Who would Lose out 8?

This is the Eight and last in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much  local polling to go on this is entirely my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.

Dublin South West

 

*	Conor Lenihan				8,542		20.51%		1.03		1		Made Quota		1
	Brian Hayes				8,346		20.04%		1.00		1		Made Quota		2
*	Pat Rabbitte				8,325		19.99%		1.00		2		Made Quota		3
*	Charlie O’Connor				7,813		18.76%		0.94		6		Made Quota		4
*	Sean Crowe				5,066		12.16%		0.61		(6)		Not Elected
	Elizabeth Davidson				1,546		3.71%		0.19		(6)		Not Elected

 

In 2002 Sean Crowe topped the poll here. While last time out he lost out to Fianna Fail. Last time out 2 candidates got elected on the first count while Pat Rabbitte the then leader of Labour needed 6 votes to get the quota. This time out I think that FF will not get in on the first count while FG and Labour should be safe enough. Sinn Fein should take a seat here as well. While Fine Gael or Labour might be tempted to run a second candidate here. I think FF can take at least one seat. The question is who? It will be a dog fight between Charlie O’Connor and Conor Lenihan. 

Verdict: 1FF 1FG 1 Lab 1 SF.

Dublin Mid-West

*	John Curran3				8,650		23.17%		1.16		1		Made Quota		1
*	Paul Gogarty				4,043		10.83%		0.54		6		Made Quota		2
*	Mary Harney				4,663		12.49%		0.62		6		Made Quota		3
	Joanna Tuffy				4,075		10.91%		0.55		6		Elected		4
	Frances Fitzgerald				4,480		12.00%		0.60		(6)		Not Elected
	Luke Moriarty				3,671		9.83%		0.49		(5)		Eliminated

 

 

 

 

 

With Mary Harney unlikely to be standing again this opens up a seat here for an obvious Fine Gael gain. Whether or not there is the possibility for 2 seats remains to be seen. If they can target successfully they PD vote. They well see them polling very strongly but strong enough to unseat Fianna Fail? I am not sure. I think they will have enough to keep the seat.  The other question is how vulnerable is the Green seat here. It is certainly vulnerable to attacks from the left with Labour eating into their vote. But I think Paul Gogarty can hold on. As I don’t think Labour could serious mount an attempt on 2 seats here. But stranger things have happened. 

Verdict: 1 FF 1G 1FG 1 Lab

Dublin Central. 

*	Bertie Ahern				12,734		36.76%		1.84		1		Made Quota		1
*	Tony Gregory				4,649		13.42%		0.67		8		Made Quota		3
*	Joe Costello				4,353		12.57%		0.63		8		Made Quota		2
§	Cyprian Brady				939		2.71%		0.14		8		Elected		4
	Paschal Donohoe				3,302		9.53%		0.48		(8)		Not Elected
	Mary Lou McDonald				3,182		9.19%		0.46		(7)		Eliminated

 

 

 

 

 

Could it happen? Could Bertie Ahern lose his seat? Could Mary Lou finally get a seat in the Dail? Well anything is possible but I still think that Bertie is loved and well win if he runs. The question is can FF pull off another situation where someone polling 939 in the first count could win and take a seat. I sincerly doubt it. So that leaves 1 seat free. Also with the death of Tony Gregory what happens to his vote. Looking at where his vote was transferred in 2007 much of it went to Labour with about twice the amount that went to Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein at this stage believe that this seat is there’s by right. But I think that if Labour poll strongly in the by-election they well be tempted to run a second candidate in a general. While they are running the risk of splitting their vote I think they would be safe to try to ploy as at least one will get a seat.  Sinn Finn might think they will gain from a Fianna Fail fall but they receive just as much transfers from FF as Labour so I think they are not going to benefit greatly. With a labour bounce and Fine Gael polling strongly. I think Mary Lou is going to be staying in Europe. Bertie will top the poll one more time. 

