Who would lose out 4.

This is the fourth in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much  local polling to go on this is entirely my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.

Meath East. 

Candidate			Party		1st Pref		Share		Quota		Count		Status		Seat
°	Mary Wallace				10,901		25.35%		1.01		1		Made Quota		1
°	Shane McEntee				6,766		15.73%		0.63		8		Made Quota		2
	Thomas Byrne4				7,834		18.22%		0.73		8		Elected		3
	Dominic Hannigan				5,136		11.94%		0.48		(8)		Not Elected
	Regina Doherty				4,363		10.14%		0.41		(7)		Eliminated

This is a seat that Labour really hope to pick up. They have big hopes for Dominic Hannigan and with the FF vote down they are going to get their wish I think. At who’s expense it remains to be seen. Thomas Byrne is running for the Euros he must realise the writing is on the wall for him. Mary Wallace should be able to hang on. But she could find herself closer to 4th then she may wish with FG pushing to wipe FF out of Meath East. But I think Thomas Byrne being eliminated will give her enough transfers to get over the line. 

Verdict: 1FG 1FF 1Lab

Meath West

°	Noel Dempsey				12,006		29.67%		1.19		1		Made Quota		1
°	Johnny Brady				8,868		21.92%		0.88		2		Made Quota		2
°	Damien English				7,227		17.86%		0.71		7		Made Quota		3
	Joe Reilly				4,567		11.29%		0.45		(7)		Not Elected
	Peter Higgins				3,234		7.99%		0.32		(6)		Eliminated

Here is another would be successor to Brian Cowen after the election and certainly likely to keep his seat. But don’t be surprised if  there is a downturn in his vote. Whether or not enough dissatisfied voters can be found in Meath West to push Fine Gael into a second seat remains to be seen. They tried the celebrity thing with Grapham Gerarty and it did not work. I think Labour will see a rise in their vote here but not enough to win them the seat. Sinn Fein might also push.  But probably not enough to sweep up the anti-gov vote and send it Fine Gaels way. Status Quo to remain.  Bringing in a running mate could possibly see Noel Dempsey as the next leader. 

Verdict: 2FF 1FG

Laois Offaly

*	Brian Cowen				19,102		26.72%		1.60		1		Made Quota		1
*	Olwyn Enright				8,297		11.61%		0.70		8		Made Quota		2
*	Sean Fleming				8,064		11.28%		0.68		9		Made Quota		3
	Charlie Flanagan				9,067		12.68%		0.76		9		Made Quota		4
*	John Moloney				7,242		10.13%		0.61		11		Elected		5
	John Foley				5,899		8.25%		0.50		(11)		Not Elected
*	Tom Parlon				4,233		5.92%		0.36		(8)		Eliminated

Brian Cowens garden. Last time out they took 3 of the 5 seats. This time out with Cowen guaranteed not to be the next leader or anything but a backbencher for the rest of his career. 3 seats are not there automatically there for them. The lack of Parlon could shack up the race. Largely a Laois farming based vote. This could swing heavily behind Fine Gael. If they run another strong Laois based candidate they might very well be able to take most of Parlons vote and shape it into another seat especially if the polls hold out and they can take another say 10% of the vote coupled to Parlons vote and 15% drop for Fianna Fail. However Fianna Fail are going to be very clever with this seat. They will not spread themselves too much and will defend it. But the tide might just be going Fine Gaels way a bit too much. Close but on reflection (I have changed this prediction) Fine Gael to gain

Verdict: 3FG 2FF

Kildare North

	Aine Brady				11,245		24.88%		1.24		1		Made Quota		1
*	Emmet Stagg				7,882		17.44%		0.87		5		Made Quota		2
	Michael Fitzpatrick2				6,606		14.62%		0.73		5		Made Quota		3
*	Bernard J Durkan				5,340		11.82%		0.59		6		Made Quota		4
*	Catherine Murphy				5,188		11.48%		0.57		(6)		Not Elected
	Darren Scully				4,250		9.40%		0.47		(5)		Eliminated

Last time out the sitting Independent Cathrine Murphy lost her seat to Michael Fitzpatrick and Bernard Durkan. She had won it in a by election. Coming from the Democratic Left stable she was very much on the left of politics. Which in the current climate my certainly help her if she runs again. If not then her vote is unlikely to go the way of Fianna Fail. Alot of it may go to Labour and the Greens but as Emmet Stag may not need it, it will probably fall to FG. With this turning from a 3 to a 4 seater. Fine Gael do have a decent stab at two seats here. That is if Catherine Murphy does not stand and Labour don’t field two candidates. The Fianna Fail vote is going to be down aiding I think Emmet Stagg. But some of it will find its way to Fine Gael or Cathrine Murphy. I think Cathrine Murphy will stand again and take the seat away from Fitzpatrick. 

Verdict: 1FF 1 Lab 1 FG 1 IND

Kildare South

*	Sean O Fearghail				8,731		25.24%		1.01		1		Made Quota		1
*	Sean Power				8,694		25.13%		1.01		1		Made Quota		2
*	Jack Wall				7,154		20.68%		0.83		3		Made Quota		3
	Richard Daly2				3,353		9.69%		0.39		(3)		Not Elected
	Allan Gillis				2,586		7.48%		0.30		(3)		Not Elected

Last time out the FG vote was very poor not even combined did they have a vote to get near a seat. But remember this was Alan Dukes old seat so there is a Fine Gael vote somewhere in there. However due to the changing nature of Kildare into suburban voting local loyalties are not what they were. But the question is who would the run? Not knowing much about Kildare politics I think we have to see who emerges in Kildare after the locals. There is certainly a FG seat to be regained heras I can imagine the voter being fickle . But a lot of work yet to be done for Fine Gael here. But I think that they can take a seat here as well. Labour to be safe. 

Verdict: 1FF 1FG 1LAb

Total so far. 

Fine Gael on 36 (+10)

Fianna Fail on 21  (-18)

Labour 8 (+3)

Sinn Fein 5 (+2)

Ind 4 (+2)

Greens 1 (+1)