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Who would lose out 5?

Read more about: Carlow-Kilkenny, Kerry North, Kerry South, Waterford, Wexford, Who Would lose out, Wicklow     Print This Post

This is the fifth in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much  local polling to go on this is entirely my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.

Waterford

* Martin Cullen  Fianna Fail Lozenge 11,438 23.09% 1.15 1 Made Quota 1
* John Deasy  Fine Gael Lozenge 7,554 15.25% 0.76 9 Made Quota 2
* Brian O’Shea  Labour Lozenge 5,610 11.33% 0.57 10 Made Quota 3
§ Brendan Kenneally  Fianna Fail Lozenge 5,624 11.36% 0.57 11 Elected 4

* Ollie Wilkinson  Fianna Fail Lozenge 5,963 12.04% 0.60 (11) Not Elected
Paudie Coffey  Fine Gael Lozenge 4,658 9.40% 0.47 (8) Eliminated
David Cullinane  Sinn Fein Lozenge 3,327 6.72% 0.34 (7) Eliminated

Waterford has a sizeabale left wing vote with the workers party still polling decently. Likewise Sinn Fein are likely to do well and push for a seat. But I don’t think they either are going to get a seat. Martin Cullens vote is going to be down with the bad press he gets but more significantly as the general FF vote will be down and Fine Gael vote up. FF vote is going to split into Labour and Sinn Fein. This is going to give FG the breathing room to take a second seat.

Verdict: 1FF 2FG 1 lab

Wexford

* John Browne2  Fianna Fail Lozenge 12,768 18.61% 1.12 1 Made Quota 1
* Brendan Howlin  Labour Lozenge 9,445 13.77% 0.83 5 Made Quota 2
Sean Connick  Fianna Fail Lozenge 9,826 14.32% 0.86 5 Made Quota 3
* Paul Kehoe  Fine Gael Lozenge 8,459 12.33% 0.74 6 Made Quota 4
Michael W D’Arcy2 Jnr  Fine Gael Lozenge 7,692 11.21% 0.67 7 Made Quota 5

Lisa McDonald  Fianna Fail Lozenge 6,355 9.26% 0.56 (7) Not Elected
* Liam Twomey  Fine Gael Lozenge 5,507 8.03% 0.48 (5) Eliminated
John Dwyer1  Sinn Fein Lozenge 5,068 7.39% 0.44 (4) Eliminated

Liam Twomey was on the Fine Gael front bench last time out and was not re-elected that was a surprise and disappointment for Fine Gael. They must be wondering did Colm O’Gorman eat into their vote much. But looking at the transfers his vote split pretty evenly across the parties. He has a lot of votes to make up but with Wexford have a decent sized suburban profile. FG might be able to capitalise on that and take another seat.  But they need the fight to stay independent clear and they need FG to run a good campaign. It will not be easy.

Verdict: 3FG 1FF 1 Lab

Wicklow

* Dick Roche  Fianna Fail Lozenge 10,246 15.78% 0.95 4 Made Quota 1
Joe Behan  Fianna Fail Lozenge 9,431 14.53% 0.87 5 Made Quota 2
* Liz McManus  Labour Lozenge 6,751 10.40% 0.62 8 Made Quota 3
* Billy Timmins  Fine Gael Lozenge 8,072 12.43% 0.75 9 Made Quota 4
Andrew Doyle2  Fine Gael Lozenge 6,961 10.72% 0.64 9 Elected 5

Pat Fitzgerald1  Fianna Fail Lozenge 5,029 7.75% 0.46 (9) Not Elected
Deirdre de Burca  Green/Comhaontas Glas Lozenge 4,790 7.38% 0.44 (7) Eliminated
Nicky Kelly  Labour Lozenge 3,857 5.94% 0.36 (5) Eliminated

Here is another interesting seat. Joe Behan probably is going to top the poll. Having resigned over the budget from the party he will retain his vote and may take anyway some from Dick Roche. Dick Roche is constantly wheeled out for the government for some unknown reason. While he lost the Lisbon referndum. It will not be held against him. His vote will be down but not enough for him to lose his seat. However if his vote switchs to Labour in significant numbers and the Green vote goes down then Labour could be looking at 2 seats here. But as the likely target will be Dick Roche. I can’t see them doing it. No change but Behan not coming in from the cold.