Verdict: 1FF 1FG 2 Lab

Dublin North

	Michael Kennedy4				10,869		19.89%		0.99		3		Made Quota		1
*	Trevor Sargent				7,448		13.63%		0.68		8		Made Quota		2
	Darragh O’Brien				7,055		12.91%		0.65		9		Made Quota		3
	Dr James Reilly				7,667		14.03%		0.70		10		Elected		4
	Brendan Ryan3				5,256		9.62%		0.48		(10)		Not Elected
	John O’Leary3				5,074		9.29%		0.46		(8)		Eliminated
	Clare Daly				4,872		8.92%		0.45		(7)		Eliminated

 

 

 

 

 

As he is no longer the leader if the Green party I think Trevor Sargent might see a dip in his vote. But not enough to see himself home. He said that he would not lead the party into power with Fianna Fail and he more or less kept his word although taking a junior ministry. Like everywhere Fianna Fail is going to see a large drop in their vote with the likely beneficiaries being the Labour party. But one to watch out for is Clare Daly of the Socialist party. A possible dark horse to take the seat. They have been threatening for a while and may take a protest vote. If they fall off in the Fianna Fail vote is as large the polls are suggesting and with a transferphobic then I think both Fianna Fail seats are in danger.  In 2002 Clare Daly lost out by about 900 votes. This time out I don’t think she will. While Labour with a boost will take another seat off Fianna Fail. 

Verdict: 1FG 1Lab 1 Soc 1 Green

Dublin North Central

 

*	Richard Bruton				9,303		25.55%		1.02		1		Made Quota		1
*	Sean Haughey				9,026		24.79%		0.99		3		Made Quota		2
*	Finian McGrath				5,169		14.19%		0.57		5		Made Quota		3
*	Ivor Callely				7,003		19.23%		0.77		(5)		Not Elected
	Derek McDowell				2,649		7.27%		0.29		(4)		Eliminated

 

 

 

While the polls show Gilmore is the most popular leader in the country I am sure that Richard Bruton is the most popular politican. This will be reflected in a increase in his personnal vote and Fine Gael may be tempted to run a second canidate here. Sean Haughey should be safe enough here. Finian Mcgrath may see a drop in his vote and attacks from Labour but I think this constiuency will see not much change.

Verdict: 1FG 1FF 1 Ind

Dublin North East

*	Tommy P Broughan				5,294		15.16%		0.61		4		Made Quota		1
	Terence Flanagan				4,483		12.83%		0.51		4		Elected		2
*	Michael Woods				7,003		20.05%		0.80		4		Elected		3
*	Martin Brady				6,861		19.64%		0.79		(4)		Not Elected
	Larry O’Toole				4,661		13.34%		0.53		(3)		Eliminated
	Brody Sweeney				3,529		10.10%		0.40		(2)		Eliminated

 

 

 

Tommy Broughan is one of the most vocal Labour canidates and should see an increase in this vote. Sinn Fein will target this seat but I think that Labour’s rise will stem them and allow FF to hold on.

Verdict: 1Lab 1FG 1FF

Dublin North West

*	Noel Ahern				7,913		25.56%		1.02		1		Made Quota		1
*	Roisin Shortall				6,286		20.30%		0.81		3		Made Quota		2
*	Pat Carey2				7,211		23.29%		0.93		3		Made Quota		3
	Dessie Ellis				4,873		15.74%		0.63		(3)		Not Elected
	Dr Bill Tormey				3,083		9.96%		0.40		(2)		Eliminated

 

 

 

This is a seat that Sinn Fein will target strongly hoping to gain from a fail for Fianna Fail. In the last election were FF transfers were used Labour benefitted more then Sinn Fein did but Sinn Fein benefited more then Fine Gael. If this is repeated in the next election. Sinn Fein should be able to capitalise.

Verdict: 1SF 1 FF 1Lab

And so we could to the end of our fantasy election series. This leaves the Dail in an interesting situation with Fine Gael dominating the Dail but not able to form a government without the Labour party. Of course my predictions could be totally wrong but I think it does give us an idea or what  shape a government formed in a new election might take. 

Fine Gael on 71 (+20)

Fianna Fail on 44 (-34)

Labour 29 (+9)

Sinn Fein 9 (+4)

Ind 6 (+1)

Greens 5 (-1)

Socialists 2 (+2)

I think the obvious coalition would be Fine Gael Labour. But Fine Gael, Sinn Fein greens has the seats but unlikely. Fianna Fail Labour Sinn Fein + ind is also possible but unprobable.