Who would lose out ?
Many of the polls have showen a big slump in Fianna Failure and rises for Labour and Fine Gael. But if an election was called tomorrow who would lose out and who would win?
I am going to try and do a review of all the constiuencies. If people have Views on anyone please drop us a comment or a email. thedossingtimes at gmail.com will get me.
First Up for no reason other then it is the best constiuency;
In the last election the top 5 were
|*||Michael Lowry1 Snr||12,919||29.08%||1.16||1||Made Quota||1|
|§||Noel J Coonan||7,061||15.89%||0.64||6||Made Quota||2|
|*||Michael Smith1||7,871||17.72%||0.71||(6)||Not Elected|
It is unlikely that Lowry will not get elected. His local vote is still strong and he is still liked in the constiuency. He may however see a small drop in support but not enough to not top the poll.
Coonan is also safe in his seat. A decent worker with a good geograpical base in Templemore. Also bhouyed up by FG general rise.
This beings us to the last seat. Which will be probably between Marie Hoctor and Labours Alan Kelly. Both canidates are in the West of the constiuency so will be after the same geographical vote. With the troubles with Nenagh Hosipeal and the general anti-FF vibe. This seat is likely to go to Labour. Unless Fianna Failure can get someone to come in around Michael Smiths old stomping ground and hoover up some votes. But I think Labour has this. However if FF can manage their vote well they might hold on to it.
Verdict: 1Ind 1 FG 1 Lab
Last time out:
|*||Tom Hayes||8,200||21.14%||0.85||5||Made Quota||1|
|Mattie McGrath||7,608||19.62%||0.78||6||Made Quota||2|
|§||Dr Martin Mansergh||6,110||15.75%||0.63||8||Elected||3|
|*||Seamus Healy||5,707||14.72%||0.59||(8)||Not Elected|
This is an interesting seat. I think Martin Mansergh is very vunerable here. While a fairly big name I think he has suffered a bit in recent months. Seamus Healy who he piped to the post with Mattie McGrath’s transfers will probably run again. With the downturn of FF I doubt he will get enough to be still in the fight. The one challange to Seamus Healy would be Phil Prendergast. A Labour senator she might benefit from an increase Labour vote and her increased profile. Also I think the independents will suffer in this election. With national issues overcoming the concerns of local. So I think Labour might just take it but very very close.
Verdict: 1 FG 1 FF 1 Lab
Last time out:
|§||Timmy Dooley||10,791||19.14%||0.96||4||Made Quota||1|
|*||Tony Killeen||8,321||14.76%||0.74||7||Made Quota||2|
|*||Pat Breen||7,036||12.48%||0.62||8||Made Quota||3|
|Madeleine Taylor Quinn||3,592||6.37%||0.32||(5)||Eliminated|
This is quiet an even battle with FG and FF and independents. However with FF vote falling I think Timmy Dooley is in trouble which is a big worry for FF. They would consider themselves the owner of 3 seats in Clare so to be struggling for 2 says alot. The question is can FG mount a strong case for a third seat? If they have visions of a majority then they have to be thinking about it. I think they might just have a chance of it if they run a strong campaign here. But excellent vote management would be needed.
Verdict: 1FF 3FG
Last time out:
|*||Willie O’Dea||19,082||38.65%||2.32||1||Made Quota||1|
|*||Peter Power||3,569||7.23%||0.43||2||Made Quota||2|
|*||Michael Noonan3||7,507||15.20%||0.91||2||Made Quota||3|
|*||Jan O’Sullivan||5,098||10.33%||0.62||8||Made Quota||4|
|*||Tim O’Malley||3,354||6.79%||0.41||(8)||Not Elected|
O’Dea country is relling from the closure of Dell and FF are going to take the fall for it. Willie will not get Peter Power in. The sizeable PD vote could possibly fall behind FG here if they run a third canidate and put them over the top for a third seat. With good vote management this should be an extra seat for FG.
Update: As Dan pointed out in comments. This is now a 4 seater. So this means peter power gone and no other change.
Verdict: 1FF 2 FG 1 Lab
Last time out:
|Niall Collins||10,396||25.71%||1.03||1||Made Quota||1|
|*||John Cregan1||8,701||21.52%||0.86||3||Made Quota||2|
|§||Michael Finucane2||7,839||19.39%||0.78||(3)||Not Elected|
More plunder for FG here. They have taken 2 seats here before and with FF fortunes in the dumps they should pick up the second seat again. At whos expense is the question.
Verdict: 2FG 1FF
So that means that the changes thus far are:
Fine Gael on 9 +2
Fianna Failure on 4 -5
Labour 3 +2
Ind 1 -
All figures from the excellent Electionsireland.org