Who would lose out 2?

This is the second in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much  local polling to go on this is entirely my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.

Galway West

Candidate			Party		1st Pref		Share		Quota		Count		Status		Seat
*	Eamon O Cuiv				9,645		17.51%		1.05		1		Made Quota		1
*	Michael D Higgins				6,086		11.05%		0.66		10		Made Quota		2
	Padraic McCormack				5,419		9.84%		0.59		12		Made Quota		3
*	Noel Grealish				5,806		10.54%		0.63		13		Elected		4
*	Frank Fahey				5,854		10.63%		0.64		13		Elected		5
	Michael J Crowe2				4,969		9.02%		0.54		(13)		Not Elected
	Fidelma Healy Eames				3,904		7.09%		0.43		(11)		Eliminated
	Niall O Brolchain				3,026		5.49%		0.33		(9)		Eliminated

Galway West is not going to buck the trend and keep Fianna Fail seats. Frank Fahey is going to lose his seat. Certainly not the most liked TD in the country his vote like the rest of the FF is going down. Eamon O’Cuiv’s vote is going to be strong as it is based in the Gaeltacht where he is very much liked. He will top the poll. The interesting question is what happens Grealish’s vote. He is being courted by many parties but a quick election might see him not choose a side. He was rumoured to be looking at FF but  I don’t think he is that stupid. he will lose some of the PD vote to FG but maintain some of his own personal vote. Fidelma Healy Eames certainly has a great chance of taking the 4th seat if she runs. The 5th seat will be a fight between Fianna Fail, Grelish and the Greens. O’Brolchain has a strong profile in Galway. Has tried to distance himself from the parliamentary party supporting FF. Which will hold him in good stead. Also the Greens performance in government has not been terrible, they have looked sane and some peoples worries of Greens=hippies might give a boost to O’Brolchain. Also most polls have seen Green Support to be stead. But i think Grealish could hold on to his seat. O’Brolchain will not get a seat in Galway East until Michael D retires. However if FF do the unthinkable and try running two candidates rather then the normal 3 Fahey might just be safe, but I don’t think so.

Verdict: FF Lab FG FG Ind

Galway East.

*	Paul Connaughton				6,886		12.34%		0.62		8		Made Quota		1
	Michael Kitt2				8,796		15.77%		0.79		8		Made Quota		2
	Ulick R Burke				5,149		9.23%		0.46		9		Made Quota		3
*	Noel Treacy				7,524		13.49%		0.67		9		Elected		4
*	Joe Callanan				5,817		10.43%		0.52		(9)		Not Elected
	Tom McHugh				4,881		8.75%		0.44		(7)		Eliminated

This seat could be interesting. Ciaran Cannon former leader of the PD’s is from here and has since joined the Fine Gael. I am guessing part of the reason he did this was the he was offered a place on the Fine Gael ticket. The question then is do FG run 3 or 4 candidates? They ran 4 last time with a lot of sweeping up done. But in the situation where they are ahead in the polls spreading their vote that thin could have a lot of downside. Another point is Ciaran Cannon. He certainly is not a major name, having lead the PD’s when it was already dead, but will he suffer for jumping ship? FG do have a good chance of taking the 3rd seat here especially if the Fianna Fail vote stays at home. I think if Ciaran Cannon can keep his PD/personnel vote and take some Fine Gael votes he can grab the 4th seat. But from who is the question? As both Kitt and Treacy have lost there minister for state jobs it will be a toss up between them.

Verdict: 3FG 1FF

Mayo.

*	Enda Kenny				14,717		20.62%		1.24		1		Made Quota		1
*	Michael Ring				11,412		15.99%		0.96		2		Made Quota		2
	John O’Mahony5				6,869		9.62%		0.58		8		Made Quota		3
	Dara Calleary				7,225		10.12%		0.61		8		Elected		4
*	Beverley Flynn				6,779		9.50%		0.57		8		Elected		5
*	John Carty2				5,889		8.25%		0.49		(8)		Not Elected
	Michelle Mulherin				5,428		7.60%		0.46		(7)		Eliminated

The question here will be can Enda Kenny win not just 3 seats not just 4 seats but 5 seats? Crazy as it seems it is not impossible to imagine it. But don’t worry Enda is not going to win 5 seats. But 4? As Enda will be the de facto next Taoiseach he is going to have a large vote. Which means plenty of transfer goodness to spread around. Also Michael Ring will also poll highly. The Problem for FG may well be that the above candidates pull in to much of the vote and don’t spread it around. However Beverley Flynn might be in trouble. While she the huge personnel Flynn vote recent scandals will damage her and make her slightly less transfer friendly. But it will not be easy for Fine Gael. In 2007 they bucked the trend of the country in being so dominant here. Taking 53% of the vote.  There is not much left to take.  If managed right Fine Gael can sneak a somewhat amazing 4th seat out of here. But they need to manage it very well or Bev’s personnel vote will get her in. Dara Calleary should be safe enough if FF don’t overload the field.

Verdict FG4 FF1

Roscomman Leitrim South.

§	Frank Feighan				9,103		19.76%		0.79		4		Made Quota		1
°	Michael Finneran				9,982		21.66%		0.87		4		Made Quota		2
°	Denis Naughten				8,928		19.38%		0.78		4		Elected		3
°	John Ellis				7,915		17.18%		0.69		(4)		Not Elected
	John Kelly8				4,539		9.85%		0.39		(3)		Eliminated

Last time out it was the transfer of John Kelly that swung behind Denis Naughten to win him the seat knocking John Ellis out. John Ellis now a senator will be back and fighting in this constituency. But the downturn has hit here hard and FF will suffer. Fine Gael might be tempted to go for all three seats here. But I am not sure there is enough here for them. The last seat will be fight between the two FFers and if another Independent if one has a strong name. FF to take the seat on the transfers from which ever FF is eliminated first.

Verdict: No change FG2 FF1

Sligo Leitrim North

§	Eamon Scanlon				9,258		23.18%		0.93		5		Made Quota		1
°	John Perry				7,910		19.81%		0.79		5		Made Quota		2
°	Jimmy Devins2				7,102		17.78%		0.71		5		Elected		3
	Michael Comiskey				4,937		12.36%		0.49		(5)		Not Elected
	Sean MacManus				4,684		11.73%		0.47		(4)		Eliminated

This seat could become very interesting. I got a feeling that we could see Marian Harkin back from Europe in this race. Which would be a big dent in FG chances of taking the seat hoovering up much of dissatisfied voters. However if she does not run. FG will be fighting hard for the last seat. Sinn Fein too could produce a good run in this seat probably taking some vote off FF. Indeed I am going to go out on a limb here and say that they are going to take the last seat. Just piping FG.

Verdict: 1FF 1 FG 1SF

Total including last

Fine Gael on 21 (+5)

Fianna Fail on 9 (-9)

Labour 4 (+2)

Sinn Fein 1 (+1)

Ind 2 (-)

All figures from the excellent Electionsireland.org