Who would lose out 5?

This is the fifth in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much  local polling to go on this is entirely my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.

Waterford

*	Martin Cullen				11,438		23.09%		1.15		1		Made Quota		1
*	John Deasy				7,554		15.25%		0.76		9		Made Quota		2
*	Brian O’Shea				5,610		11.33%		0.57		10		Made Quota		3
§	Brendan Kenneally				5,624		11.36%		0.57		11		Elected		4
*	Ollie Wilkinson				5,963		12.04%		0.60		(11)		Not Elected
	Paudie Coffey				4,658		9.40%		0.47		(8)		Eliminated
	David Cullinane				3,327		6.72%		0.34		(7)		Eliminated

Waterford has a sizeabale left wing vote with the workers party still polling decently. Likewise Sinn Fein are likely to do well and push for a seat. But I don’t think they either are going to get a seat. Martin Cullens vote is going to be down with the bad press he gets but more significantly as the general FF vote will be down and Fine Gael vote up. FF vote is going to split into Labour and Sinn Fein. This is going to give FG the breathing room to take a second seat.

Verdict: 1FF 2FG 1 lab

Wexford

*	John Browne2				12,768		18.61%		1.12		1		Made Quota		1
*	Brendan Howlin				9,445		13.77%		0.83		5		Made Quota		2
	Sean Connick				9,826		14.32%		0.86		5		Made Quota		3
*	Paul Kehoe				8,459		12.33%		0.74		6		Made Quota		4
	Michael W D’Arcy2 Jnr				7,692		11.21%		0.67		7		Made Quota		5
	Lisa McDonald				6,355		9.26%		0.56		(7)		Not Elected
*	Liam Twomey				5,507		8.03%		0.48		(5)		Eliminated
	John Dwyer1				5,068		7.39%		0.44		(4)		Eliminated

Liam Twomey was on the Fine Gael front bench last time out and was not re-elected that was a surprise and disappointment for Fine Gael. They must be wondering did Colm O’Gorman eat into their vote much. But looking at the transfers his vote split pretty evenly across the parties. He has a lot of votes to make up but with Wexford have a decent sized suburban profile. FG might be able to capitalise on that and take another seat.  But they need the fight to stay independent clear and they need FG to run a good campaign. It will not be easy.

Verdict: 3FG 1FF 1 Lab

Wicklow

*	Dick Roche				10,246		15.78%		0.95		4		Made Quota		1
	Joe Behan				9,431		14.53%		0.87		5		Made Quota		2
*	Liz McManus				6,751		10.40%		0.62		8		Made Quota		3
*	Billy Timmins				8,072		12.43%		0.75		9		Made Quota		4
	Andrew Doyle2				6,961		10.72%		0.64		9		Elected		5
	Pat Fitzgerald1				5,029		7.75%		0.46		(9)		Not Elected
	Deirdre de Burca				4,790		7.38%		0.44		(7)		Eliminated
	Nicky Kelly				3,857		5.94%		0.36		(5)		Eliminated

Here is another interesting seat. Joe Behan probably is going to top the poll. Having resigned over the budget from the party he will retain his vote and may take anyway some from Dick Roche. Dick Roche is constantly wheeled out for the government for some unknown reason. While he lost the Lisbon referndum. It will not be held against him. His vote will be down but not enough for him to lose his seat. However if his vote switchs to Labour in significant numbers and the Green vote goes down then Labour could be looking at 2 seats here. But as the likely target will be Dick Roche. I can’t see them doing it. No change but Behan not coming in from the cold.

Verdict: 1 FF 1Ind 1 Lab 2 FG

Carlow Kilkenny

*	John McGuinness3				11,635		17.20%		1.03		1		Made Quota		1
	Bobby Aylward2				11,600		17.15%		1.03		1		Made Quota		2
*	Phil Hogan				8,589		12.70%		0.76		7		Made Quota		3
*	M J Nolan				9,037		13.36%		0.80		8		Made Quota		4
	Mary White1				5,386		7.96%		0.48		9		Elected		5
§	John Paul Phelan				6,494		9.60%		0.58		(9)		Not Elected
	Jim Townsend				3,401		5.03%		0.30		(7)		Eliminated

After the League Final I am not sure I should talk about Kilkenny. But as Carlow were never a treat to anyone with a hurley I will procede. Last time out FF took a massive first preference vote with their two canidates topping the poll.  But remember one of them is John McGuinness who famously went took his demotion like a man *cough*. But anything that goes against the present goverenment is likely to gardner some votes. While seen as opportunist by lots of people it will do his chances no harm whats so ever. Last time out the Greens took the seat gaining the most from FF transfers. (31%) If they could keep that they could keep a seat. Also there used to be a Labour canidate in this seat for many years suggesting that there is a vote looking for a left wing outlet. The greens are providing it and if they can maintain their precentage of the vote they should hang onto the seat. But they will be up against FF and FG for the seat. Last time out it was the Greens transfer friendliness that got them over the line. But this time if FG have a bigger vote they might make a strong play for a second seat. They are running Phelan in the Euro’s to up his profile. I think this possibly coupled with FF general down turn could see FG take a second seat they have not won since 97.  This seat will be at FF expense with possibly MJ Nolan taking the hit(although he might get a Carlow Loyality vote while McGuinness might take Kilkeeny leaving Aylward short. FF should still be able to hold onto 2 seats.

Verdict: 2FF 2FG 1 G

Kerry South

*	John O’Donoghue				9,128		23.39%		0.94		3		Made Quota		1
	Tom Sheahan2				5,600		14.35%		0.57		5		Made Quota		2
*	Jackie Healy Rae				5,993		15.35%		0.61		6		Elected		3
	Tom Fleming				6,740		17.27%		0.69		(6)		Not Elected
*	Breeda Moynihan Cronin				5,263		13.48%		0.54		(4)		Eliminated

With John O’Donoghue Automatically coming back  as he is Ceann Comhairle this seat is a two seater. Also with Jakie Healy Rae stepping down probably for his son Michael Healy Rae this 2 horse race is going to be interesting. With the John O’Donoghue vote inessence released. The Vote for a second FF seat here will be up. While the is going to be a general fall in the FF vote I don’t think that it will be enough to stop FF making a gain here probably at the expense Healy Rae.

Verdict: 2FF 1 FG

Kerry South

*	Jimmy Deenihan				12,697		32.30%		1.29		1		Made Quota		1
*	Tom McEllistrim3				7,367		18.74%		0.75		4		Made Quota		2
*	Martin Ferris				8,030		20.43%		0.82		4		Made Quota		3
	Terry O’Brien				4,287		10.90%		0.44		(4)		Not Elected
	Norma Foley				4,937		12.56%		0.50		(3)		Eliminated

This seat could get very very interesting. I think jimmy Deenihan is safe here. But Tom McEllistrim could be in trouble. If the FF vote is down then where the rest of the vote goes could decide where this seat goes. Last time out FF transfers split pretty evenly between Sinn Fein and Labour. If the same thing happens it and there is a general upswing in the vote for Labour then they could make a play for the last seat. This is former Dick Spring country so there is a Labour vote out there. If the FF meltdown is significat as predicted I think that Labour might find the votes to fend off FF. But they need to attract some of the vote from SF and FF and hope for some FG transfers.

Verdict: 1FG 1 Lab 1 SF

Fine Gael on 47 (+13)

Fianna Fail on 28 (-22)

Labour 12 (+4)

Sinn Fein 6 (+2)

Ind 5 (+3)

Greens 2 (+1)