Verdict: 1 FF 1Ind 1 Lab 2 FG

Carlow Kilkenny

* John McGuinness3  Fianna Fail Lozenge 11,635 17.20% 1.03 1 Made Quota 1
Bobby Aylward2  Fianna Fail Lozenge 11,600 17.15% 1.03 1 Made Quota 2
* Phil Hogan  Fine Gael Lozenge 8,589 12.70% 0.76 7 Made Quota 3
* M J Nolan  Fianna Fail Lozenge 9,037 13.36% 0.80 8 Made Quota 4
Mary White1  Green/Comhaontas Glas Lozenge 5,386 7.96% 0.48 9 Elected 5

§ John Paul Phelan  Fine Gael Lozenge 6,494 9.60% 0.58 (9) Not Elected
Jim Townsend  Labour Lozenge 3,401 5.03% 0.30 (7) Eliminated

After the League Final I am not sure I should talk about Kilkenny. But as Carlow were never a treat to anyone with a hurley I will procede. Last time out FF took a massive first preference vote with their two canidates topping the poll.  But remember one of them is John McGuinness who famously went took his demotion like a man *cough*. But anything that goes against the present goverenment is likely to gardner some votes. While seen as opportunist by lots of people it will do his chances no harm whats so ever. Last time out the Greens took the seat gaining the most from FF transfers. (31%) If they could keep that they could keep a seat. Also there used to be a Labour canidate in this seat for many years suggesting that there is a vote looking for a left wing outlet. The greens are providing it and if they can maintain their precentage of the vote they should hang onto the seat. But they will be up against FF and FG for the seat. Last time out it was the Greens transfer friendliness that got them over the line. But this time if FG have a bigger vote they might make a strong play for a second seat. They are running Phelan in the Euro’s to up his profile. I think this possibly coupled with FF general down turn could see FG take a second seat they have not won since 97.  This seat will be at FF expense with possibly MJ Nolan taking the hit(although he might get a Carlow Loyality vote while McGuinness might take Kilkeeny leaving Aylward short. FF should still be able to hold onto 2 seats.

Verdict: 2FF 2FG 1 G

Kerry South

* John O’Donoghue  Fianna Fail Lozenge 9,128 23.39% 0.94 3 Made Quota 1
Tom Sheahan2  Fine Gael Lozenge 5,600 14.35% 0.57 5 Made Quota 2
* Jackie Healy Rae  Non party/Independent Lozenge 5,993 15.35% 0.61 6 Elected 3

Tom Fleming  Fianna Fail Lozenge 6,740 17.27% 0.69 (6) Not Elected
* Breeda Moynihan Cronin  Labour Lozenge 5,263 13.48% 0.54 (4) Eliminated

With John O’Donoghue Automatically coming back  as he is Ceann Comhairle this seat is a two seater. Also with Jakie Healy Rae stepping down probably for his son Michael Healy Rae this 2 horse race is going to be interesting. With the John O’Donoghue vote inessence released. The Vote for a second FF seat here will be up. While the is going to be a general fall in the FF vote I don’t think that it will be enough to stop FF making a gain here probably at the expense Healy Rae.

Verdict: 2FF 1 FG

Kerry South

* Jimmy Deenihan  Fine Gael Lozenge 12,697 32.30% 1.29 1 Made Quota 1
* Tom McEllistrim3  Fianna Fail Lozenge 7,367 18.74% 0.75 4 Made Quota 2
* Martin Ferris  Sinn Fein Lozenge 8,030 20.43% 0.82 4 Made Quota 3

Terry O’Brien  Labour Lozenge 4,287 10.90% 0.44 (4) Not Elected
Norma Foley  Fianna Fail Lozenge 4,937 12.56% 0.50 (3) Eliminated

This seat could get very very interesting. I think jimmy Deenihan is safe here. But Tom McEllistrim could be in trouble. If the FF vote is down then where the rest of the vote goes could decide where this seat goes. Last time out FF transfers split pretty evenly between Sinn Fein and Labour. If the same thing happens it and there is a general upswing in the vote for Labour then they could make a play for the last seat. This is former Dick Spring country so there is a Labour vote out there. If the FF meltdown is significat as predicted I think that Labour might find the votes to fend off FF. But they need to attract some of the vote from SF and FF and hope for some FG transfers.

Verdict: 1FG 1 Lab 1 SF

Fine Gael on 47 (+13)

Fianna Fail on 28 (-22)

Labour 12 (+4)

Sinn Fein 6 (+2)

Ind 5 (+3)

Greens 2 (+1)

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2 Responses to “Who would lose out 5?”

  1. # Comment by Paddy Matthews May 18th, 2009 00:05

    Disagree on Carlow-Kilkenny. White is the Greens’ equivalent of Mae Sexton at the last election – elected on county loyalty and through exploiting the weaknesses of the other Carlow candidates (who she got past by very narrow margins). I’d expect a stronger FG candidate in Carlow to spell doom for her and Labour to retake the seat. FF 2 FG 2 Lb 1.

  2. # Comment by Richard Dalton May 27th, 2009 14:05

    In Carlow/Kilkenny there’s an outside chance that Liam Aylward won’t hold the Euro seat, and Bobby Aylward won’t hold the Dail seat. That would be a pretty incredible turn of events.

    It would be a spanner in the works for what seems like the plan at the moment, to allow Bobby to move on to Europe when Liam eventually retires, with Eamon Aylward running in the local elections, possibly hoping to step into Bobby’s Dail seat when Bobby steps into Liams.

    Of course that’s just how it looks from the outside, I’m sure all concerned would deny all of it.

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