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Who would lose out ?

Read more about: Clare, Limerick East, Limerick West, Tipperary North, Tipperary South, Who Would lose out     Print This Post

Many of the polls have showen a big slump in Fianna Failure and rises for Labour and Fine Gael. But if an election was called tomorrow who would lose out and who would win?

I am going to try and do a review of all the constiuencies. If people have Views on anyone please drop us a comment or a email. thedossingtimes at gmail.com will get me.

First Up for no reason other then it is the best constiuency;

North Tipperary

In the last election the top 5 were

* Michael Lowry1 Snr    Non party/Independent Lozenge   12,919   29.08%   1.16   1   Made Quota   1
§ Noel J Coonan    Fine Gael Lozenge   7,061   15.89%   0.64   6   Made Quota   2
* Maire Hoctor    Fianna Fail Lozenge   7,374   16.60%   0.66   6   Elected   3

* Michael Smith1    Fianna Fail Lozenge   7,871   17.72%   0.71   (6)   Not Elected    
§ Kathleen O’Meara    Labour Lozenge   4,561   10.27%   0.41   (5)   Eliminated  

It is unlikely that Lowry will not get elected. His local vote is still strong and he is still liked in the constiuency. He may however see a small drop in support but not enough to not top the poll.

Coonan is also safe in his seat. A decent worker with a good geograpical base in Templemore. Also bhouyed up by FG general rise.

This beings us to the last seat. Which will be probably between Marie Hoctor and Labours Alan Kelly. Both canidates are in the West of the constiuency so will be after the same geographical vote. With the troubles with Nenagh Hosipeal and the general anti-FF vibe. This seat is likely to go to Labour. Unless Fianna Failure can get someone to come in around Michael Smiths old stomping ground and hoover up some votes. But I think Labour has this. However if FF can manage their vote well they might hold on to it.

Verdict: 1Ind 1 FG 1 Lab

Tipperary South

Last time out:

* Tom Hayes    Fine Gael Lozenge   8,200   21.14%   0.85   5   Made Quota   1
  Mattie McGrath    Fianna Fail Lozenge   7,608   19.62%   0.78   6   Made Quota   2
§ Dr Martin Mansergh    Fianna Fail Lozenge   6,110   15.75%   0.63   8   Elected   3

* Seamus Healy    Non party/Independent Lozenge   5,707   14.72%   0.59   (8)   Not Elected    
  Siobhan Ambrose    Fianna Fail Lozenge   4,286   11.05%   0.44   (5)   Eliminated    
 
Phil Prendergast    Labour Lozenge   3,400   8.77%   0.35   (4)   Eliminated

This is an interesting seat. I think Martin Mansergh is very vunerable here. While a fairly big name I think he has suffered a bit in recent months. Seamus Healy who he piped to the post with Mattie McGrath’s transfers will probably run again. With the downturn of FF I doubt he will get enough to be still in the fight. The one challange to Seamus Healy would be Phil Prendergast. A Labour senator she might benefit from an increase Labour vote and her increased profile. Also I think the independents will suffer in this election. With national issues overcoming the concerns of local. So I think Labour might just take it but very very close.

Verdict: 1 FG 1 FF 1 Lab

Clare

Last time out:

§ Timmy Dooley    Fianna Fail Lozenge   10,791   19.14%   0.96   4   Made Quota   1
* Tony Killeen    Fianna Fail Lozenge   8,321   14.76%   0.74   7   Made Quota   2
* Pat Breen    Fine Gael Lozenge   7,036   12.48%   0.62   8   Made Quota   3
  Joe Carey    Fine Gael Lozenge   5,818   10.32%   0.52   9   Elected   4

* James Breen    Non party/Independent Lozenge   5,218   9.25%   0.46   (6)   Eliminated    
§ Brendan Daly    Fianna Fail Lozenge   5,712   10.13%   0.51   (6)   Eliminated    
  Madeleine Taylor Quinn    Fine Gael Lozenge   3,592   6.37%   0.32   (5)   Eliminated    
 

This is quiet an even battle with FG and FF and independents. However with FF vote falling I think Timmy Dooley is in trouble which is a big worry for FF. They would consider themselves the owner of 3 seats in Clare so to be struggling for 2 says alot. The question is can FG mount a strong case for a third seat? If they have visions of a majority then they have to be thinking about it.   I think they might just have a chance of it if they run a strong campaign here. But excellent vote management would be needed.

