Brian Cowen makes another stab at that turnaround seech

It is feeling like 2007 all over again, the place is at fever pitch out on the canvass, people are taking politicians down a peg, a whole peg! Fianna Fail are trying but they are being beaten about the head by the news agenda, their partners in government and the party leader’s inability to grab the campaign, lead it and convince the public looks like it will cost Fianna Fail the election.

Then in 2007 we had a series of performances from Brian Cowen which turned the party around, rallied the troops and gave hope beyond Bertie Ahern. In the end even Bertie got his head in the game but for many it was 2007 that crowned Cowen as the heir apparent. So we arrive at Slane in Co. Meath where the Taoiseach gives another ‘state of the nation’ address. By our count his fourth effort at the thing.

So what did he say? Well his inspirational stuff included the following;

“I understand that and I want to explain to you tonight that we are making real progress, and that we have a way out that is working,” Mr Cowen said.

“And it’s not just me or my Fianna Fáil colleagues who are saying that. The ESRI and other commentators are now predicting that the decisions taken by the Government, allied with the flexibility of our economy and our people in reacting to the crisis, means that we are positioned to return to growth, even rapid growth, as the world economy turns, as early as next year.”

They are. Ish. As P O Neill pointed out the recent EU report on the Irish economy suggested that as things stand – leaving all policy decisions as they are and adding nothing else, the economy will run toward a decent mid-teens deficit. They need to look at a 5% figure for further extraction of GDP from the economy next December to hit their targets. And as Michael Taft has been pointing out, this is by no means a guaranteed way to acutally get us out of recover:

This seems too good to be true. In 2010, they are projecting the economy will still be losing ground (-1 percent). But in the succeeding five years, it will suddenly turn around and average something like 5 percent. This compares favourably with recent periods of growth.

No doubt Fianna Fail Ministers will be taking great comfort from all this. If only they can survive the upcoming democratic exercise (i.e. the elections) and the Greens tetchiness over the Programme for Government; if they can just get to 2012, the economy will not only have turned the corner but will starting to grow rapidly. They can go to the electorate and say – yes, it was tough, but it was worth it. It’s all coming right.

Yet, there is this nagging question – where is the growth, where are the jobs going to come from?

Enough of this dissent, we are talking state of the nation! Back to Cowen’s speech.

He said nobody saw the “size and depth” of the economic crisis in including the main opposition parties in the Dáil.

“Their hindsight may be clear now, but they were not so sharp eyed when the crisis was only around the corner,”

I call bullshit. The IMF had been copying and pasting the phrase about Ireland being painfully exposed to a property downturn into their reports since 2003. Morgan Kelly and Richard Curran in the ‘Futureshock’ programme on RTE received a fireball of criticism for speaking out. They were shouted down and threatened over the attempt to outline the problem. No Fianna Fail speech is complete without this addendum that they were blindisded. It is spin.

“While painful, the tough decisions we are taking are beginning to work. And I am confident that our plans will work, not just because they are the tough decisions, but because they are they are the right decisions. We still have a hard road ahead, but we are on the right road and together we will get there.”

Don’t abandon me, trust me to get us to 2012 and please don’t stay at home on June 5. A key speech (another flipping one) following an extended sit down interview. An attempt to connect to people, to speak their language? Nope, another speech to the Fianna Fail faithful. A homer if ever there was one.

And like the speech at the Dublin Chamber, I am left wondering, ‘so what?’