Comments on: Who would lose out ? http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/who-would-lose-out/ Coverage of Irish Politics, News and Current Affairs Thu, 09 Feb 2012 09:23:31 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Irish Election » Who would Lose out 8? http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/who-would-lose-out/comment-page-1/#comment-118885 Irish Election » Who would Lose out 8? Mon, 18 May 2009 08:05:38 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=5565#comment-118885 [...] is the Eight in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much [...] [...] is the Eight in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much [...]

]]> By: Irish Election » Who would Lose out 7? http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/who-would-lose-out/comment-page-1/#comment-118828 Irish Election » Who would Lose out 7? Sun, 17 May 2009 08:14:47 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=5565#comment-118828 [...] is the Seventh in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much [...] [...] is the Seventh in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much [...]

]]> By: Irish Election » Who is going to lose out 6? you know like boy http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/who-would-lose-out/comment-page-1/#comment-118745 Irish Election » Who is going to lose out 6? you know like boy Fri, 15 May 2009 08:06:52 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=5565#comment-118745 [...] is the Sixth in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much [...] [...] is the Sixth in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much [...]

]]> By: Irish Election » Who would lose out 5? http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/who-would-lose-out/comment-page-1/#comment-118705 Irish Election » Who would lose out 5? Thu, 14 May 2009 08:43:18 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=5565#comment-118705 [...] is the fifth in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much [...] [...] is the fifth in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much [...]

]]> By: Irish Election » Who would lose out 4. http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/who-would-lose-out/comment-page-1/#comment-118654 Irish Election » Who would lose out 4. Wed, 13 May 2009 08:15:31 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=5565#comment-118654 [...] is the fourth in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much [...] [...] is the fourth in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much [...]

]]> By: Irish Election » Who Loses Out 3? http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/who-would-lose-out/comment-page-1/#comment-118600 Irish Election » Who Loses Out 3? Tue, 12 May 2009 06:53:53 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=5565#comment-118600 [...] Who would lose out ? [...] [...] Who would lose out ? [...]

]]> By: Stephen Spillane - Monday Links - 11/05/09 http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/who-would-lose-out/comment-page-1/#comment-118563 Stephen Spillane - Monday Links - 11/05/09 Mon, 11 May 2009 09:43:53 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=5565#comment-118563 [...] on Irish Election is looking at who could loose out with FF being so low in the polls. Part 1, Part [...] [...] on Irish Election is looking at who could loose out with FF being so low in the polls. Part 1, Part [...]

]]> By: Colm http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/who-would-lose-out/comment-page-1/#comment-118562 Colm Mon, 11 May 2009 08:58:46 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=5565#comment-118562 I just saw Dan's comment about Limerick East changing to a 4 seat. In that case it will most likely simply be Power to lose his seat and the other TDs retain their seats (assuming all 4 stand). I just saw Dan’s comment about Limerick East changing to a 4 seat. In that case it will most likely simply be Power to lose his seat and the other TDs retain their seats (assuming all 4 stand).

]]> By: Irish Election » Who would lose out 2? http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/who-would-lose-out/comment-page-1/#comment-118560 Irish Election » Who would lose out 2? Mon, 11 May 2009 08:04:40 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=5565#comment-118560 [...] Who would lose out ? [...] [...] Who would lose out ? [...]

