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Irish Times TNS/MRBI European Constituency Polls

Read more about: Features, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Green Party, Labour Party, Libertas, Polls, Sinn Féin, Socialist Party     Print This Post

The early numbers are out from tomorrow’s breakdown of the European race. Keith had some of the early East constituency numbers online a while ago and the rest of the details is clearing up now. Yesterday had Fianna Fail on 20%, Labour on 23% and Fine Gael on 36% – interesting to see how the constituencies reflect this. Most figures are here, the ones below thanks to Keith.


NorthWest: Gallagher 20 (+1); Higgins 7 (-3); Harkin 19 (+1); Ganley 9 (nc); McLoughlin 9 (-1); O’Reilly 10 (+2)

Dublin: Mitchell 28 (+2) de Rossa 25(+4) McDonald 11 (-3) Ryan 9 (-2) Higgins 9 (÷2) De Burca 6, McKenna 5, Byrne 5, Simons 2%

South: Crowley 30 (+3); S Kelly 16 (-1); A Kelly 12 (-1); Ferris 10 (-2); Synott 14 (+2); Burke 10 (nc)

East: McGuinness 29 (-4); Childers 21 (+4); Aylward 20 (+1); Phelan 7 (-2); Sharkey 7

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6 Responses to “Irish Times TNS/MRBI European Constituency Polls”

  1. # Comment by Harlice Surel May 30th, 2009 01:05

    Fianna Fail look set to take two seats with The Cope and Harkin.

  2. # Comment by Dan Sullivan May 30th, 2009 17:05

    East looks a big ask for FG now, not so much because I think Phelan’s support has really changed that much (the margin of error is +/- 4% but because it needs to be showing a momentum upwards. And SF will transfer more to Labour than anyone else. I would wonder if Alyward’s numbers might be soft though and if say he was really on about 16% and Phelan got 12/13% then who knows. I still believe there is the chance of a 2nd FG seat there but it may now have to be the FF one.

    I can’t see O’Malley transferring too heavily to Labour or FF when he is eliminated.

  3. # Comment by Paddy Matthews May 30th, 2009 23:05

    East looks a big ask for FG now, not so much because I think Phelan’s support has really changed that much (the margin of error is +/- 4% but because it needs to be showing a momentum upwards. And SF will transfer more to Labour than anyone else. I would wonder if Alyward’s numbers might be soft though and if say he was really on about 16% and Phelan got 12/13% then who knows. I still believe there is the chance of a 2nd FG seat there but it may now have to be the FF one.

    At this stage in 2004, the MRBI poll showed Mairead McGuinness having almost caught up with Avril Doyle and the two of them on 17% and 16% (from memory).

    I can’t see O’Malley transferring too heavily to Labour or FF when he is eliminated.

    Frankly, O’Malley will have damn all to transfer.

    FG’s problem is that Phelan is an unknown outside of Kilkenny, whereas in 2004, Doyle was the MEP in situ and McGuinness was well-known although without any record as a politician.

    McGuinness has an attractive personality and is able to get votes on that basis that wouldn’t normally go to FG, but that has the downside that they’re more likely to go astray on transfers and are not going to be “manageable” to even up the two-candidate split.

    I also think Avril putting the boot into Childers did FG no good at all. If you’re going to attack a candidate for being a Foxrock princess, it’s unwise to have the attack coming from someone whose mannerisms make the average duchess look like a chavette.

  4. # Comment by Pete Baker May 30th, 2009 23:05

    Dan

    The report gives the margin of error as +/-2%

  5. # Comment by KN May 31st, 2009 01:05

    The +/- 2% MoE is for the 2000 strong national poll. The 500 strong regional polls for the Euros that make up the 2000 have a +/- 4.5% MoE.

  6. # Comment by Daniel Sullivan May 31st, 2009 18:05

    Pete, as KN notes the MOE for the Euros is higher than the national poll as the latter was poll of 2000 people version 500 for the Euro constituencies. O’Malley won’t have much but he could have 4/5%. Even the electoral giant that was Clifford T. Reid got nearly 2.5% last time. So 4/5% for O’Malley isn’t that hard to imagine.

    http://www.electionsireland.org/candidate.cfm?id=5777

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