Who would Lose out 7?

This is the Seventh in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much  local polling to go on this is entirely my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.

Dun Laoghaire

*	Mary Hanafin				11,884		20.24%		1.21		1		Made Quota		1
*	Barry Andrews				8,587		14.63%		0.88		2		Made Quota		2
*	Eamon Gilmore				7,127		12.14%		0.73		7		Made Quota		3
	Sean Barrett1				5,361		9.13%		0.55		9		Made Quota		4
*	Ciaran Cuffe				4,534		7.72%		0.46		10		Made Quota		5
	Richard Boyd Barrett				5,233		8.91%		0.53		(10)		Not Elected
	Eugene Regan				4,162		7.09%		0.43		(8)		Eliminated

This is dropping from a 5 seater to a 4 seater which is going to render Ciaran Cuffe gone I feel, but also the Fianna Fail vote is going to fall. Another factor is the Fiona O’Malley PD vote that is gone. Last time out Richard Boyd Barrett polled very strongly and with a general shift to the left might benefit him. Eamon Gilmore the countries most popular leader is going to top the poll here and I suspect that they will run two candidates here. There used to be 2 left seats here (Lab and DL) and I think even with a fall in the number of seats that there is still 2 here. So who is going to suffer? One I think Ciaran Cuffe will lose out. I also think that Barry Andrews seat is going to suffer from either Richard Boyd Barrett or and a second Labour candidate. And I think also Mary Hanafin vote is also going to suffer. The PD vote is going to swing behind Fine Gael and the left wing parties. Pushing for the shock ejection of 2 sitting high profile FF members. (every election has its shock.)

Verdict: 2FG 2 Lab

Dublin West

*	Brian Lenihan2 Jnr				11,125		32.74%		1.31		1		Made Quota		1
	Dr Leo Varadkar				6,928		20.39%		0.82		5		Made Quota		2
*	Joan Burton				5,799		17.06%		0.68		5		Elected		3
*	Joe Higgins				5,066		14.91%		0.60		(5)		Not Elected
	Gerry Lynam				1,601		4.71%		0.19		(4)		Eliminated

This seat would have been an amazing battle if it was not for the fact that it is now a 4 seater. There is 4 big hitters here in Joe Higgins Joan Burton Leo Varadkar and Brian Lenihan. And I think that it will return them. While Lenihan will think a massive hit possibly as the focus point of all the anger about the economic miss-management. I think he will poll enough to fight off a second FG candidate.

Verdict: 1FF 1 FG 1Lab 1 Soc 

Dublin South 

Candidate			Party		1st Pref		Share		Quota		Count		Status		Seat
*	Seamus Brennan				13,373		21.85%		1.31		1		Made Quota		1
*	Tom Kitt				8,487		13.87%		0.83		3		Made Quota		2
*	Olivia Mitchell				8,037		13.13%		0.79		7		Made Quota		3
*	Eamon Ryan				6,768		11.06%		0.66		8		Made Quota		4
	Alan Shatter				5,752		9.40%		0.56		9		Made Quota		5
	Maria Corrigan				3,438		5.62%		0.34		(9)		Not Elected
	Alex White				3,575		5.84%		0.35		(7)		Eliminated

So Geogre lee country. It is looking very like FG are going to take a third seat here in the by-election. But in a general would they do the same? It is certainly not guaranteed. A by-election  is closer to a first past the post election then a STV election. transfers don’t matter that much. What it does do is up the profiles of the candidates involved as the media coverage is greater. So say that everything goes to plan and Lee wins it. What happens in a general? Well Tom Kitt is not running again so that will leave FF running an unknown. A difficult task without the impending doom of the party hanging over head. I can’t see FF pulling a seat out of here with an unknown. This is going to aid Labour as they will be the home of some of that vote. Indeed they will take the third seat.George Lee will top the poll if he gets some more media training. Alan Shatter will benefit. I think that the Greens and FF will be fighting for the last seat and I think Eamon Ryan will take it with by having name recognition.  

 Verdict: 3FG 1 Lab 1 Green

Dublin South East

	Chris Andrews				6,600		19.50%		0.98		3		Made Quota		1
	Lucinda Creighton				6,311		18.65%		0.93		5		Made Quota		2
*	Ruairi Quinn				5,636		16.65%		0.83		5		Made Quota		3
*	John Gormley2				4,685		13.84%		0.69		5		Elected		4
*	Michael McDowell				4,450		13.15%		0.66		(5)		Not Elected
	Jim O’Callaghan				3,120		9.22%		0.46		(4)		Eliminated

This was legendary last time out, Gormley and McDowell face to face up poll to up poll.The rumble in Ranelagh

With Rumours of McDowell returning could we have a re-run? That would be great TV. Either way I think Gormley is in trouble. I think if McDowell returns or FG run a second candidate that vote is going to run towards him/her and Gormley is going to be found wanting. He might end up in a scrap with Chris Andrews. But I think Fianna Fail can keep it. 

Verdict: 2FG 1 Lab 1FF

Dublin South Central

Candidate			Party		1st Pref		Share		Quota		Count		Status		Seat
*	Sean Ardagh				8,286		17.43%		1.05		1		Made Quota		1
*	Michael Mulcahy				7,439		15.65%		0.94		3		Made Quota		2
*	Mary Upton				5,987		12.60%		0.76		9		Made Quota		3
	Catherine Byrne2				4,713		9.92%		0.59		10		Elected		4
*	Aengus O Snodaigh				4,825		10.15%		0.61		10		Elected		5
	Eric Byrne				4,054		8.53%		0.51		(10)		Not Elected
	Tony McDermott				2,756		5.80%		0.35		(8)		Eliminated

This is a seat that Labour have been after for a while. They had high hopes of it last year and lost it by 69 votes. They are unlikely to lose out this time. But where last time out they looked to take the seat off Sinn Fein now they are going to be chasing Fianna Fail. In 2002 Gay Mitchell topped the poll but having lost to Enda in the FG leadership election he decided to go off to Europe. Back then the Fianna Fail vote needed transfers to put them in. Now they will be down and transferphobic. I am sure FG  would not mind having Mitchell back and challenge for 2 seats. But I am not sure he would come back. Which is good news for Labour because I think they will squeeze the last seat away from Fianna Fail.

Verdict: 2 Lab 1 SF 1FG 1 FF

Fine Gael on 65 (+15)

Fianna Fail on 38 (-29)

Labour 22 (+7)

Sinn Fein 7 (+2)

Ind 5 (+3)

Greens 3 (0)

Socialists 1 (+1)