]]> By: Colm http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/who-would-lose-out/comment-page-1/#comment-118559 Colm Mon, 11 May 2009 07:09:33 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=5565#comment-118559 I know this is a hypothetical if an election was held tomorrow post but I think if could also be applied to the upcoming European elections. Apologies if you planned to so a separate post for these elections Dublin Loses a seat going from 4 to 3. Proinsias de Rossa and Gay Mitchell have huge personal votes and the swing to the opposition should see them hold their seats. Patricia McKenna will split the green vote and finish Deirdre de Burca’s chances of winning. Patricia in turn will see the lunatic element of her vote split by Caroline Simons. The th The third seat will be fought out between Mary Lou McDonald and Joe Higgins with Fianna Fail slipping away after a couple of counts. My bet if Mary Lou will hold on because the swing to Labour will see Proinsais take many of the votes Joe needs. Result FG 1, Lab 1, SF 1 East: 3 seats. Last time FG 2 FF 1. I actually think FG will struggle to hold their 2 seats. Mairead McGuinness has performed well over her time in office and will top the poll coming in on the first count. With Avril Doyle stepping down the swing to FG will be offset by the “who???” factor around John Paul Phelan. Labour are also going to suffer from the “who???” factor as Peter Cassells has been replaced on the ticket by Nessa Childers. If Libertas have a right run at it they will split the opposition vote and could let Liam Aylward slip through to hold his seat. Result is FG 1 FF 1 and the third seat between FG, Lab and Libertas. North West: 3 seats. The swing to the opposition will see Jim Higgins retain his seat with ease. Also there is a strong FF/republican vote in this area that will hold FF up. The introduction of Pat the Cope who has a personal following and name recognition and should see them keep their seat. Marian Harkin and Declan Ganley will split the independent/lunatic vote and the final seat will be a dog fight between them and I suspect Ganley will lose out because in the North West the conspiracy theories revolve around UK military intelligence and the HSE rather than faceless EU bureaucrats and Ganley’s accent, business connections and wealth will drag him down. Result: FG 1 FF 1 Ind 1 South: 3 seats: FG have lost Simon Covney and the sitting Colm Burke has little or no profile. However Sean Kelly does have a profile. Also Labour are running a poster campaign that just says “Kelly, put a Tipp/Mid west man in Europe”. That could backfire as people won’t know which Kelly they are referring to. I would expect Sean Kelly to top the poll. Kathy Sinnott will limp over the line thanks to name recognition more than anything. She has not been impressive in her time in Europe as she has spent most of her time jumping on and off bandwagons or defending MEP expenses. However she will pick up 2nd and 3rd preferences from eliminated candidates and will stumble over the line. After that it could be a real dog fight. Brian Crowley topped the poll last time but will see his vote collapse as the public reject FF. His problem will then be finding transfers as Ned O’Keefe will be lucky to survive the first 2 counts. Treasa Ferris and Dan Boyle both have name recognition while Alan Kelly is running an impressive campaign (so far). If I was a gambling man I would put money on the shock of the election being Crowley to lose his seat. To who is really hard to call right now. Result FG 1, Ind 1, Lab/SF/Gr 1 I know this is a hypothetical if an election was held tomorrow post but I think if could also be applied to the upcoming European elections. Apologies if you planned to so a separate post for these elections

Dublin
Loses a seat going from 4 to 3. Proinsias de Rossa and Gay Mitchell have huge personal votes and the swing to the opposition should see them hold their seats. Patricia McKenna will split the green vote and finish Deirdre de Burca’s chances of winning. Patricia in turn will see the lunatic element of her vote split by Caroline Simons. The th The third seat will be fought out between Mary Lou McDonald and Joe Higgins with Fianna Fail slipping away after a couple of counts. My bet if Mary Lou will hold on because the swing to Labour will see Proinsais take many of the votes Joe needs.

Result FG 1, Lab 1, SF 1

East:
3 seats. Last time FG 2 FF 1. I actually think FG will struggle to hold their 2 seats. Mairead McGuinness has performed well over her time in office and will top the poll coming in on the first count. With Avril Doyle stepping down the swing to FG will be offset by the “who???” factor around John Paul Phelan. Labour are also going to suffer from the “who???” factor as Peter Cassells has been replaced on the ticket by Nessa Childers. If Libertas have a right run at it they will split the opposition vote and could let Liam Aylward slip through to hold his seat.

Result is FG 1 FF 1 and the third seat between FG, Lab and Libertas.

North West:
3 seats. The swing to the opposition will see Jim Higgins retain his seat with ease. Also there is a strong FF/republican vote in this area that will hold FF up. The introduction of Pat the Cope who has a personal following and name recognition and should see them keep their seat. Marian Harkin and Declan Ganley will split the independent/lunatic vote and the final seat will be a dog fight between them and I suspect Ganley will lose out because in the North West the conspiracy theories revolve around UK military intelligence and the HSE rather than faceless EU bureaucrats and Ganley’s accent, business connections and wealth will drag him down.

Result: FG 1 FF 1 Ind 1

South:
3 seats: FG have lost Simon Covney and the sitting Colm Burke has little or no profile. However Sean Kelly does have a profile. Also Labour are running a poster campaign that just says “Kelly, put a Tipp/Mid west man in Europe”. That could backfire as people won’t know which Kelly they are referring to. I would expect Sean Kelly to top the poll. Kathy Sinnott will limp over the line thanks to name recognition more than anything. She has not been impressive in her time in Europe as she has spent most of her time jumping on and off bandwagons or defending MEP expenses. However she will pick up 2nd and 3rd preferences from eliminated candidates and will stumble over the line. After that it could be a real dog fight. Brian Crowley topped the poll last time but will see his vote collapse as the public reject FF. His problem will then be finding transfers as Ned O’Keefe will be lucky to survive the first 2 counts. Treasa Ferris and Dan Boyle both have name recognition while Alan Kelly is running an impressive campaign (so far). If I was a gambling man I would put money on the shock of the election being Crowley to lose his seat. To who is really hard to call right now.

Result FG 1, Ind 1, Lab/SF/Gr 1

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