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Who is going to lose out 6? you know like boy

Read more about: Cork East, Cork North Central, Cork North West, Cork South Central, Cork South West, Who Would lose out     Print This Post

This is the Sixth in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much  local polling to go on this is entirely my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.

Cork East 


* Michael Ahern1    Fianna Fail Lozenge    10,350    19.24%    0.96    3      Made Quota      1
* Ned O’Keeffe    Fianna Fail Lozenge    10,081    18.74%    0.94    4      Made Quota      2
* David Stanton    Fine Gael Lozenge    7,686    14.28%    0.71    6      Elected      3
  Sean Sherlock    Labour Lozenge    7,295    13.56%    0.68    6      Elected      4

§ Paul Bradford    Fine Gael Lozenge    8,916    16.57%    0.83    (6)      Not Elected       
  John Mulvihill1 Snr    Labour Lozenge    3,954    7.35%    0.37    (4)      Eliminated       
 

This is another intriguing seat and one Fine Gael are certain to target. Here we have two old war horses of Irish politics. Between them having won 15 elections. So they know how to win here. But this is no ordinary election. FF at record lows. Also Ned O’Keeffe has ducked in and out of the Fianna Fail party. Added to that the Fine Gael vote is not that poor here. Labour running a two candidate strategy managed  keep their(WP/DL/LAB) long standing seat here too. This constituency could very well be a microcosm of the election at large. The old guard of Fianna Fail hanging on dearly to the parties life while Labour and Fine Gael chase them down.  If the Fianna Fail vote here drops here is will spread evenly between Labour and Fine Gael and lead to a dog fight. I think Fianna Fail could be in trouble here. There vote will remain strong. While not at the same levels, 8000 might be a good number. The problem is that they may find it hard to gain transfers. These transfers well go to and from Labour to Fine Gael and probably see them racing up on the inside to threaten Fianna Fail seats. Ned O’Keefe standing in the Euro Elections might win FF a euro seat which would be a disaster for the party. Sealing the seat for Fine Gael. However he is unlikely to win and Ned is likely to still trundle on. Ahern however after 27 years in the Dail might bow out to Fine Gael. 

Verdict: 1FF 2FG 1Lab

 

Cork North Central

* Billy Kelleher    Fianna Fail Lozenge    9,456    22.33%    1.12    1      Made Quota      1
* Bernard Allen    Fine Gael Lozenge    6,866    16.21%    0.81    7      Made Quota      2
* Kathleen Lynch    Labour Lozenge    5,221    12.33%    0.62    7      Made Quota      3
* Noel O’Flynn    Fianna Fail Lozenge    5,680    13.41%    0.67    7      Elected      4

  Gerry Kelly1    Fine Gael Lozenge    4,808    11.35%    0.57    (7)      Not Elected       
  Jonathan O’Brien    Sinn Fein Lozenge    3,456    8.16%    0.41    (6)      Eliminated       
 

 

 

 

If you look down through the list of candidates in this constituency you see something interesting. If you combine the socialist party, workers party, Sinn Fein and Greens you get about 16% of first preference in the constituency. coupled to the the Labour percentages you come to about 28% of the vote being on the left. Add into that mix a drop in vote for Fianna Fail and a Labour resurgence. And you are being to look at a vote of over 30%. This makes for the fascinating idea that Labour could actually run 2 candidates and try getting two of them elected. They would have to monopolises the transfers of the various left groupings and manage the vote very well. But it is not going to happen even in the heady days of 1992 when they topped the poll their cousins in DL did not poll majorly well. And then it was a 5 seater.  So unless Gilmore can produce some real magic they will just take the one. A drop in FF vote coupled with them being transferphobic will give the seat to FG. Although Sinn Fein if they can take some to the FF and Various left vote might spring a surprise. 

Verdict: 1FF 1 lab 2FG

Cork North West.

 


  Michael Creed1    Fine Gael Lozenge    10,516    22.56%    0.90    3      Made Quota      1
* Michael Moynihan2    Fianna Fail Lozenge    10,146    21.76%    0.87    4      Made Quota      2
° Batt O’Keeffe    Fianna Fail Lozenge    8,040    17.25%    0.69    5      Made Quota      3

* Gerard Murphy    Fine Gael Lozenge    7,397    15.87%    0.63    (5)      Not Elected       
* Donal Moynihan    Fianna Fail Lozenge    6,546    14.04%    0.56    (3)      Eliminated       
 

 

I have been hearing rumours of Batt O’Keefe not standing again. At 65 he certain is at retirement age and not caring about re-election can go after university fees and teachers all he likes. But it was also rumoured Messi was going to join Manchester City so take that with a packet of table salt. But it will be interesting to see what happens to him in the next election. Back before 1992 Fine Gael had two seats here and it is possible they could do so again. However that was before the redrawing of it brought Batt O’Keefe in from Cork South Central.  However the  The popularity of Batt O’Keefe will be the determining factor. It is hard to call but I think Fianna Fail can hang on. 

Verdict: 2FF 1FG

Cork South Central


* Micheal Martin    Fianna Fail Lozenge    11,226    19.01%    1.14    1      Made Quota      1
  Michael McGrath2    Fianna Fail Lozenge    9,866    16.70%    1.00    1      Made Quota      2
  Deirdre Clune    Fine Gael Lozenge    5,739    9.72%    0.58    6      Made Quota      3
  Ciaran Lynch    Labour Lozenge    5,466    9.25%    0.56    6      Made Quota      4
* Simon Coveney    Fine Gael Lozenge    5,863    9.93%    0.60    6      Elected      5

* John Dennehy    Fianna Fail Lozenge    5,062    8.57%    0.51    (6)      Not Elected       
* Dan Boyle3    Green/Comhaontas Glas Lozenge    4,945    8.37%    0.50    (5)      Eliminated       
  Jerry Buttimer    Fine Gael Lozenge    5,180    8.77%    0.53    (4)      Eliminated       
 

 

 

 

 

Michael Martin will be vying for the leadership of the party after the election and a strong polling here will do him the world of good in that respect. For FF to not get two seats here would be shocking. Dan Boyle will have hopes of coming back but I am not sure that he will. the FF vote will be down and will split to Labour and Fine Gael but with 48% of the vote last time out. I can’t see that Halving to put them in danger of 2 seats. Although they may have to fight hard for the last. No change 

Verdict: 2 FF 2 FG 1 Lab.

Cork South West


  Christy O’Sullivan    Fianna Fail Lozenge    10,333    24.31%    0.97    2      Made Quota      1
* Jim O’Keeffe    Fine Gael Lozenge    7,560    17.79%    0.71    4      Made Quota      2
  PJ Sheehan1    Fine Gael Lozenge    7,739    18.21%    0.73    4      Elected      3

* Denis O’Donovan    Fianna Fail Lozenge    7,760    18.26%    0.73    (4)      Not Elected       
  Michael McCarthy    Labour Lozenge    4,095    9.64%    0.39    (3)      Eliminated       
  Quentin 

 

 

 

Fine Gael took 2 seats here last time out and giving the election that is in it. they are not going to lose them. If FF go for it too strongly then Labour might be able to move up and take a third seat off them. But that requires a large collapse in their vote. Larger then the polls suggest. But it is not impossible. 

Verdict: 2FG 1 FF

Fine Gael on 56 (+15)

Fianna Fail on 35 (-24)

Labour 15 (+4)

Sinn Fein 6 (+2)

Ind 5 (+3)

Greens 2 (+1)

 

 

 

 

Data from the excellent electionsireland.org


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