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Who would Lose out 8?

Read more about: Dublin Central, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin North, Dublin North Central, Dublin North East, Dublin North West, Dublin South West, Who Would lose out     Print This Post

This is the Eight and last in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much  local polling to go on this is entirely my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.

Dublin South West


* Conor Lenihan    Fianna Fail Lozenge    8,542    20.51%    1.03    1      Made Quota      1
  Brian Hayes    Fine Gael Lozenge    8,346    20.04%    1.00    1      Made Quota      2
* Pat Rabbitte    Labour Lozenge    8,325    19.99%    1.00    2      Made Quota     3
* Charlie O’Connor    Fianna Fail Lozenge    7,813    18.76%    0.94    6      Made Quota      4

* Sean Crowe    Sinn Fein Lozenge    5,066    12.16%    0.61    (6)      Not Elected       
  Elizabeth Davidson    Green/Comhaontas Glas Lozenge    1,546    3.71%    0.19    (6)      Not Elected       


In 2002 Sean Crowe topped the poll here. While last time out he lost out to Fianna Fail. Last time out 2 candidates got elected on the first count while Pat Rabbitte the then leader of Labour needed 6 votes to get the quota. This time out I think that FF will not get in on the first count while FG and Labour should be safe enough. Sinn Fein should take a seat here as well. While Fine Gael or Labour might be tempted to run a second candidate here. I think FF can take at least one seat. The question is who? It will be a dog fight between Charlie O’Connor and Conor Lenihan. 

Verdict: 1FF 1FG 1 Lab 1 SF.

Dublin Mid-West

* John Curran3    Fianna Fail Lozenge    8,650    23.17%    1.16    1      Made Quota      1
* Paul Gogarty    Green/Comhaontas Glas Lozenge    4,043    10.83%    0.54    6      Made Quota      2
* Mary Harney    Progressive Democrats Lozenge    4,663    12.49%    0.62    6      Made Quota      3
  Joanna Tuffy    Labour Lozenge    4,075    10.91%    0.55    6      Elected      4

  Frances Fitzgerald    Fine Gael Lozenge    4,480    12.00%    0.60    (6)      Not Elected       
  Luke Moriarty    Fianna Fail Lozenge    3,671    9.83%    0.49    (5)      Eliminated  






With Mary Harney unlikely to be standing again this opens up a seat here for an obvious Fine Gael gain. Whether or not there is the possibility for 2 seats remains to be seen. If they can target successfully they PD vote. They well see them polling very strongly but strong enough to unseat Fianna Fail? I am not sure. I think they will have enough to keep the seat.  The other question is how vulnerable is the Green seat here. It is certainly vulnerable to attacks from the left with Labour eating into their vote. But I think Paul Gogarty can hold on. As I don’t think Labour could serious mount an attempt on 2 seats here. But stranger things have happened. 

Verdict: 1 FF 1G 1FG 1 Lab

Dublin Central. 

* Bertie Ahern    Fianna Fail Lozenge    12,734    36.76%    1.84    1      Made Quota      1
* Tony Gregory    Non party/Independent Lozenge    4,649    13.42%    0.67    8      Made Quota      3
* Joe Costello    Labour Lozenge    4,353    12.57%    0.63    8      Made Quota      2
§ Cyprian Brady    Fianna Fail Lozenge    939    2.71%    0.14    8      Elected      4

  Paschal Donohoe    Fine Gael Lozenge    3,302    9.53%    0.48    (8)      Not Elected       
  Mary Lou McDonald    Sinn Fein Lozenge    3,182    9.19%    0.46    (7)      Eliminated       






Could it happen? Could Bertie Ahern lose his seat? Could Mary Lou finally get a seat in the Dail? Well anything is possible but I still think that Bertie is loved and well win if he runs. The question is can FF pull off another situation where someone polling 939 in the first count could win and take a seat. I sincerly doubt it. So that leaves 1 seat free. Also with the death of Tony Gregory what happens to his vote. Looking at where his vote was transferred in 2007 much of it went to Labour with about twice the amount that went to Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein at this stage believe that this seat is there’s by right. But I think that if Labour poll strongly in the by-election they well be tempted to run a second candidate in a general. While they are running the risk of splitting their vote I think they would be safe to try to ploy as at least one will get a seat.  Sinn Finn might think they will gain from a Fianna Fail fall but they receive just as much transfers from FF as Labour so I think they are not going to benefit greatly. With a labour bounce and Fine Gael polling strongly. I think Mary Lou is going to be staying in Europe. Bertie will top the poll one more time. 

