once.