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Who would Lose out 7?

Read more about: Dublin South, Dublin South Central, Dublin South East, Dublin West, Dun Laoghaire, Who Would lose out     Print This Post

This is the Seventh in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much  local polling to go on this is entirely my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.

Dun Laoghaire


* Mary Hanafin    Fianna Fail Lozenge    11,884    20.24%    1.21    1      Made Quota      1
* Barry Andrews    Fianna Fail Lozenge    8,587    14.63%    0.88    2      Made Quota      2
* Eamon Gilmore    Labour Lozenge    7,127    12.14%    0.73    7      Made Quota      3
  Sean Barrett1    Fine Gael Lozenge    5,361    9.13%    0.55    9      Made Quota      4
* Ciaran Cuffe    Green/Comhaontas Glas Lozenge    4,534    7.72%    0.46    10      Made Quota      5

  Richard Boyd Barrett    Non party/People Before Profit Alliance Lozenge    5,233    8.91%    0.53    (10)      Not Elected       
  Eugene Regan    Fine Gael Lozenge    4,162    7.09%    0.43    (8)      Eliminated       

This is dropping from a 5 seater to a 4 seater which is going to render Ciaran Cuffe gone I feel, but also the Fianna Fail vote is going to fall. Another factor is the Fiona O’Malley PD vote that is gone. Last time out Richard Boyd Barrett polled very strongly and with a general shift to the left might benefit him. Eamon Gilmore the countries most popular leader is going to top the poll here and I suspect that they will run two candidates here. There used to be 2 left seats here (Lab and DL) and I think even with a fall in the number of seats that there is still 2 here. So who is going to suffer? One I think Ciaran Cuffe will lose out. I also think that Barry Andrews seat is going to suffer from either Richard Boyd Barrett or and a second Labour candidate. And I think also Mary Hanafin vote is also going to suffer. The PD vote is going to swing behind Fine Gael and the left wing parties. Pushing for the shock ejection of 2 sitting high profile FF members. (every election has its shock.)

Verdict: 2FG 2 Lab

Dublin West


* Brian Lenihan2 Jnr    Fianna Fail Lozenge    11,125    32.74%    1.31    1      Made Quota      1
  Dr Leo Varadkar    Fine Gael Lozenge    6,928    20.39%    0.82    5      Made Quota      2
* Joan Burton    Labour Lozenge    5,799    17.06%    0.68    5      Elected      3

* Joe Higgins    Socialist Lozenge    5,066    14.91%    0.60    (5)      Not Elected       
  Gerry Lynam    Fianna Fail Lozenge    1,601    4.71%    0.19    (4)      Eliminated  

This seat would have been an amazing battle if it was not for the fact that it is now a 4 seater. There is 4 big hitters here in Joe Higgins Joan Burton Leo Varadkar and Brian Lenihan. And I think that it will return them. While Lenihan will think a massive hit possibly as the focus point of all the anger about the economic miss-management. I think he will poll enough to fight off a second FG candidate.

Verdict: 1FF 1 FG 1Lab 1 Soc 

 

Dublin South 

 Candidate      Party      1st Pref   Share   Quota      Count   Status   Seat 

* Seamus Brennan    Fianna Fail Lozenge    13,373    21.85%    1.31    1      Made Quota      1
* Tom Kitt    Fianna Fail Lozenge    8,487    13.87%    0.83    3      Made Quota      2
* Olivia Mitchell    Fine Gael Lozenge    8,037    13.13%    0.79    7      Made Quota      3
* Eamon Ryan    Green/Comhaontas Glas Lozenge    6,768    11.06%    0.66    8      Made Quota      4
  Alan Shatter    Fine Gael Lozenge    5,752    9.40%    0.56    9      Made Quota      5

  Maria Corrigan    Fianna Fail Lozenge    3,438    5.62%    0.34    (9)      Not Elected       
  Alex White    Labour Lozenge    3,575    5.84%    0.35    (7)      Eliminated  

So Geogre lee country. It is looking very like FG are going to take a third seat here in the by-election. But in a general would they do the same? It is certainly not guaranteed. A by-election  is closer to a first past the post election then a STV election. transfers don’t matter that much. What it does do is up the profiles of the candidates involved as the media coverage is greater. So say that everything goes to plan and Lee wins it. What happens in a general? Well Tom Kitt is not running again so that will leave FF running an unknown. A difficult task without the impending doom of the party hanging over head. I can’t see FF pulling a seat out of here with an unknown. This is going to aid Labour as they will be the home of some of that vote. Indeed they will take the third seat.George Lee will top the poll if he gets some more media training. Alan Shatter will benefit. I think that the Greens and FF will be fighting for the last seat and I think Eamon Ryan will take it with by having name recognition.  

