Ireland’s European Constituency Figures from Irish Times Poll

The four European constituencies are the focus of tomorrow’s Irish Times poll. I have some early numbers from the

Ireland East race:  (full numbers now below the fold).

Mairead McGuinness 33% – could be highest poller in the country

Liam Aylward 19%

Nessa Childers 17%

John Paul Phelan 9%

By the looks of it, only a Bertie Ahern style performance by McGuinness, romping over the quota will carry in Phelan (25%+1 being quota) like the good running mate. Great news for Childers and while it could be a net loss for Fine Gael it will be tough to keep two seats. It is ironic that Fine Gael on 38% in the polls might end up with a net loss of MEPs but I wouldn’t be surprised if HQ got in on the act here or in Munster to make sure that a second seat comes from somewhere (although Burke is nowhere at the moment, making intervention in the East far more likely).

Other figures were coming in slowly, but over in Ireland North & West Declan Ganley is on 9% – I will update as more comes in. In Munster Kathy Sinnott is behind Alan Kelly (3rd) but Toireasa Ferris is also polling relatively well for that last seat, no word on which of the Fianna Fail and Fine Gael pairs are in the front positions though money is on Kelly and Crowley. Pat ‘the cope’ is looking a good call for Fianna Fail. Figures below.

Dublin, South and North / West from Irish Times

Ireland North & West

Jim Higgins 20%

Pat The Cope Gallagher 19%

Marian Harkin 18%

Paraic MacLochlainn 10%

Ganley 9%

The interesting pattern from the three races is that Sinn Fein is immediately polling at 10% of over in the three constituencies. It is unlikely to be enough for Mac Lochlainn to succeed but it does point to a slight bump, possibly due to their role in Lisbon or an anti-government feeling among Fianna Failers who will never vote for Fine Gael (a small number, no doubt, but it is a small gain). The seats look tied up at present with a large gap back to Mac Lochlainn from the top three and none of the second runners (O Reilly or Mooney) coming into the reckoning. This could go through a number of counts though making order of eliminatin the only interesting angle – with the potential to bring a fourth candidate into the mix, possibly from a chunk of Ganley’s votes.

Dublin:

Gay Mitchell 26%

Prionsias De Rossa 21%

Mary Lou McDonald 14%

Eoin Ryan 11%

Patricia McKenna 8%

Joe Higgins 7%

Deirdre De Burca 6%

Eibhlin Byrne 5%

Caroline Simons 1%

The most interesting seat in the country with a guaranteed loss for a sitting MEP is going according to plan for the opposition. The Lisbon referendum rejection means that there should be an anti-Lisbon seat leaving Mitchell, De Rossa and Ryan to fight for two and McDonald, McKenna, Higgins and Simons to fight for one. At the current look it is probably McDonald who will take that seat and De Rossa and Mitchell the other two. FF on a total vote of only 16% a good 9% behind a single quota between them will be very worrying for its implications in the local and next general election. The figures for the party in Dublin are well below the national average in the low teens. The combined vote reflects this and the split ticket might cost them. McKenna is poised as spolier, as Dan noted below. Eliminations mean de Burca and Higgins could pass on there preferences, many of Higgins likely to go to McDonald or McKenna and who knows how many greens will give McKenna a 2nd preference? That could put her right in the frame to take that final seat.

South

Brian Crowley 27%

Sean Kelly 17%

Alan Kelly 13%

Kathy Sinnott 12%

Toireasa Ferris 12%

The really surprising number here is for Ferris. It is not expected she would do much better than Cullinane last time out but an intial response of 12% plus Sinnotts 12% confirms that there is another anti-Lisbon seat here. That should focus the mind of Alan Kelly who at 13% still has a long way to go. The other candidates (O’Keeffe and Burke) would like to think they have a place in the offing but unless Crowley or Kelly sail past the finish to put them in the running it would be unlikely. Dan Boyle will probably be disappointed not to be in the shake up, the most likely MEP from the Green Party has just resigned.