The Collapse of a Fianna Fail vote

Stephen Spillane has interesting details of the Evening Echo poll conducted by Landsdowne in Cork city and county.

• Fianna Fail – 9%
• Fine Gael – 23%
• Labour – 20%
• Green Party – 4%
• Sinn Fein – 6%
• Socialists – 0%
• Independent/Libertas – 16%
• No Party/Vote for Personality – 23%
• Don’t Know – 13%

The wow factor is that the core Fianna Fail vote, that not tied to personality, appears to be down to 9%. The idea of ‘personality’ in a poll and how you measure it raises more questions than it answers but we can probably assume that when presented with a list of options most voters asked whether they support, say, Ned O Keeffe or Fianna Fail. For a mere 9% the party is the primary site of their loyalty. For as much as 23% it is the person that they know/follow. It is in now way safe to assume that the full 23% vote FF or vote at all. So the figure for FF at 9% will come as a bit of a shocker.

It probably won’t worry Brian Crowley too much, a man who is most certainly categorised under the personality vote rather than party but in the local elections – which are getting overshadowed as national discussions on Child abuse by the church, the composition of NAMA and the fate of our jobs dominate the electoral agenda.

As Stephen notes “the main issues highlighted in the poll are Cost of Living (74%), Healthcare (67%) and Job Security (67%). Something we can all agree on.” We might put the FF showing down to the decisions to downgrade A&E services in hospitals in an effort to centralise services but that isn’t an isolated case – it is local but not isolated. In a sense the local elections will bring out at the polls the scale to which national narratives have had real, local impact. People will, as always, vote on local issues but that is not the comfort blanket to government they might think it to be.

Each locality has hospital services to worry about, roads to get fixed, services which have been cut and family members who have been laid off. That local issues come up on the door doesn’t mean people are ignoring national issues to vote with their pocketbook/self-interest. If the above poll is even slightly accurate, it can mean that the local is the worst hit by abstract narratives, it is the site where they are concrete and real. That is why FF are on 9% and on track for a potentially devastating rejection.

Interesting that Fine Gael also appear depressed at 23% while Labour are on trend with other polls at 20%. The scale of personality in Cork politics is probably a major factor accouting for the disparity as both FF and FG have a lot of dynasties and long-serving TDs who have built individual bases and profiles (Min. Martin). This most certainly means it is game on for a General Election in 12 months or less.

I have no idea how much stock to put in these numbers, only time will tell. I doubt you get to print FF at 9% much in your life.