If you are thinking of donating to a charity this year you might consider the Kerry Rape Crisis Centre for their support of a victim of sexual assault subject to horrific community bullying in Listowel.
Read more about: Polls 
Irish Times poll by TNS/MRBI is out tomorrow.
Party Ratings:
Fianna Fáil 21% (-1)
Fine Gael 38% (+6)
Labour Party 20% (-4)
Sinn Féin 9% (nc)
Green Party 3% (-1)
Government Satisfaction 10% (-4)
Leaders Satisfaction:
Brian Cowen 18% (-6)
Enda Kenny 33% (+3)
Eamon Gilmore 51% (+7)
John Gormley 25% (-4)
Post a comment below:
Dan Boyle sheds the green jersey. His Sunday Tribune comments (which only got a weblink late in the day) are noted by Reuters.
Ivor the Driver — full Seanad report. It was nice of Bertie to send Ivor’s letter of appointment to his Cork address.
How ossified is Irish politics? In the blink of an eye, Australia — which had no recession — replaces its Prime Minister.
I’m a victim of unique Irish blame culture, says Harney
Things Ministers don't do part 2: Harney is not really responsible for these clinial fuck-ups. Sure kick her over policy but not failure. Typical Irish begrudgerry.
Thanks for posting the details of that, jawdropping numbers. Im sure Fine Gael will be thrilled to get a massive bump, if they continued to hover at 32% it might have been major pressure for Kenny. 38% is big territory for them.
Labour will probably be happy to get to 20% and stay at 20% a drop on the TNS but a bump on the last Red C so its probably a fair reflection.
Some week in prospect of Fianna Failers eating each other! 21% is implosion territory!
Unfortunately this rarely translates in an election! Not that I think the alternative is definitely a better choice, I do think its time to give them a chance because this shower of wasters have made a mess of everything! How has Gormley got 25%? His hold on to power at any cost attitude is disgraceful!
And this is BEFORE people get their May pay cheques with the levies taken out to bail out the developers and banks.
FG have some momentum. Could they win an overall majority if an election was held this year? If not why not? Is Enda Kenny the last remaining break on achieving that?
Could we be looking at a wipe out of FF MEPs. 21% and falling isn’t enough for a quota (especially if it is split between two candidates) and if you don’t give Fianna Fail your number 1 you’re not going to give them your number 2 or 3. I think you could see the likes of Brian Crowley and Pat The Cope Gallagher lose out as even 100% of their running mate’s votes won’t get them over the line (and 100% transfer don’t happen) and then the transfers will dry up.
I never really trusted the Irish Times poll. They do some funny fiddling with the numbers to come to FF numbers which might not be the same adjustment with such a downturn. Have to wonder now am i being too generous in my predictions of the constituencies.
Is this the George Lee bounce?
This is a great poll result for FG, but the pity, from their perspective, is that the party can only benefit from its current surge in the upcoming local and European elections. No-one can reasonably predict what the poll ratings will be two or three years down the road in a general election. This government may not last its full term of course, but then again, it has no incentive to pull the plug on itself since both Fianna Fail and the Green Party would be at risk of electoral annihilation for the next two years at least.
One interesting aspect of the poll is that the surge of support to Fine Gael comes in spite of FG’s promise of a range of ‘tough measures’ in economic policy, arguably much tougher than FF’s current approach to public sector pay, jobs and benefits. But then again people are not fools and will have more respect for parties that come up with alternative policies than those who simply oppose everything for the sake of maintaining fleeting popularity with every sectional group in the country.
That’s where the Labour Party is at serious risk of being squeezed and could find itself adrift between FF and FG in the next general election, which for once, might actually be fought on policy issues and what sort of country we want to have in the 21st century. If that battle were joined right now, FG have a head start and possibly might end up needing only the support of a few independents or the Green Party, or maybe none of them at all, to form a government in a post-election scenario.
Labour’s Finance spokesperson, Joan Burton, unwittingly put her finger on one of Labour’s greatest weaknesses on Morning Ireland this morning when she attributed FG’s poll advance to the George Lee ‘bounce’ and seemed to suggest that ‘media exposure’ is the sole key to electoral popularity. Politics may indeed be ’show business for ugly people’ but the media also serves to expose lack of substance as much as it promotes the recognition factor.
@simon the Irish Times poll got the General election bang on in 2007 so I aint sure about mistrusting it. All of the pols and handlers treat it with the most respect.
But don’t they have a weighting system for FF where they give it them a 2-3% boost? The make up of that adjustment might need revising.
At just 21% I wouldn’t say Fianna Fail have a 3% weighting. That said if they come out of the upcoming elections on 18% then Cowen will have no choice but to resign on the night of June 5th (may not mean a general election just a change at the top).
I would agree with Simon that the normal FF adjustment might not apply now. Or more generally that the accuracy of the poll is entirely questionable now because the mind of the electorate has been so thoroughly stirred. In 2007 we were still in very still political waters. Now we are in the heart of a tempest. Surely there will be an effect on transfer patterns that is hard to predict.
But even if it is not possible to extrapolate Dáil seats from the poll, the overall picture is undeniable. This is a remarkable turnaround for FG. But I think one of the most important indications from this poll is that FG has taken not from FF, but largely from Labour.
And I think that while Labour is respectable at 20% and Gilmore is well liked, we can safely say that the old “FF or FG” dichotomy is back in force. Labour, had at least grounds for hope in 2002 that FG were going into decline and that eventually they, Labour, would become established as the second party. That hope must surely be dashed no. FG is back. And while FF languish at a poll rating similar to Labour, we all know that their support is unusually depressed by the current crisis and that with their heritage and formidable politcal machinery, their position as one of the two big parties can hardly be questioned.
In short, it looks like Labour has reached a plateau and in the main voters craving an alternative to FF are looking to the old rivals FG.