Verdict: 1FF 3FG

Limerick East:

Last time out:

* Willie O’Dea    Fianna Fail Lozenge   19,082   38.65%   2.32   1   Made Quota   1
* Peter Power    Fianna Fail Lozenge   3,569   7.23%   0.43   2   Made Quota   2
* Michael Noonan3    Fine Gael Lozenge   7,507   15.20%   0.91   2   Made Quota   3
* Jan O’Sullivan    Labour Lozenge   5,098   10.33%   0.62   8   Made Quota   4
  Kieran O’Donnell    Fine Gael Lozenge   5,094   10.32%   0.62   8   Elected   5

* Tim O’Malley    Progressive Democrats Lozenge   3,354   6.79%   0.41   (8)   Not Elected    
  Noreen Ryan    Fianna Fail Lozenge   1,391   2.82%   0.17   (7)   Eliminated

O’Dea country is relling from the closure of Dell and FF are going to take the fall for it. Willie will not get Peter Power in. The sizeable PD vote could possibly fall behind FG here if they run a third canidate and put them over the top for a third seat. With good vote management this should be an extra seat for FG.

Update: As Dan pointed out in comments. This is now a 4 seater. So this means peter power gone and no other change. 

Verdict: 1FF 2 FG 1 Lab

Limerick West:

Last time out:

Candidate   Party   1st Pref Share Quota   Count Status Seat

  Niall Collins    Fianna Fail Lozenge   10,396   25.71%   1.03   1   Made Quota   1
* John Cregan1    Fianna Fail Lozenge   8,701   21.52%   0.86   3   Made Quota   2
* Dan Neville    Fine Gael Lozenge   8,314   20.56%   0.82   3   Elected   3

§ Michael Finucane2    Fine Gael Lozenge   7,839   19.39%   0.78   (3)   Not Elected    
  James Heffernan    Labour Lozenge   2,277   5.63%   0.23   (2)   Eliminated  

More plunder for FG here. They have taken 2 seats here before and with FF fortunes in the dumps they should pick up the second seat again. At whos expense is the question.

Verdict: 2FG 1FF

So that means that the changes thus far are:

Fine Gael on 9 +2

Fianna Failure on 4 -5

Labour 3 +2

Ind 1 -

All figures from the excellent Electionsireland.org

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15 Responses to “Who would lose out ?”

  1. # Comment by Will May 8th, 2009 17:05

    Simon,
    Your dreaming if you think FF can’t hold on to one seat in Tipp North. They just have to accept running a very weak second candidate and put the faithful out to vote for Hoctor. I agree with your Lowry and Mansergh assessment. Healy is strong though, and I would not be surprised to see him regain his seat. Also your assessment of the Independents challenge goes against current opinion polls and their poor performance last time.

  2. # Comment by Dan Sullivan May 8th, 2009 18:05

    Limerick East or city as it is now has dropped to 4 seats and with that I think that Power’s seat would have been toast anyway, now with the poll collapse it is definitely gone. I would contend that both Lab and FG should run extra candidates to cut into Willie’s big pile as he doesn’t need to work nearly as hard come the campaign as his vote would suggest. He is able to coast home on the work he does between polls.

    For Limerick West now County, I would expect Patrick O’Donovan to be on the FG ticket next time out. If they could find someone from the east of the county (the castleconnell and environs suburban area) should Dan Neville step down then that’s where the 2nd seat comes from.

  3. # Comment by VincentH May 9th, 2009 09:05

    In South Tipp, 1 ff, 1 fg, and a kind of republican labour, the Treacy seat. If Mansergh can nail that vote he will be safe enough. I think he has it so far. The mistake that Labour central office made a few years ago when they tried to bungee jump into the seat was that it is not really a Labour seat. It was a Treacy seat. But it is not in the gift or current curse of FF by any stretch.

  4. # Comment by WorldbyStorm May 9th, 2009 14:05

    “First Up for no reason other then it is the best constiuency;” :)

  5. # Comment by Colm May 10th, 2009 22:05

    Hoctor is increasingly disliked in Tipp North. It is likely that by the next election all hospitals in Tipperary (north and south) will have been downgraded. There is no cancer treatment services left in the county and the current plan is to stop A&E and maternity by 2010. Clonmel, Cashel, and Nenagh hospitals will all be downgraded and when someone dies (as they will) because they are 90 minutes from a Maternity or A&E and it is 5:05pm Hoctor is finished politically. If Kelly runs the publicity he gets from the European election will see him take that seat.

    My guess: FG 1, Ind 1, Lab 1

    The same actually goes in South Tipp. Mansergh is not popular. He was elected because people thought he was an intellectual and a certain for high office. Since then his performances in the media have been cringeworthy (e.g. the infamous BBC interview). He is also not doing the whole clinic, funeral etc thing. In fact there is a growing realisiation among the people of South Tipp that electing him ahead of Healy was a mistake as at least Healy worked for the county. Mansergh’s seat will go to Healy.