 Verdict: 3FG 1 Lab 1 Green

Dublin South East


  Chris Andrews    Fianna Fail Lozenge    6,600    19.50%    0.98    3      Made Quota      1
  Lucinda Creighton    Fine Gael Lozenge    6,311    18.65%    0.93    5      Made Quota      2
* Ruairi Quinn    Labour Lozenge    5,636    16.65%    0.83    5      Made Quota      3
* John Gormley2    Green/Comhaontas Glas Lozenge    4,685    13.84%    0.69    5      Elected      4

* Michael McDowell    Progressive Democrats Lozenge    4,450    13.15%    0.66    (5)      Not Elected       
  Jim O’Callaghan    Fianna Fail Lozenge    3,120    9.22%    0.46    (4)      Eliminated     

 

 

 

This was legendary last time out, Gormley and McDowell face to face up poll to up poll.The rumble in Ranelagh

With Rumours of McDowell returning could we have a re-run? That would be great TV. Either way I think Gormley is in trouble. I think if McDowell returns or FG run a second candidate that vote is going to run towards him/her and Gormley is going to be found wanting. He might end up in a scrap with Chris Andrews. But I think Fianna Fail can keep it. 

Verdict: 2FG 1 Lab 1FF

Dublin South Central


 Candidate      Party      1st Pref   Share   Quota      Count   Status   Seat 

* Sean Ardagh    Fianna Fail Lozenge    8,286    17.43%    1.05    1      Made Quota      1
* Michael Mulcahy    Fianna Fail Lozenge    7,439    15.65%    0.94    3      Made Quota      2
* Mary Upton    Labour Lozenge    5,987    12.60%    0.76    9      Made Quota      3
  Catherine Byrne2    Fine Gael Lozenge    4,713    9.92%    0.59    10      Elected      4
* Aengus O Snodaigh    Sinn Fein Lozenge    4,825    10.15%    0.61    10      Elected      5

  Eric Byrne    Labour Lozenge    4,054    8.53%    0.51    (10)      Not Elected       
  Tony McDermott    Green/Comhaontas Glas Lozenge    2,756    5.80%    0.35    (8)      Eliminated       
 

 

 

This is a seat that Labour have been after for a while. They had high hopes of it last year and lost it by 69 votes. They are unlikely to lose out this time. But where last time out they looked to take the seat off Sinn Fein now they are going to be chasing Fianna Fail. In 2002 Gay Mitchell topped the poll but having lost to Enda in the FG leadership election he decided to go off to Europe. Back then the Fianna Fail vote needed transfers to put them in. Now they will be down and transferphobic. I am sure FG  would not mind having Mitchell back and challenge for 2 seats. But I am not sure he would come back. Which is good news for Labour because I think they will squeeze the last seat away from Fianna Fail.

Verdict: 2 Lab 1 SF 1FG 1 FF

Fine Gael on 65 (+15)

Fianna Fail on 38 (-29)

Labour 22 (+7)

Sinn Fein 7 (+2)

Ind 5 (+3)

Greens 3 (0)

Socialists 1 (+1)


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One Response to “Who would Lose out 7?”

  1. # Comment by Michael McGrath Feb 4th, 2011 15:02

    Mary Hanafin is bearing the albatross of being an FF minister about her neck so I’ll bet on Barry Andrews to survive and be elected.
    Two Fine gael, and Gilmore heading the poll.
    Boyd Barrett was soundly trounced on Vincent Browne the other night , he’s gone at this stage .
    Ivana Bacik with a poor performance so far.

    FG 2 , FF 1 ( Andrews) , Labour 1 ( Gilmore)

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