Verdict: 1FF 1FG 2 Lab

Dublin North

  Michael Kennedy4    Fianna Fail Lozenge    10,869    19.89%    0.99    3      Made Quota      1
* Trevor Sargent    Green/Comhaontas Glas Lozenge    7,448    13.63%    0.68    8      Made Quota      2
  Darragh O’Brien    Fianna Fail Lozenge    7,055    12.91%    0.65    9      Made Quota      3
  Dr James Reilly    Fine Gael Lozenge    7,667    14.03%    0.70    10      Elected      4

  Brendan Ryan3    Labour Lozenge    5,256    9.62%    0.48    (10)      Not Elected       
  John O’Leary3    Fianna Fail Lozenge    5,074    9.29%    0.46    (8)      Eliminated       
  Clare Daly    Socialist Lozenge    4,872    8.92%    0.45    (7)      Eliminated  






As he is no longer the leader if the Green party I think Trevor Sargent might see a dip in his vote. But not enough to see himself home. He said that he would not lead the party into power with Fianna Fail and he more or less kept his word although taking a junior ministry. Like everywhere Fianna Fail is going to see a large drop in their vote with the likely beneficiaries being the Labour party. But one to watch out for is Clare Daly of the Socialist party. A possible dark horse to take the seat. They have been threatening for a while and may take a protest vote. If they fall off in the Fianna Fail vote is as large the polls are suggesting and with a transferphobic then I think both Fianna Fail seats are in danger.  In 2002 Clare Daly lost out by about 900 votes. This time out I don’t think she will. While Labour with a boost will take another seat off Fianna Fail. 

Verdict: 1FG 1Lab 1 Soc 1 Green

Dublin North Central


* Richard Bruton    Fine Gael Lozenge    9,303    25.55%    1.02    1      Made Quota      1
* Sean Haughey    Fianna Fail Lozenge    9,026    24.79%    0.99    3      Made Quota      2
* Finian McGrath    Non party/Independent Lozenge    5,169    14.19%    0.57    5      Made Quota      3

* Ivor Callely    Fianna Fail Lozenge    7,003    19.23%    0.77    (5)      Not Elected       
  Derek McDowell    Labour Lozenge    2,649    7.27%    0.29    (4)      Eliminated       




While the polls show Gilmore is the most popular leader in the country I am sure that Richard Bruton is the most popular politican. This will be reflected in a increase in his personnal vote and Fine Gael may be tempted to run a second canidate here. Sean Haughey should be safe enough here. Finian Mcgrath may see a drop in his vote and attacks from Labour but I think this constiuency will see not much change.

Verdict: 1FG 1FF 1 Ind

Dublin North East

* Tommy P Broughan    Labour Lozenge    5,294    15.16%    0.61    4      Made Quota      1
  Terence Flanagan    Fine Gael Lozenge    4,483    12.83%    0.51    4      Elected      2
* Michael Woods    Fianna Fail Lozenge    7,003    20.05%    0.80    4      Elected      3

* Martin Brady    Fianna Fail Lozenge    6,861    19.64%    0.79    (4)      Not Elected       
  Larry O’Toole    Sinn Fein Lozenge    4,661    13.34%    0.53    (3)      Eliminated       
  Brody Sweeney    Fine Gael Lozenge    3,529    10.10%    0.40    (2)      Eliminated       




Tommy Broughan is one of the most vocal Labour canidates and should see an increase in this vote. Sinn Fein will target this seat but I think that Labour’s rise will stem them and allow FF to hold on.