    Then believe it or not I think McGrath is also vunerable. He is doing his best to be the opposition within government but there is a HUGE anti fianna Fail backlash in the county. South Tipp has seen a lot of company closures. One more high profile one (MS&D, Medite, Abbot, Boston Sci)between now and the election and that could tip the feeling in the county to out right hostility towards FF. Combine that with the downgrade of Clonmel hospital and I think Phil Prendergast will get a lot of Healy’s and Hayes’ transfers while McGrath will have nothing from a decimated Mansergh.

    My guess: FG 1, Ind 1, Lab 1.

    In Clare the Ennis Hospital issue will see FF lose a seat to James Breen (if he runs). FF will hold one seat but only just. FG will be in the scrap for the last seat but the Mad Tailor from Quinn isn’t going to get it. Perhaps if they can get a new face they can challenge for the remaining FF seat but I think FF vote management will see them hold on.

    My Guess: FG 2, FF 1, Ind 1

    Limerick East:
    Willie will hold his seat simply because he works his ass off and has a loyal following. However as the closure of Dell and it’s associated companies puts around 10,000 on the dole I don’t think that Power has a chance as O’Dea’s vote will plummet and while enough to get Willie in it won’t save Power. Also the loyal O’Dea support isn’t a FF vote so the transfers will go everywhere. There are rumours of Noonan retiring but no doubt he will come under pressure to stay one more election. Jan will hold her seat and O’Donnell will come in on the FG tide (although he is seen as the invisible man in Limerick). My bet would be watch Diarmuid Scully. He is popular around Limerick and if he does well in the local elections he could be the leading candidate to take Power’s seat mainly because there is no other candidate with a profile from any other party.

    My Guess: FG 3, FF 1, Lab 1

  6. # Comment by Colm May 11th, 2009 08:05

    I know this is a hypothetical if an election was held tomorrow post but I think if could also be applied to the upcoming European elections. Apologies if you planned to so a separate post for these elections

    Dublin
    Loses a seat going from 4 to 3. Proinsias de Rossa and Gay Mitchell have huge personal votes and the swing to the opposition should see them hold their seats. Patricia McKenna will split the green vote and finish Deirdre de Burca’s chances of winning. Patricia in turn will see the lunatic element of her vote split by Caroline Simons. The th The third seat will be fought out between Mary Lou McDonald and Joe Higgins with Fianna Fail slipping away after a couple of counts. My bet if Mary Lou will hold on because the swing to Labour will see Proinsais take many of the votes Joe needs.

    Result FG 1, Lab 1, SF 1

    East:
    3 seats. Last time FG 2 FF 1. I actually think FG will struggle to hold their 2 seats. Mairead McGuinness has performed well over her time in office and will top the poll coming in on the first count. With Avril Doyle stepping down the swing to FG will be offset by the “who???” factor around John Paul Phelan. Labour are also going to suffer from the “who???” factor as Peter Cassells has been replaced on the ticket by Nessa Childers. If Libertas have a right run at it they will split the opposition vote and could let Liam Aylward slip through to hold his seat.

    Result is FG 1 FF 1 and the third seat between FG, Lab and Libertas.

    North West:
    3 seats. The swing to the opposition will see Jim Higgins retain his seat with ease. Also there is a strong FF/republican vote in this area that will hold FF up. The introduction of Pat the Cope who has a personal following and name recognition and should see them keep their seat. Marian Harkin and Declan Ganley will split the independent/lunatic vote and the final seat will be a dog fight between them and I suspect Ganley will lose out because in the North West the conspiracy theories revolve around UK military intelligence and the HSE rather than faceless EU bureaucrats and Ganley’s accent, business connections and wealth will drag him down.

    Result: FG 1 FF 1 Ind 1

    South:
    3 seats: FG have lost Simon Covney and the sitting Colm Burke has little or no profile. However Sean Kelly does have a profile. Also Labour are running a poster campaign that just says “Kelly, put a Tipp/Mid west man in Europe”. That could backfire as people won’t know which Kelly they are referring to. I would expect Sean Kelly to top the poll. Kathy Sinnott will limp over the line thanks to name recognition more than anything. She has not been impressive in her time in Europe as she has spent most of her time jumping on and off bandwagons or defending MEP expenses. However she will pick up 2nd and 3rd preferences from eliminated candidates and will stumble over the line. After that it could be a real dog fight. Brian Crowley topped the poll last time but will see his vote collapse as the public reject FF. His problem will then be finding transfers as Ned O’Keefe will be lucky to survive the first 2 counts. Treasa Ferris and Dan Boyle both have name recognition while Alan Kelly is running an impressive campaign (so far). If I was a gambling man I would put money on the shock of the election being Crowley to lose his seat. To who is really hard to call right now.

    Result FG 1, Ind 1, Lab/SF/Gr 1

  7. # Comment by Colm May 11th, 2009 09:05

    I just saw Dan’s comment about Limerick East changing to a 4 seat. In that case it will most likely simply be Power to lose his seat and the other TDs retain their seats (assuming all 4 stand).

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