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O’Toole on Ending Coke and Pepsi Politics
Read more about: Democracy, Features, Ireland, Labour Party 
Fintan O Toole has an interesting article in the Times this morning from an electoral point of view. The thesis has been expounded before, at key points in recent electoral history, Labour has stepped forward to prevent the implosion of the civil war division and give either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael the kiss of life.
In 1992, Fianna Fáil, under Albert Reynolds, had its worst general election result since 1927, with its share of the vote falling below 40 per cent. Fianna Fáil lost 10 seats…
As Reynolds’s press secretary Seán Duignan noted, “we were on a roll, downhill”. To the amazement of most voters, it was Dick Spring’s resurgent Labour that threw itself in the way to stop that downhill momentum. Fianna Fáil was given the transfusion that always sustains life in politics – power. The moment was lost. The system survived.
Ten years later, the moment came again, this time with Fine Gael. In the 2002 general election, Michael Noonan led his party to outright disaster. Fine Gael got just 19 per cent of the vote and lost 23 seats. It ended up with just three seats in Dublin, fewer than the Greens. A large chunk of its front bench (including Alan Shatter, Alan Dukes, Nora Owen and Jim Mitchell) was wiped out. In panic, the demoralised rump elected one of the few experienced TDs left standing – the unconvincing Enda Kenny – as its leader. Fine Gael was moribund.
Again, Labour took a deep breath, stood over the prone body of a wounded beast, and delivered the kiss of life.
Yes, much of that is true – half the reason Pat Rabbitte is no longer leader of his party – while Enda Kenny remains in situ – is that he didn’t deliver government on the back of a gamble that saved the Fine Gael party.
Fintan is largely correct to assert that the Labour party will always have a hand in perpetuating its status as a half-party within the system. Any time it enters coalition with Fine Gael or Fianna Fail it supports the larger party in perpetutating the coke/pepsi system of two similar large parties.
Yet the medicine for ridding the system of its old civil war cleavage and replacing it with a more conventional, though equally shrinking, left-right cleavage is not palatable. For the way the polls run at the moment suggest that Labour will get the bounce they are looking for – perhaps even sufficient to match the Spring tide.
30+ TDs is a powerful number and any leader will seek to expand that number in the subsequent election, to do so at the expense of Fine Gael and, more likely, Fianna Fail. That means head to head combat with both parties as part of a system of beliefs to which Labour is opposed. I have tried in my mind to come up with the logical conclusion to this logic, Fintan’s logic and all I can see is two options. I would love your thoughts on this.
1) Do not enter government after the election. Tell Fianna Fail and Fine Gael that if they want power, they get together and govern as a right-wing coalition. Labour will not perpetuate their dominance. Yet the problem with this is that Labour will run on a platform of being able to govern, Gilmore as Taoiseach etc.
How will the electorate respond if that party refuses to engage in any government formation after they have been given a large increase in sitting TDs?
2) Tell the electorate that the only way they will go into power is with a coalition of like-minded parties. That would raise the hoary chestnut of coalition with Sinn Fein and the Green Party as well as a few independents – though left independents are increasingly thin on the ground. How many votes does this get? Voters who are in a ‘swing’ mentality want instant change – the next government they vote in will be charged with adjusting budget measures and reorienting budget cuts.
Will they support a party on the never never that their coalition will get sufficient support? A classic collective action problem. One augmented by the problem that they are unlikely to vote for a party that won’t go into government to follow through on that support with policies.
So what do Labour do? Run as if they will go into power only if Gilmore is Taoiseach? Force the electorate’s hand? Clearly they desire a different party system, even one where all three are relatively equal – how do they get that system from the vice like grip of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?
On Fintan’s logic it seems to be by ‘withholding’ for five years and hoping the big beasts eat each other.
Tell Fianna Fail and Fine Gael that if they want power, they get together and govern as a right-wing coalition. Labour will not perpetuate their dominance. Yet the problem with this is that Labour will run on a platform of being able to govern, Gilmore as Taoiseach etc.In the current climate it would make perfect sense to force FF & FG together (letting them take the blame for wrecking the economy and the heat for fixing it) and take the long view that another election or two later Labour, Greens and SF might have grown to an extent to present a real idealogical alternative. One problem is that the long view is not something politicians really do. Another is that we’d probably have no healthcare or education systems left after 5 or 10 years of FF/FG government. It’s an awful hoor of a problem for Labour.
