I’m Voting for whom? Candidate Profiles for the Dublin Euro Constituency

Well I couldn’t keep myself from the red meat a moment longer. This is the one that will have blood on the floor and, alongside the South, has so many engaging plotlines it will likely dominate proceedings. There are four sitting MEPs, Eoin Ryan (FF), Prionsias De Rossa (Labour), Gay Mitchell (FG) and Mary-Lou MacDonald (Sinn Fein). There are now only three seats after the constituency redraw. All four sitting MEPs are running for re-election and they have been joined by a roster of challengers from left and right. From the Socialist party to Libertas via independents and Greens there really does seem to be something for everyone in the list of candidates.

Eoin Ryan (Fianna Fail): Fianna Fail stalwart Ryan will surely fancy his chances of bucking the Fianna Fail trend this election. He also has a diploma in horticulture. Though he is in a dogfight, he may be one of the few of the soldiers of destiny that makes it to the finish post without missing limbs and no seat to show for it. He has buckets of political experience, a relatively inactive blog and light presence on the national airwaves. He arrived into office with 60,000 or so first preference votes – level with Mary-Lou and behind Gay Mitchell. The problem for Ryan is transfers and the electability of Fianna Fail. Like every other Euro constituency they have no idea how much the recent poll decline will translate into votes.Ryan’s typical dub profile and his strong imprint on the city in recent years should play in his favour but he is going to have to hope for more than blue by-lined posters to get in this time.

Gay Mitchell (Fine Gael): The election machine that is the Fine Gael Mitchell’s should secure Gay another period in Brussles, whether that was the plan or not is a moot point with the arrival of RTE’s George Lee. (Contray to the rumours, I find it hard to see two Mitchells representing Dublin South, I might be wrong.) Mitchell is taking the traditional tack to his campaign, not messing about with blogs or twitter and instead appearing on every radio show that will have him (floating ideas like a politics-only radio station). The Mitchell machine should be well oiled and motivated with Fine Gael riding high in the polls and it is very very hard to see the maths going against last election’s poll topper, considering he had a 30,000 vote advantage in first preferences.Mitchell’s place at the head of the poll shouldn’t suffer from the Lisbon fallout and will probably benefit from the positive sentitment toward Fine Gael. A good summer in prospect.

Mary-Lou MacDonald (Sinn Fein): It is a pet theory but this whole idea that a by-election in Dublin Central on the same day frustrated Mary-Lou may be ill proven. MacDonald flopped when she parachuted into the constituency and was embarassed by better run organisations with strong community links. Running her as a high profile candidate for the Euros and Bruke in Dublin Central gives Sinn Fein a chance at taking two seats where none should exist. As it stands MacDonald is the only sitting MEP who was against Lisbon and did very well from that campaign. She is a solid performer and a personable operator. The Sinn Fein machine had a full compliment of posters up on the morning of Wednesday 6th May which is perhaps a statement of intent. They are up and running with sufficient councillors to make May Lou a prospect for that third seat. It will be a matter for transfers to decide and she might look at Higgins and McKenna as welcome additions to the field – Simon’s transfers, if Lisbon motivated, will also be interesting.

Prionsias de Rossa (Labour): It seems like a three way fight for two seats behind Gay Mitchell and based on 2004 figures it is de Rossa who needs to up his game. At 54,000 first preferences it was transfers that brought him to the European parliament. With a seat less this time out Labour need to convert poll strength in the Dublin area into an MEP. Failure to do so will dent heavily the momentum that has built up under Eamon Gilmore. De Rossa is a fellow comrade from the Democratic Left days and supported Lisbon. His media performances can be patchy and perhaps he could do with a bit of the twitter magic that Susan O Keeffe has brought to the North&West. Labour are looking at younger voters, those who might be left down by the labour market  and De Rossa has a hill to climb to get there. As with Mary Lou the transfers from other left candidates will be central to deciding the outcome, only Higgins and McKenna were anti-Lisbon.

