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Who Loses Out 3?
Read more about: Cavan-Monaghan, Donegal North East, Donegal South West, Longford-Westmeath, Louth, Who Would lose out 
This is the third in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much local polling to go on this is entirly my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.
Donegal North East
| § | Joe McHugh |  |
8,711 | 22.60% | 0.90 | 5 | Made Quota | 1 | |||||||
| * | Dr Jim McDaid |  |
6,724 | 17.44% | 0.70 | 7 | Made Quota | 2 | |||||||
| * | Niall Blaney | |
6,288 | 16.31% | 0.65 | 8 | Elected | 3 | |||||||
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| Padraig Mac Lochlainn |  |
6,733 | 17.47% | 0.70 | (8) | Not Elected | |||||||||
| * | Cecilia Keaveney | |
6,362 | 16.51% | 0.66 | (6) | Eliminated | ||||||||
This is going to be interesting. The renagade Jim McDaid, a Blaney and Sinn Fein young gun. All of them have a shot at the seat. McDaid has his certain distance from the Party after losing the whip. Blaney has the name and Sinn Fein are likely to sweep up the anti-FF vote. I think Blaney is safe with his name. But I think himself and McDaid will hemerage enough votes to give Sinn Fein that seat they always thought they should have.Joe McHugh is safe.
Verdict: FF1 FG1 SF 1
Donegal South West
| * | Mary Coughlan | |
10,530 | 26.42% | 1.06 | 1 | Made Quota | 1 | |||||||
| * | Pat Gallagher1 | |
9,606 | 24.10% | 0.96 | 2 | Made Quota | 2 | |||||||
| * | Dinny McGinley | |
9,167 | 23.00% | 0.92 | 3 | Made Quota | 3 | |||||||
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| Pearse Doherty | |
8,462 | 21.23% | 0.85 | (3) | Not Elected | |||||||||
| Seamus Rodgers |  |
1,111 | 2.79% | 0.11 | (2) | No expenses | |||||||||
This seat could be turned on its head. If rumours are true and Mary Coughlan is shipped off to Europe and Pat “the Coop” Gallagher wins in the Euro election. This could see FF running 2 new candidates. Which could easily lead to FF not only losing 1 seat but unthinkably 2. Who would take 2 seats off them would be unclear. Sinn Fein are still not that transfer friendly and I am not sure that Fine Gael could take 2 seats. I think that FF would not get rid of two big hitters from here but if they do they could find themselves fighting for the last seat with a Fine Gael canidate and second Sinn Fein candidate. The big winner is going to be Sinn Fein. Taking a fair share of the FF vote.
Verdict: FF1 FG1 SF1
Cavan Monaghan
| * | Rory O’Hanlon |  |
Unopposed | 1 | Elected | 1 | |||||||||
| * | Brendan Smith2 | |
15,548 | 23.63% | 1.18 | 1 | Made Quota | 2 | |||||||
| * | Caoimhghin O Caolain | |
13,162 | 20.01% | 1.00 | 1 | Made Quota | 3 | |||||||
| * | Seymour Crawford | |
10,978 | 16.69% | 0.83 | 4 | Made Quota | 4 | |||||||
| Margaret Conlon | |
9,303 | 14.14% | 0.71 | 4 | Made Quota | 5 | ||||||||
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| Joe O’Reilly | |
9,550 | 14.52% | 0.73 | (4) | Not Elected | |||||||||
| * | Paudge Connolly |  |
3,955 | 6.01% | 0.30 | (3) | Eliminated |
I can’t see Rory O’Hanlon running again. So that means that Fianna Fail are going to be running a new name at a time when they are historicaly low in the polls.Yip we can all see that they are not getting elected. So what does that lend itself too? With a deminished FF vote Sinn Fein might be tempted to run a second canidate. With Caoimhghin O’Caolain being possibly their biggest vote getter. I am not sure SF is yet at the stage where they could take a second seat here. But could certainly be tried. Especially if Caoimhghin O’Caolain can top the poll and they can benefit from the downwards motion of Fianna Fail. I think Margaret Conlon will go. So that leaves two seats open. I think FG will pick one of them up on the general tide. The last seat could be a fight between FG SF and an independent. With an indepedent sweeping up the Anti-FF but not pro FG or pro SF vote.