Labour to get to a position as the king marker have a long way to go. Tripling their vote from last time out would give them 60 seats. 23 seats below the magic 83. For the Greens and SF to give them that 23 seats they would need to more then double themselves. That is a massive vote. Labour don’t have the national structure to take 2-3 seats in many 4-5 seater. They simply don’t have the infrastructure. That would take 20 years to build up through local elections and building up names.
One thing that might help them is a big FG win and go into power with say the greens/indo. and SF+Lab+left indos/greens can get more then Fianna Fail. If they form a technical group they could put Gilmore opposite Enda as the main opposition and FF in the usual Labour corner. If Labour can be seen as main opposition then that might be the path to overcome FF
Cian, this is the most difficult challenge in Irish politics – ending the 2 and a half party system and, so, Labour’s half-status. The tactical complexities could fill several Irish Times article and blog posts but I’ll just focus on a couple:
First, the starting point is not what the Left does after an election but before – and well before. If Labour were serious about challenging for power and, so, becoming a full party (electing Gilmore as Taoiseach is the final element) it must create an alternative coalition in political society, and doing this while in opposition. This requires a dialogue with Sinn Fein and the Greens – each tricky in different ways. Sinn Fein’s intervention with positive economic proposals, however, makes this less problematic on policy grounds while dialogue with the Greens merely accepts that that party has a role to play in a progressive dominated coalition.
However, this must go beyond just political parties. Seeking out a stronger relationship with trade unions – both its affiliated members and non-affiliate unions – could reap considerable benefits. Further, working with social organisations – at national and local level – could also build a larger platform. This, of course, requires a concrete policy focus.
Second, the spin-off dynamic is that Irish politics would become a three-corner fight. If the ‘enemy’ is conservatism – and, so, the political parties that espouse right-wing policies – then the Left would be attacking the Government and Fine Gael without favour, where criticism is merited. The Left would be seeking to gain at the expense of both – unlike the current situation where Labour only targets the Government. When Labour actually puts forward specific progressive policies, as opposed to generalised demands easily co-opted by the Right, this differentiation becomes acute. Witness Fine Gael’s opposition to Labour’s motion on bank nationalisation. This is not a policy once-off – indeed, the very edifice of a stimulus programme will bring out those differences even further.
Third, it’s not that progressive parties need an absolute majority in the Dail – as Simon suggests – but rather a comfortable majority in coalition. That there will be a right-wing element in such a coalition may be a contradiction but it’s not likely the Left will end the monopoly of power that the Right has enjoyed for decades overnight. Will this minority party be Fianna Fail or Fine Gael? Difficult to say and much depends on the arithmetic and internal dynamics within each party as a result of the new competitive 3-corner model. Suffice it to say, there are scenarios which do not rely on (a) a Dail majority for the Left and/or (b) an automatic FF/FG coalition.
Simon is right regarding Labour’s poor organisational infrastructure. Which means that challenging for power is not only a policy and strategic challenge but also an organisational one. Is Labour up for it? It can be if it seriously wants to end its half-party status. However, if it sees its role as ‘getting into government’ (i.e. doing a deal with FG), it may not be so ambitious.
At the end of the day, the Left can only make the gains needed to create a shift in the political dynamic by winning people over to progressive policies. If this is not done, all the tactics and organisation-building will come to nought. Politics is still about politics. At least, it should be.
How Left is the Labour party? If FF and FG are center right, then its hard to see Labour as anything more than center left. The Greens are vaguely left. Sinn Fein are more like a splatter across the political spectrum than a proper leftish party (even by the standards of the Republic’s political system).Labour probably have as much in common with FF as they have with Sinn Fein, but based on their performance in the North, SF are pefectly capable of governing from the center.
Perhaps if they force FF and FG Labour could end Coke and Pepsi politics in Ireland, but the new system would still be largely based on fizzy drinks that rot the nation’s teeth.