Who Loses Out 3?
This is the third in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much local polling to go on this is entirly my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.
Donegal North East
|§||Joe McHugh||8,711||22.60%||0.90||5||Made Quota||1|
|*||Dr Jim McDaid||6,724||17.44%||0.70||7||Made Quota||2|
|Padraig Mac Lochlainn||6,733||17.47%||0.70||(8)||Not Elected|
This is going to be interesting. The renagade Jim McDaid, a Blaney and Sinn Fein young gun. All of them have a shot at the seat. McDaid has his certain distance from the Party after losing the whip. Blaney has the name and Sinn Fein are likely to sweep up the anti-FF vote. I think Blaney is safe with his name. But I think himself and McDaid will hemerage enough votes to give Sinn Fein that seat they always thought they should have.Joe McHugh is safe.
Verdict: FF1 FG1 SF 1
Donegal South West
|*||Mary Coughlan||10,530||26.42%||1.06||1||Made Quota||1|
|*||Pat Gallagher1||9,606||24.10%||0.96||2||Made Quota||2|
|*||Dinny McGinley||9,167||23.00%||0.92||3||Made Quota||3|
|Pearse Doherty||8,462||21.23%||0.85||(3)||Not Elected|
|Seamus Rodgers||1,111||2.79%||0.11||(2)||No expenses|
This seat could be turned on its head. If rumours are true and Mary Coughlan is shipped off to Europe and Pat “the Coop” Gallagher wins in the Euro election. This could see FF running 2 new candidates. Which could easily lead to FF not only losing 1 seat but unthinkably 2. Who would take 2 seats off them would be unclear. Sinn Fein are still not that transfer friendly and I am not sure that Fine Gael could take 2 seats. I think that FF would not get rid of two big hitters from here but if they do they could find themselves fighting for the last seat with a Fine Gael canidate and second Sinn Fein candidate. The big winner is going to be Sinn Fein. Taking a fair share of the FF vote.
Verdict: FF1 FG1 SF1
|*||Brendan Smith2||15,548||23.63%||1.18||1||Made Quota||2|
|*||Caoimhghin O Caolain||13,162||20.01%||1.00||1||Made Quota||3|
|*||Seymour Crawford||10,978||16.69%||0.83||4||Made Quota||4|
|Margaret Conlon||9,303||14.14%||0.71||4||Made Quota||5|
|Joe O’Reilly||9,550||14.52%||0.73||(4)||Not Elected|
I can’t see Rory O’Hanlon running again. So that means that Fianna Fail are going to be running a new name at a time when they are historicaly low in the polls.Yip we can all see that they are not getting elected. So what does that lend itself too? With a deminished FF vote Sinn Fein might be tempted to run a second canidate. With Caoimhghin O’Caolain being possibly their biggest vote getter. I am not sure SF is yet at the stage where they could take a second seat here. But could certainly be tried. Especially if Caoimhghin O’Caolain can top the poll and they can benefit from the downwards motion of Fianna Fail. I think Margaret Conlon will go. So that leaves two seats open. I think FG will pick one of them up on the general tide. The last seat could be a fight between FG SF and an independent. With an indepedent sweeping up the Anti-FF but not pro FG or pro SF vote.
Verdict: 1FF 2 FG 1SF 1Ind
|*||Seamus Kirk||10,190||18.52%||0.93||5||Made Quota||1|
|*||Dermot Ahern||9,982||18.14%||0.91||5||Made Quota||2|
|*||Fergus O’Dowd||8,387||15.25%||0.76||5||Made Quota||3|
|Mairead McGuinness2||5,199||9.45%||0.47||(6)||Not Elected|
This is increasing by 1 seat. So will that be enough to give FF 2 Seats? With a government big hitter in Dermot Ahern in the constiuency and possibly future leader of FF there could be a big vote for FF here. However that is not guarnteed. The most likely person to pick up the 4th seat is McGuinness if she runs. The question is who takes the last seat. I think Seamus Kirk and Dermot Ahern have a strong personnel vote. But at 64 Kirk might be thinking of retiring. If he does I can see the Greens pushing for his seat. The Greens vote has been steady in the last few months and they could attract transfers from all quarters. Mark Dearey is a strong local candidate and could be in the running. While FG could run a third candidate maybe a celebrity, even so the greens could spring a surprise especially if bad planning becomes an issue. It depends on how much the FF vote collapses. We could very much see Dermot Ahern lose out. But I think Kirk is the one likely to suffer but will it be enough to bring Dearey in? I am going to go yes no yes no yes. If the Greens bring down the government (mostly likely cause of the election I am forecasting) and Kirk Retires. The seat is his. So far this is the hardest one to call for me FF could hang on, Fine Gael could run another strong canidate. Also Labour. While the Greens and Sinn Fein have eaten into their vote here they may bite back. Comments on this appricated.
Verdict: 2FG 1 FF 1 SF 1G
|°||Willie Penrose||9,692||17.65%||0.88||5||Made Quota||1|
|§||Mary O’Rourke||8,215||14.96%||0.75||7||Made Quota||2|
|°||Peter Kelly4||7,720||14.06%||0.70||7||Made Quota||3|
|Nicky McFadden||5,359||9.76%||0.49||(7)||Not Elected|
Again another place where FF are going to suffer. Mae Sexton of the PD’s lost her seat here and her PD vote might be there for the taking. Mainly based around her Longford power base. Which may swing round Bannon. Willie Penrose is probably safe enough. Mary O’Rourke has lost her seat before and will not want to do so again. So there is probably going to be a fight between her, Donnie Cassidy and Peter Kelly with the likely beneficary being Fine Gael being able to sneak up the middle if they run a stong WestMeath canidate.
Verdict: 1 FF 2 FG 1 Lab
Total so far.
Total including last
Fine Gael on 29 (+8)
Fianna Fail on 14 (-14)
Labour 5 (+2)
Sinn Fein 5 (+2)
Ind 3 (+1)
Greens 1 (+1)