Labour – A Party Moving Toward Power?

Three very interesting articles in the wake of the Labour Party conference from Saturday (as well as the liveblog of the day). None of them are the pre-written tripe based on a script and some well chosen comments (e.g. “it was a well receieved speech”), Simon McGarr was down there and his takes makes for a really interesting perspective.

One of the most incisive of our bloggers, his telling of the events after lunch in the runup to the vote on the 21st Century Commission reforms was fascinating.

No interest among many journalists in venturing from the press room to witness the tension on the floor, instead writing the afforementioned pre-speech articles on the delivery of the speech.

The contrast between the bored, uninterested, even depressive mood in the press room and the hopping, informative engagement and life in the reporting online was too stark not to stay with me.

They missed an event which may well be monumental, if Simon gets it right.

The vote was called with a show of hands. To everyone’s surprise, a forest of yes votes were followed by a few lone saplings against. A long history of party arguments and division had prepared the hall to fear the worst. The roar that went up was the realisation that, beyond their own expectation, the Labour Party was preparing to win elections.

Deaglan is also in ponderant form. Following Saturday’s events and Gilmore’s press conference yesterday is this to be Labour’s hour? Why not? They have in Joan Burton a capable economics operator, a slew of enthusiastic young candidates – all very presentable and under the direction a more powerful head office. Ah there is always a but…

But can Labour make the breakthrough this time and become,  say, the second-largest party in Leinster House? They’ve never been more united: gone are the fractious internal wranglings of old. They have a very popular leader who has outshone Enda Kenny in the Dail – although his grasp of economics may not be much better than his Fine Gael counterpart’s. They have a very effective finance spokeswoman in Joan Burton who is on a par with Richard Bruton of Fine Gael as regards terrier-like effectiveness.

And yet, and yet . .  . the party still has to convince people it has the answers to the economic crisis. Some of those answers will be set out in a pre-Budget submission this week. The highlight of this is a 48 per cent tax rate on incomes over €100,000. This is remarkably similar to the Sinn Féin policy of 50 per cent on the same income category, which was quietly shelved during the last general election. I’m not sure it will have a lot of appeal and might alienate a middle-class vote that Labour was beginning to attract.

The old socialism chestnut hah? They have gone left, gone right, gone round the houses and to what avail? None. I wonder who is out of touch with the middle classes though when it is suggested that a 48% tax band for high earners wouldn’t get support. Depending on the level at which one pitches ‘high earnings’, the country has never been more willing to talk about who pays what in this country.

Rebalancing the tax base can become a cover for political inactivity – focussing on easy to cull PRSI tax hikes that are taken at point of payment rather than chasing annoying employers, self-employed and self-motivated businessmen.

Contrary to some views, I think the idea of putting jobs front and centre in any economic reform package is not only the right move, it is the only move that any government must look to take. This is where the third blog post caught our attention, over on Cedar Lounge WBS has it right. Start with jobs and work backwards, come to the table with plans that you believe in and think the public will support. The opposition’s job is not to appear cooperative with government on this economic crisis. That would be a tragedy of inaction. Proffer ideas by all means but there are by far and away  enough TDs in the Dail to get anything through the Dail.

Opposition is needed to reflect what different groups in society are feeling and at the moment 500,000+ unemployed people, many newly-unemployed professionals would like a coherent narrative to get them back into work, paying tax and contributing to growth that will get the public finances in order. Those people can be attracted by a Labour party that cement their competent narrative with good ideas.

Fine Gael’s policy document was interesting and no doubt it will be lifted in part by Lenihan, providing political capital, cover and ideas to government if they need it. The conference sets up a week where Labour may show that crowd from Saturday that aside from a leader who can connect to people and the potential for candidates that can win seats, they can bring policies to bear that will win convince the middle-classes that their vision and priorities are ones they share.

It will become cluttered ground though, Enda Kenny has the same opportunity on Saturday night and they already have a document in the public arena that was widely greeted as positive with government promising to life the good ideas.