Who would Lose out 7?
This is the Seventh in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much local polling to go on this is entirely my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.
|*||Mary Hanafin||11,884||20.24%||1.21||1||Made Quota||1|
|*||Barry Andrews||8,587||14.63%||0.88||2||Made Quota||2|
|*||Eamon Gilmore||7,127||12.14%||0.73||7||Made Quota||3|
|Sean Barrett1||5,361||9.13%||0.55||9||Made Quota||4|
|*||Ciaran Cuffe||4,534||7.72%||0.46||10||Made Quota||5|
|Richard Boyd Barrett||5,233||8.91%||0.53||(10)||Not Elected|
This is dropping from a 5 seater to a 4 seater which is going to render Ciaran Cuffe gone I feel, but also the Fianna Fail vote is going to fall. Another factor is the Fiona O’Malley PD vote that is gone. Last time out Richard Boyd Barrett polled very strongly and with a general shift to the left might benefit him. Eamon Gilmore the countries most popular leader is going to top the poll here and I suspect that they will run two candidates here. There used to be 2 left seats here (Lab and DL) and I think even with a fall in the number of seats that there is still 2 here. So who is going to suffer? One I think Ciaran Cuffe will lose out. I also think that Barry Andrews seat is going to suffer from either Richard Boyd Barrett or and a second Labour candidate. And I think also Mary Hanafin vote is also going to suffer. The PD vote is going to swing behind Fine Gael and the left wing parties. Pushing for the shock ejection of 2 sitting high profile FF members. (every election has its shock.)
Verdict: 2FG 2 Lab
|*||Brian Lenihan2 Jnr||11,125||32.74%||1.31||1||Made Quota||1|
|Dr Leo Varadkar||6,928||20.39%||0.82||5||Made Quota||2|
|*||Joe Higgins||5,066||14.91%||0.60||(5)||Not Elected|
This seat would have been an amazing battle if it was not for the fact that it is now a 4 seater. There is 4 big hitters here in Joe Higgins Joan Burton Leo Varadkar and Brian Lenihan. And I think that it will return them. While Lenihan will think a massive hit possibly as the focus point of all the anger about the economic miss-management. I think he will poll enough to fight off a second FG candidate.
Verdict: 1FF 1 FG 1Lab 1 Soc
|*||Seamus Brennan||13,373||21.85%||1.31||1||Made Quota||1|
|*||Tom Kitt||8,487||13.87%||0.83||3||Made Quota||2|
|*||Olivia Mitchell||8,037||13.13%||0.79||7||Made Quota||3|
|*||Eamon Ryan||6,768||11.06%||0.66||8||Made Quota||4|
|Alan Shatter||5,752||9.40%||0.56||9||Made Quota||5|
|Maria Corrigan||3,438||5.62%||0.34||(9)||Not Elected|
So Geogre lee country. It is looking very like FG are going to take a third seat here in the by-election. But in a general would they do the same? It is certainly not guaranteed. A by-election is closer to a first past the post election then a STV election. transfers don’t matter that much. What it does do is up the profiles of the candidates involved as the media coverage is greater. So say that everything goes to plan and Lee wins it. What happens in a general? Well Tom Kitt is not running again so that will leave FF running an unknown. A difficult task without the impending doom of the party hanging over head. I can’t see FF pulling a seat out of here with an unknown. This is going to aid Labour as they will be the home of some of that vote. Indeed they will take the third seat.George Lee will top the poll if he gets some more media training. Alan Shatter will benefit. I think that the Greens and FF will be fighting for the last seat and I think Eamon Ryan will take it with by having name recognition.
Verdict: 3FG 1 Lab 1 Green
Dublin South East
|Chris Andrews||6,600||19.50%||0.98||3||Made Quota||1|
|Lucinda Creighton||6,311||18.65%||0.93||5||Made Quota||2|
|*||Ruairi Quinn||5,636||16.65%||0.83||5||Made Quota||3|
|*||Michael McDowell||4,450||13.15%||0.66||(5)||Not Elected|
This was legendary last time out, Gormley and McDowell face to face up poll to up poll.The rumble in Ranelagh
With Rumours of McDowell returning could we have a re-run? That would be great TV. Either way I think Gormley is in trouble. I think if McDowell returns or FG run a second candidate that vote is going to run towards him/her and Gormley is going to be found wanting. He might end up in a scrap with Chris Andrews. But I think Fianna Fail can keep it.
Verdict: 2FG 1 Lab 1FF
Dublin South Central
|*||Sean Ardagh||8,286||17.43%||1.05||1||Made Quota||1|
|*||Michael Mulcahy||7,439||15.65%||0.94||3||Made Quota||2|
|*||Mary Upton||5,987||12.60%||0.76||9||Made Quota||3|
|*||Aengus O Snodaigh||4,825||10.15%||0.61||10||Elected||5|
|Eric Byrne||4,054||8.53%||0.51||(10)||Not Elected|
This is a seat that Labour have been after for a while. They had high hopes of it last year and lost it by 69 votes. They are unlikely to lose out this time. But where last time out they looked to take the seat off Sinn Fein now they are going to be chasing Fianna Fail. In 2002 Gay Mitchell topped the poll but having lost to Enda in the FG leadership election he decided to go off to Europe. Back then the Fianna Fail vote needed transfers to put them in. Now they will be down and transferphobic. I am sure FG would not mind having Mitchell back and challenge for 2 seats. But I am not sure he would come back. Which is good news for Labour because I think they will squeeze the last seat away from Fianna Fail.
Verdict: 2 Lab 1 SF 1FG 1 FF
Fine Gael on 65 (+15)
Fianna Fail on 38 (-29)
Labour 22 (+7)
Sinn Fein 7 (+2)
Ind 5 (+3)
Greens 3 (0)
Socialists 1 (+1)