Verdict: 1FF 2 FG 1SF 1Ind
Louth
| * | Seamus Kirk | |
10,190 | 18.52% | 0.93 | 5 | Made Quota | 1 | |||||||
| * | Dermot Ahern | |
9,982 | 18.14% | 0.91 | 5 | Made Quota | 2 | |||||||
| * | Fergus O’Dowd | |
8,387 | 15.25% | 0.76 | 5 | Made Quota | 3 | |||||||
| * | Arthur Morgan | |
8,274 | 15.04% | 0.75 | 6 | Elected | 4 | |||||||
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| Mairead McGuinness2 | |
5,199 | 9.45% | 0.47 | (6) | Not Elected | |||||||||
| Mark Dearey |  |
4,172 | 7.58% | 0.38 | (5) | Eliminated | |||||||||
This is increasing by 1 seat. So will that be enough to give FF 2 Seats? With a government big hitter in Dermot Ahern in the constiuency and possibly future leader of FF there could be a big vote for FF here. However that is not guarnteed. The most likely person to pick up the 4th seat is McGuinness if she runs. The question is who takes the last seat. I think Seamus Kirk and Dermot Ahern have a strong personnel vote. But at 64 Kirk might be thinking of retiring. If he does I can see the Greens pushing for his seat. The Greens vote has been steady in the last few months and they could attract transfers from all quarters. Mark Dearey is a strong local candidate and could be in the running. While FG could run a third candidate maybe a celebrity, even so the greens could spring a surprise especially if bad planning becomes an issue. It depends on how much the FF vote collapses. We could very much see Dermot Ahern lose out. But I think Kirk is the one likely to suffer but will it be enough to bring Dearey in? I am going to go yes no yes no yes. If the Greens bring down the government (mostly likely cause of the election I am forecasting) and Kirk Retires. The seat is his. So far this is the hardest one to call for me FF could hang on, Fine Gael could run another strong canidate. Also Labour. While the Greens and Sinn Fein have eaten into their vote here they may bite back. Comments on this appricated.
Verdict: 2FG 1 FF 1 SF 1G
Longford WestMeath
| ° | Willie Penrose | |
9,692 | 17.65% | 0.88 | 5 | Made Quota | 1 | |||||||
| § | Mary O’Rourke | |
8,215 | 14.96% | 0.75 | 7 | Made Quota | 2 | |||||||
| ° | Peter Kelly4 | |
7,720 | 14.06% | 0.70 | 7 | Made Quota | 3 | |||||||
| § | James Bannon | |
7,652 | 13.93% | 0.70 | 7 | Elected | 4 | |||||||
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| Nicky McFadden | |
5,359 | 9.76% | 0.49 | (7) | Not Elected | |||||||||
| ° | Donie Cassidy | |
6,664 | 12.13% | 0.61 | (6) | Eliminated | ||||||||
Again another place where FF are going to suffer. Mae Sexton of the PD’s lost her seat here and her PD vote might be there for the taking. Mainly based around her Longford power base. Which may swing round Bannon. Willie Penrose is probably safe enough. Mary O’Rourke has lost her seat before and will not want to do so again. So there is probably going to be a fight between her, Donnie Cassidy and Peter Kelly with the likely beneficary being Fine Gael being able to sneak up the middle if they run a stong WestMeath canidate.
Verdict: 1 FF 2 FG 1 Lab
Total so far.
Total including last
Fine Gael on 29 (+8)
Fianna Fail on 14 (-14)
Labour 5 (+2)
Sinn Fein 5 (+2)
Ind 3 (+1)
Greens 1 (+1)
Louth – the Meath parts of Drogheda suburbs have been moved into the constituency, and there’s a strong Labour vote there. Labour is much more likely to pick up a seat here than the Greens. Nash was pushed down last time by media coverage of a rogue poll bigging up Mark Deary’s chances, but is running in a different Ward for the locals, so will have been elected for most of Drogheda by the time the next General rolls around. Paul Bell is the other possible candidate for Labour, and there’s plenty of people still around who remember Michael Bell in the past.
I agree that the new parts of the constituency hold a stronger Labour vote but Nash would need more than this to do it, he needs quite a surge to make enough of an impact in North Louth, where both SF and the Greens are strong. If elected to the County council in June, Dearey will also be representing a much larger constituency than he is currently and his strong record on the town council and his guaranteed hard work on the County Council will increase his profile further. I think the Greens are in with an even better chance in Louth at the next General Election as the party has expanded at both ends of the constituency since 2007, for me it will depend largely on the circumstances in which a General Election comes about. A strong FG candidate will be the threat to Dearey, not Nash.
Cavan-Monaghan: I’d expect the seats to be divided geographically as much as by party. Cavan has only one TD at the moment – Brendan Smith – and he will be returned along with Joe O’Reilly for FG (currently a Senator). In Monaghan, Seymour Crawford will take the FG seat (and will take most of the Cavan Protestant vote in addition) and I suspect Margaret Conlon will hold on for FF. Caoimhghin Ó Caoláin (or a successor if he retires) will easily take the SF seat. SF’s problem in trying for a second seat is that their vote is heavily skewed geographically towards Monaghan and their candidate base is *very* weak in Cavan.
Longford-Westmeath: Mae Sexton is standing in the county council elections as an independent, but frankly she hasn’t much of a base left for other parties to raid. Bannon will get in comfortably on the Longford FG vote to provide the Dáil sketch-writers with another five years’ worth of entertainment. Willie Penrose will cruise home and Labour will probably try to run a second candidate either in Athlone or Longford. I would expect Nicky McFadden to take a second seat for FG – picking up some of whatever “women’s vote” there is in addition to the general improvement for FG. FF will be faced with the problem of only having one very low-profile sitting TD at the next election (Kelly) with new candidates in both Athlone and Mullingar. They’ll hold one but it’s anyone’s guess who it’ll be.
there,s no way that f.f. will drop from 3 seats to1 in cavan monaghan, both smith in cavan and conlon in monaghan will get returned, joe reilly has to soon make it for f.g. in cavan,or he can give up! o caolain is too proud to run a second candidate,he would prefer to top the pole,anyway they have no base in cavan.