Verdict: 1Lab 1FG 1FF

Dublin North West

* Noel Ahern    Fianna Fail Lozenge    7,913    25.56%    1.02    1      Made Quota      1
* Roisin Shortall    Labour Lozenge    6,286    20.30%    0.81    3      Made Quota      2
* Pat Carey2    Fianna Fail Lozenge    7,211    23.29%    0.93    3      Made Quota      3

  Dessie Ellis    Sinn Fein Lozenge    4,873    15.74%    0.63    (3)      Not Elected       
  Dr Bill Tormey    Fine Gael Lozenge    3,083    9.96%    0.40    (2)      Eliminated  




This is a seat that Sinn Fein will target strongly hoping to gain from a fail for Fianna Fail. In the last election were FF transfers were used Labour benefitted more then Sinn Fein did but Sinn Fein benefited more then Fine Gael. If this is repeated in the next election. Sinn Fein should be able to capitalise.

Verdict: 1SF 1 FF 1Lab

And so we could to the end of our fantasy election series. This leaves the Dail in an interesting situation with Fine Gael dominating the Dail but not able to form a government without the Labour party. Of course my predictions could be totally wrong but I think it does give us an idea or what  shape a government formed in a new election might take. 

Fine Gael on 71 (+20)

Fianna Fail on 44 (-34)

Labour 29 (+9)

Sinn Fein 9 (+4)

Ind 6 (+1)

Greens 5 (-1)

Socialists 2 (+2)

I think the obvious coalition would be Fine Gael Labour. But Fine Gael, Sinn Fein greens has the seats but unlikely. Fianna Fail Labour Sinn Fein + ind is also possible but unprobable.

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7 Responses to “Who would Lose out 8?”

  1. # Comment by Gav May 18th, 2009 15:05

    Great series – I think there’s only generally one flaw with your logic, being that the anti-FF vibe will transfer into pro-FG sentiment. Realistically I can only see their vote getting divvied up between all other parties (in my own neck of the woods, Meath West, I’d think Joe Reilly from SF far more likely to steal Johnny Brady’s FF seat than Dominic Hannigan).

    Hopefully if I’m right we’d get what I’ve always wanted to see: a situation where only a Grand Coalition can provide the strengh in numbers needed for a secure government. Then FF and FG realise they have everything in common, merge, and beget a breakup into more fragmented parties actually built on political ideology.

  2. # Comment by Dan Sullivan May 18th, 2009 16:05

    I thought Hannigan ran in Meath East, in fact I just checked – he did run in Meath East. So yes Gav you’re 100% correct that Joe O’Reilly is more likely to take Johnny Brady’s seat than Hannigan but that also means the rest of what you wrote in coming from someone who didn’t read Simon’s posts properly.

  3. # Comment by simon May 18th, 2009 16:05

    It is all guess work really gav. And I don’t have enough local knowledge everywhere. So some predictions are more likely to be correct then others. The main reason for doing it was to see what the numbers would be like. 38% in the polls does not mean 38% of seats. It can be more or less.(71 is 42%) I think loking at it that FG might just be short of getting in without either Labour or Fianna Fail. Unless they are wiling to throw Sinn Fein a bone. But considering Enda is rulling out governing with the greens I think Enda is looking long term at Labour

  4. # Comment by Jer May 19th, 2009 09:05

    Enda will equally be mindful Simon that 30 odd Labour TDs will require a lot of cabinet posts. While a coalition with SF might n ot be his favourite he will now two things – that he can do a deal with them, that 10 odd SF TDs will require less cabinet posts than Labour.

    But maybe he worries that Labour need to be in so as to avoid FG carrying all the blame for hard choices.

    The advantage of having labour on the outside would be that it would prevent FF from being the main opposition. If FF get 40 odd and Labour have 30 odd then FF cant really be the opposition. It would do more damagae to FF to have Labour outside the govt.

  5. # Comment by Andrew May 19th, 2009 10:05

    I don’t think this should be done before the local elections. The Greens are running two excellent candidates for the Dublin Central wards, if one or both take a seat it utterly changes the predictions for the next GE.

  6. # Comment by Dan Sullivan May 19th, 2009 14:05

    Good man Andrew, chaos theory at work. If the Greens get someone elected to a Dublin city council ward it will game everything!

  7. # Comment by Gav Reilly Jun 10th, 2009 15:06

    Jesus, Dan, cheers for the extremely helpful feedback in an over-the-top dismissal just because I mixed up the names ‘Johnny Brady’ and ‘Thomas Byrne’.

    That said, I guess Thomas Byrne has surprised us all with how well he polled in the Ireland East election so he’s probably likely to hang in there now.