Comments on: Irish Times TNS/MRBI European Constituency Polls http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/irish-times-tnsmrbi-european-constituency-polls/ Coverage of Irish Politics, News and Current Affairs Thu, 09 Feb 2012 19:43:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Daniel Sullivan http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/irish-times-tnsmrbi-european-constituency-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-119448 Daniel Sullivan Sun, 31 May 2009 17:31:11 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=6068#comment-119448 Pete, as KN notes the MOE for the Euros is higher than the national poll as the latter was poll of 2000 people version 500 for the Euro constituencies. O'Malley won't have much but he could have 4/5%. Even the electoral giant that was Clifford T. Reid got nearly 2.5% last time. So 4/5% for O'Malley isn't that hard to imagine. http://www.electionsireland.org/candidate.cfm?id=5777 Pete, as KN notes the MOE for the Euros is higher than the national poll as the latter was poll of 2000 people version 500 for the Euro constituencies. O’Malley won’t have much but he could have 4/5%. Even the electoral giant that was Clifford T. Reid got nearly 2.5% last time. So 4/5% for O’Malley isn’t that hard to imagine.

http://www.electionsireland.org/candidate.cfm?id=5777

]]> By: KN http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/irish-times-tnsmrbi-european-constituency-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-119421 KN Sun, 31 May 2009 00:16:12 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=6068#comment-119421 The +/- 2% MoE is for the 2000 strong national poll. The 500 strong regional polls for the Euros that make up the 2000 have a +/- 4.5% MoE. The +/- 2% MoE is for the 2000 strong national poll. The 500 strong regional polls for the Euros that make up the 2000 have a +/- 4.5% MoE.

]]> By: Pete Baker http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/irish-times-tnsmrbi-european-constituency-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-119414 Pete Baker Sat, 30 May 2009 22:14:17 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=6068#comment-119414 Dan The report gives the margin of error as +/-2% Dan

The report gives the margin of error as +/-2%

]]> By: Paddy Matthews http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/irish-times-tnsmrbi-european-constituency-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-119413 Paddy Matthews Sat, 30 May 2009 22:04:06 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=6068#comment-119413 <i>East looks a big ask for FG now, not so much because I think Phelan’s support has really changed that much (the margin of error is +/- 4% but because it needs to be showing a momentum upwards. And SF will transfer more to Labour than anyone else. I would wonder if Alyward’s numbers might be soft though and if say he was really on about 16% and Phelan got 12/13% then who knows. I still believe there is the chance of a 2nd FG seat there but it may now have to be the FF one.</i> At this stage in 2004, the MRBI poll showed Mairead McGuinness having almost caught up with Avril Doyle and the two of them on 17% and 16% (from memory). <i>I can’t see O’Malley transferring too heavily to Labour or FF when he is eliminated.</i> Frankly, O'Malley will have damn all to transfer. FG's problem is that Phelan is an unknown outside of Kilkenny, whereas in 2004, Doyle was the MEP in situ and McGuinness was well-known although without any record as a politician. McGuinness has an attractive personality and is able to get votes on that basis that wouldn't normally go to FG, but that has the downside that they're more likely to go astray on transfers and are not going to be "manageable" to even up the two-candidate split. I also think Avril putting the boot into Childers did FG no good at all. If you're going to attack a candidate for being a Foxrock princess, it's unwise to have the attack coming from someone whose mannerisms make the average duchess look like a chavette. East looks a big ask for FG now, not so much because I think Phelan’s support has really changed that much (the margin of error is +/- 4% but because it needs to be showing a momentum upwards. And SF will transfer more to Labour than anyone else. I would wonder if Alyward’s numbers might be soft though and if say he was really on about 16% and Phelan got 12/13% then who knows. I still believe there is the chance of a 2nd FG seat there but it may now have to be the FF one.

At this stage in 2004, the MRBI poll showed Mairead McGuinness having almost caught up with Avril Doyle and the two of them on 17% and 16% (from memory).

I can’t see O’Malley transferring too heavily to Labour or FF when he is eliminated.

Frankly, O’Malley will have damn all to transfer.

FG’s problem is that Phelan is an unknown outside of Kilkenny, whereas in 2004, Doyle was the MEP in situ and McGuinness was well-known although without any record as a politician.

McGuinness has an attractive personality and is able to get votes on that basis that wouldn’t normally go to FG, but that has the downside that they’re more likely to go astray on transfers and are not going to be “manageable” to even up the two-candidate split.

I also think Avril putting the boot into Childers did FG no good at all. If you’re going to attack a candidate for being a Foxrock princess, it’s unwise to have the attack coming from someone whose mannerisms make the average duchess look like a chavette.

]]> By: Dan Sullivan http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/irish-times-tnsmrbi-european-constituency-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-119399 Dan Sullivan Sat, 30 May 2009 16:39:09 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=6068#comment-119399 East looks a big ask for FG now, not so much because I think Phelan's support has really changed that much (the margin of error is +/- 4% but because it needs to be showing a momentum upwards. And SF will transfer more to Labour than anyone else. I would wonder if Alyward's numbers might be soft though and if say he was really on about 16% and Phelan got 12/13% then who knows. I still believe there is the chance of a 2nd FG seat there but it may now have to be the FF one. I can't see O'Malley transferring too heavily to Labour or FF when he is eliminated. East looks a big ask for FG now, not so much because I think Phelan’s support has really changed that much (the margin of error is +/- 4% but because it needs to be showing a momentum upwards. And SF will transfer more to Labour than anyone else. I would wonder if Alyward’s numbers might be soft though and if say he was really on about 16% and Phelan got 12/13% then who knows. I still believe there is the chance of a 2nd FG seat there but it may now have to be the FF one.

I can’t see O’Malley transferring too heavily to Labour or FF when he is eliminated.

]]> By: Harlice Surel http://www.irishelection.com/2009/05/irish-times-tnsmrbi-european-constituency-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-119381 Harlice Surel Sat, 30 May 2009 00:35:15 +0000 http://www.irishelection.com/?p=6068#comment-119381 Fianna Fail look set to take two seats with The Cope and Harkin. Fianna Fail look set to take two seats with The Cope and Harkin.

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