Who is going to lose out 6? you know like boy

This is the Sixth in a series of posts looking at who would or would not keep their seats if an election was called now. With not much  local polling to go on this is entirely my opinion and probably wrong. If you have any ideas on it please drop a comment.

Cork East 

*	Michael Ahern1				10,350		19.24%		0.96		3		Made Quota		1
*	Ned O’Keeffe				10,081		18.74%		0.94		4		Made Quota		2
*	David Stanton				7,686		14.28%		0.71		6		Elected		3
	Sean Sherlock				7,295		13.56%		0.68		6		Elected		4
§	Paul Bradford				8,916		16.57%		0.83		(6)		Not Elected
	John Mulvihill1 Snr				3,954		7.35%		0.37		(4)		Eliminated

This is another intriguing seat and one Fine Gael are certain to target. Here we have two old war horses of Irish politics. Between them having won 15 elections. So they know how to win here. But this is no ordinary election. FF at record lows. Also Ned O’Keeffe has ducked in and out of the Fianna Fail party. Added to that the Fine Gael vote is not that poor here. Labour running a two candidate strategy managed  keep their(WP/DL/LAB) long standing seat here too. This constituency could very well be a microcosm of the election at large. The old guard of Fianna Fail hanging on dearly to the parties life while Labour and Fine Gael chase them down.  If the Fianna Fail vote here drops here is will spread evenly between Labour and Fine Gael and lead to a dog fight. I think Fianna Fail could be in trouble here. There vote will remain strong. While not at the same levels, 8000 might be a good number. The problem is that they may find it hard to gain transfers. These transfers well go to and from Labour to Fine Gael and probably see them racing up on the inside to threaten Fianna Fail seats. Ned O’Keefe standing in the Euro Elections might win FF a euro seat which would be a disaster for the party. Sealing the seat for Fine Gael. However he is unlikely to win and Ned is likely to still trundle on. Ahern however after 27 years in the Dail might bow out to Fine Gael. 

Verdict: 1FF 2FG 1Lab

Cork North Central

*	Billy Kelleher				9,456		22.33%		1.12		1		Made Quota		1
*	Bernard Allen				6,866		16.21%		0.81		7		Made Quota		2
*	Kathleen Lynch				5,221		12.33%		0.62		7		Made Quota		3
*	Noel O’Flynn				5,680		13.41%		0.67		7		Elected		4
	Gerry Kelly1				4,808		11.35%		0.57		(7)		Not Elected
	Jonathan O’Brien				3,456		8.16%		0.41		(6)		Eliminated

If you look down through the list of candidates in this constituency you see something interesting. If you combine the socialist party, workers party, Sinn Fein and Greens you get about 16% of first preference in the constituency. coupled to the the Labour percentages you come to about 28% of the vote being on the left. Add into that mix a drop in vote for Fianna Fail and a Labour resurgence. And you are being to look at a vote of over 30%. This makes for the fascinating idea that Labour could actually run 2 candidates and try getting two of them elected. They would have to monopolises the transfers of the various left groupings and manage the vote very well. But it is not going to happen even in the heady days of 1992 when they topped the poll their cousins in DL did not poll majorly well. And then it was a 5 seater.  So unless Gilmore can produce some real magic they will just take the one. A drop in FF vote coupled with them being transferphobic will give the seat to FG. Although Sinn Fein if they can take some to the FF and Various left vote might spring a surprise. 

Verdict: 1FF 1 lab 2FG

Cork North West.

	Michael Creed1				10,516		22.56%		0.90		3		Made Quota		1
*	Michael Moynihan2				10,146		21.76%		0.87		4		Made Quota		2
°	Batt O’Keeffe				8,040		17.25%		0.69		5		Made Quota		3
*	Gerard Murphy				7,397		15.87%		0.63		(5)		Not Elected
*	Donal Moynihan				6,546		14.04%		0.56		(3)		Eliminated

I have been hearing rumours of Batt O’Keefe not standing again. At 65 he certain is at retirement age and not caring about re-election can go after university fees and teachers all he likes. But it was also rumoured Messi was going to join Manchester City so take that with a packet of table salt. But it will be interesting to see what happens to him in the next election. Back before 1992 Fine Gael had two seats here and it is possible they could do so again. However that was before the redrawing of it brought Batt O’Keefe in from Cork South Central.  However the  The popularity of Batt O’Keefe will be the determining factor. It is hard to call but I think Fianna Fail can hang on. 

Verdict: 2FF 1FG

Cork South Central

*	Micheal Martin				11,226		19.01%		1.14		1		Made Quota		1
	Michael McGrath2				9,866		16.70%		1.00		1		Made Quota		2
	Deirdre Clune				5,739		9.72%		0.58		6		Made Quota		3
	Ciaran Lynch				5,466		9.25%		0.56		6		Made Quota		4
*	Simon Coveney				5,863		9.93%		0.60		6		Elected		5
*	John Dennehy				5,062		8.57%		0.51		(6)		Not Elected
*	Dan Boyle3				4,945		8.37%		0.50		(5)		Eliminated
	Jerry Buttimer				5,180		8.77%		0.53		(4)		Eliminated

Michael Martin will be vying for the leadership of the party after the election and a strong polling here will do him the world of good in that respect. For FF to not get two seats here would be shocking. Dan Boyle will have hopes of coming back but I am not sure that he will. the FF vote will be down and will split to Labour and Fine Gael but with 48% of the vote last time out. I can’t see that Halving to put them in danger of 2 seats. Although they may have to fight hard for the last. No change 

Verdict: 2 FF 2 FG 1 Lab.

Cork South West

	Christy O’Sullivan				10,333		24.31%		0.97		2		Made Quota		1
*	Jim O’Keeffe				7,560		17.79%		0.71		4		Made Quota		2
	PJ Sheehan1				7,739		18.21%		0.73		4		Elected		3
*	Denis O’Donovan				7,760		18.26%		0.73		(4)		Not Elected
	Michael McCarthy				4,095		9.64%		0.39		(3)		Eliminated
	Quentin

Fine Gael took 2 seats here last time out and giving the election that is in it. they are not going to lose them. If FF go for it too strongly then Labour might be able to move up and take a third seat off them. But that requires a large collapse in their vote. Larger then the polls suggest. But it is not impossible. 

Verdict: 2FG 1 FF

Fine Gael on 56 (+15)

Fianna Fail on 35 (-24)

Labour 15 (+4)

Sinn Fein 6 (+2)

Ind 5 (+3)

Greens 2 (+1)

Data from the excellent electionsireland.org