Deirdre de Burca (Green): It is probably a reflection on the press release more than the campaign that my first instinct is to describe de Burca as the inspiration for Mairead McGuinnes’ trouser suit. She is also a former Bray councillor and frequent guest on programmes hosted by Vincent Browne. De Burca moved to the Dublin constituency and took the mantle of Green challenger from Patricia McKenna, more on which anon. She has been very active (as a campaign) on twitter although it hasn’t been plain sailing much to the delight of our web roundup. De Bruca is very much onside with the Green party in government and her campaign has done little to rock that boat. Instead she has been canvassing heavily – very necessary to muster any vote of repute. She is currently a Green Party senator but suffers major profile issues in Dublin.

Caroline Simmons: The second face of Libertas’ anti-Lisbon campaign, Simons was a regular campaigner at referenda but is taking a leap trying to convert that campaigning style into votes in the Dublin constituency. For some she is the parties best chance of an Irish seat, yet a lot has to happen for her to get within shouting distance – firstly she needs a lot of first preferences, not just some grudging supporters but the kind of support (lower and middle income voters) who were the main driver of Dublin’s no vote and prime targets for Sinn Fein. She is a solid meida performer and an excellent debater, something that will be essential in being heard over the din of constituency hustings. However media performance is one thing and getting voters to support you is quite another. Simons has no base. That is the Libertas problem in Dublin and the North/West (O’Malley might do a tad better on that front from the IFA days). She is known for her ardent pro-life position and her performances for Libertas certainly injected a healthy dose of ‘social issues’ into their campaign. Though we might enjoy her scraps with almost every other candidate for some reason or another, there is little prospect of her securing one of the three seats as she is most likely transfer repellent. If she can get Fianna Fail to transfer as well as the likes of McKenna and Higgins, she might stay in with a shout but I can write that for de Burca, McDonald and others too.

Joe Higgins: Do I really need to profile Joe? Of all the candidates running this time he is the most immediately recognisable. Man of the workers, excellent Dail performer and personable chap, Joe was one of the most popular TDs with political observers. He destroyed Bertie on regular occasion with thanks to the speaking powers granted by the technical group. Joe is a socialist, he has always been a socialist and he will continue to be a socialist if you vote for him. He is unlikely to get enough votes to get to Europe but stranger things have happened and he will fight tooth and nail on the doors for it. Also on the list for a council ward just in case. Either way is, hopefully, a route back to the Dail for a man that was once one of the three socialists in the Dail.

Eibhlin Byrne: The Lord Mayor of Dublin is ostensibly running as a vote sweeper for north Dublin. In true form for the bottom of the ticket, the Lord Mayor has settled in for a short but tough fight to take a single seat for Fianna Fail in a constituency where they will likely struggle. If, as I expect, Ryan struggles with his vote as part of a wider party implosion, Byrne might quickly become the hope for a seat as the northside of Dublin, home to the Dublin Central mafia among other venerable FF “machines”, delivers its support. Being a well regarded mayor is no harm but it still only a mayor and to many voters across the constituency she is an unknown. She might do better than Ryan but the scale of that achievement will not be known until we see Fianna Fail’s turnout. She is in a win-win however, if she fails she has run on a bit of a profile and taken one for the team, if she wins she is safely in Brussels while a domestic meltdown occurs. I don’t think she is teflon enough to withstand any FF backlash though.

Patricia McKenna (Ind): The Green Partys original MEP, McKenna has split from her party – calling them hypocrites on the way – to run as an independent candidate in Dublin. One could be prompted to wonder if she thinks she will win or simply split de Burca’s vote (either a victory of sorts) but that is churlish, she is a sincere politician who hasn’t compromised her principles. That has forced her from a party where she was once central in a manner that was ill-fitting of a party of government. The response of the GP to her departure was a very large rush to drop the hatchet in her shoulderblades, which they felt was justified by the hassle she had caused of late – in Lisbon conference, running for NEC, in the government debates. It could backfire as some in the Green party move with McKenna out of sympathy, nostalgia and principle. That might be enough to hamper de Burca en route to a slug-fest for the final seat. McKenna has long been a Green campaigner and left-wing activist, vocal on Tara, Shell in Mayo, Green issues and equality. That means that she, like McDonald and Higgins is running for an anti-lisbon left oriented vote. They cannot all win (indeed at this rate none might win).